Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Factory Orders also stronger
• Chicago PMI comes in at 56.5. Higher than expected
• Chicago PMI due at 9:45 AM ET. Est 53.3
• GBPUSD finds resistance against the 100 hour MA and 38.2% Fibo
• Swiss Finance Minister: CHF is still massively overvalued.
• USDCHF bounces off the 0.7990 (200 hour MA). 0.8021 eyed above.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.31.2011
• Canada Flaherty says Canada domestic economy remains strong
• USDCHF falls below 100 hour MA (other support levels) and falls lower
• Swiss economy minister Schneider says CHF situation is still difficult
• Canada GDP -0.4% for Q2. Worse than expected. MoM and YoY slightly better
• ADP comes in at 91K Less than expectations
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 31st 2011
• Challlenger Job Cuts up 47%. Total cuts 51,114
• Market prepares for job clues this morning

Factory Orders also stronger Posted: 31 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT Rise by 2.4% vs 2% expected. The prior month was revised higher to -0.4% from -0.8%. Durable Goods orders came in a touch higher than previously reported.  The Durables GOods Orders came in at 4.1% vs 4.0% reported earlier.

Chicago PMI comes in at 56.5. Higher than expected Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:45 AM PDT Prices paid          68.6  vs 71.7 Production           57.8  vs 64.3 New orders           56.9 vs 59.4 Order backlogs       49.6  vs 55.7 Inventories          52.9  vs 53.2 Employment           52.1  vs 51.5 Supplier deliveries  60.5 vs 55.9 The headline number is better than expectations but below the prior month at 58.8 and down from 61.1 in June.

Chicago PMI due at 9:45 AM ET. Est 53.3 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:43 AM PDT There are rumors of a stronger value.

GBPUSD finds resistance against the 100 hour MA and 38.2% Fibo Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:33 AM PDT The GBPUSD pushed against resistance against the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement  at the 1.6334 adn 1.63295 level respectively. The high reached 1.6332 and backed off. Traders will use this level to lean against with stops on a move above.   On the downside, traders will like to see a move back below the 1.6300 level to confirm that the correction higher from yesterdays sharp fall is over. This would take the price below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below.  If that level is broken, the pair has a double bottom from yesterdays low and todays low at the 1.6254 area.  A break below this level will be needed to get the pair moving more sharply to the downside.

Swiss Finance Minister: CHF is still massively overvalued. Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:19 AM PDT But comments that the Swiss will have to keep living with the overvalued currency.  Only the SNB can have an short term impact on the CHF Swiss govt to spend 870 mlm CHF for unemployment benefits and other measures to counter the strong CHF The pair has rebounded off the low support against the 0.7990 level but is finding sellers against the 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from August 19th to the high reached on Monday.

USDCHF bounces off the 0.7990 (200 hour MA). 0.8021 eyed above. Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:12 AM PDT The resistance above comes in at 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from the August 19th low.  A move above should trigger additional upside corrective potential.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.31.2011 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:07 AM PDT Good Morning: I am returning from a bit of vacation-and the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  We lost power for 3 days, and a few trees-but no major damage, and everyone is safe and healthy-which is the most important.  ADP reported that the private sector added 91K new jobs-a little less than the 100k that was expected.     All eyes will be on this Friday’s unemployment data,  and Non Farm payroll numbers. World equity markets are higher-and US  Dow Futures are up over 100 points at this time. Gold is higher-and Oil is hovering around the $90/bar level. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Flaherty says Canada domestic economy remains strong Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:06 AM PDT Fiscal results broadly consistent with plan Canada growth will be modest Canada must stay the course. BOC has more room to move than the Fed. Wants to avoid a bubble in real estate

USDCHF falls below 100 hour MA (other support levels) and falls lower Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:52 AM PDT   Overnight the USDCHF fell below the 100 hour MA and trendline support at the 0.8082 level. The price is also below the 38.2% of the move up from the August 19th low to the high reached on Monday.  That level comes in at the 0.8078 level.  Finally, the price is also below the trendline that was broken on the daily chart on Monday (see chart below).  That level comes in at the 0.8059.  The bearish technicals all lined up and this is pressuring the pair lower in NY trade. The next targets for the pair include the 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from August 19th  and the 200 hour MA (green line in the hourly chart above) at the 0.7990 level.  With the healthy move to the downside today, I would expect profit taking against the level with stops should the level (0.7990) be broken.

Swiss economy minister Schneider says CHF situation is still difficult Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:43 AM PDT Says another package for 2012 is being prepared SNB is responsible for monetary policy Regarding the second stimulus package, he comments it is not guaranteed if the CHF softens. The USDCHF and EURCHF fell overnight on the back of the failure to mention the Swiss Franc (i.e. comments on how to curb the strength) in normal Wednesday comments.

Canada GDP -0.4% for Q2. Worse than expected. MoM and YoY slightly better Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT Month on Month comes in at 0.2% which was a touch better than 0.1%. THe YoY was also a touch better at 2.0% vs 1.9% expectations. The USDCAD has moved lower initially on the news but has rebounded back higher. The data is sufficiently weak from one respect (QoQ) but not as bad on the others (MoM and YoY a touch better).   From a technical perspective, the 0.9769 level will be eyed by traders. This is the trendline from the bear flag formation.  A move below the line and traders will be looking for momentum to push the price to the next target at the lows from Monday at 0.97388.  A break of that level should open the door for further selling pressure.

ADP comes in at 91K Less than expectations Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:15 AM PDT Prior month revised lower to 109k from 114k.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 31st 2011 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:14 AM PDT

Challlenger Job Cuts up 47%. Total cuts 51,114 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 04:33 AM PDT Government layoffs were double from the prior month (18.5K vs 9.7k).  Retail had 5.9K cuts vs 11.2K last month (better) Financial rose to 8K vs 3K last month The number of cuts were down from 66,414 last month (16 month high) but still higher than the lows in 2010 and earlier this year.  The report does not report on job gains.

Market prepares for job clues this morning Posted: 31 Aug 2011 04:19 AM PDT  The monthly job picture starts to come in focus with the Challenger Job Cuts and the ADP Employment Change. The Challenger Job Cuts showed there were 66,414 announced cuts last month.  This was 59.4% higher than a year agos value.  Last year in August there were 34,768 cuts announced.  This was the second lowest in 2010. So expect another increase on a year on year basis. The ADP is an estimate of private sector jobs and is expected to show a rise of 100 K.  Last month the value came in at 114K. Actual Private sector jobs came in at 154K (from Labor department) so there may be a revision to the upside in this report.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610