Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCHF risk intensified

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 06:56 AM PDT

 

The CHF continues to be a safe haven, but you have to wonder when it will stop.  I think the risk in the pair is high in either direction. The technicals say down still (although consolidation has the market more balanced).  The fear of intervention move is in my mind. I never bet on intervention so staying out as risk is intensified.

USDJPY continues its fall down. Tests lows

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 06:42 AM PDT

The USDJPY is moving sharply lower with the low from July 29th at 76.23 the next target. Below that level, the price channel trendline (bottom) comes in at the 76.17.

What would get me bullish?  Holding the support trendlines, but even then, I would need to see the price move above hurdles above. If the price cannot get above certain levels and stay above, the bears remain in control.  The small hurdles are outlined in the chart below with 76.46, 76.56 and the 100 bar MA at the 76.61 level.  The topside trendline in the chart below comes in at the 76.66.

EURUSD falls sharply toward key trendline/MA support

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 06:18 AM PDT

The EURUSD moved sharply lower as the stock market gets ready to open (down > 200 on the Dow). The price tested trendline and the 100 hour MA levels and found some profit taking buyers.  The 200 hour MA above will be watched as resistance now. that level comes in at the 1.4261 level currently. A move above could then see the price move toward the 38.2% of the move down at the 1.4293 area.  Watching 1.4261.

Swiss economic minister says CHF is a matter for the SNB

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 06:17 AM PDT

Earlier he said that the businesses need to manage the currency strength and that he wished the consumer would benefit more from the lower import costs.

Moody’s says France AAA with stable outlook

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 05:57 AM PDT

There was talk of possible downgrade.  This is not the case.  However there was an article in a French publication that Fitch is less optimistic than others.

The Italian banks are also under pressure with UniCredit trading being halted. This may be contributing to the recent weakness in the EURUSD.

BoE syas CPI to be a little below 2%, growth outlook weaker than May

Posted: 10 Aug 2011 02:37 AM PDT

* squeeze on consumers to weigh on domestic demand

* outlook for global recovery deteriorated

* greatest risk to UK comes from Euro-area crisis

Gbp has weakened considerably with Gbp/Usd down at 1.6200 and Gbp/Jpy approaching 124.00.

French Industrial Production weaker than expected

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 11:55 PM PDT

French Industrial Production came in at -1.6%, weaker than the -0.1% expected

German CPI Stays Unchanged at 0.40%

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 11:05 PM PDT

Rumors of Swiss intervention thwarted by SNB’s comments

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 11:01 PM PDT

The Swiss National Bank’s spokesman Meier declines comment on Chf movement. In recent trade the franc has weakened against the Eur and Usd making new highs of 1.0473 and 0.7298 respectively.

James Chen Ask the Chartist 10:00AM- ON AIR NOW

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 02:24 PM PDT

Ask the Chartist with James Chen

James Chen – Ask the Chartist Wednesday at 10:00 AM- Join the live class now

Forex Trading Platform Class Wednesday 4:00PM w/Shawn Powell

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 02:24 PM PDT

Forex Platform Class Wednesday 4:00PM with FXDD Forex trainer Shawn Powell. Focus on support and resistance today Register now

FXDD Live Customer training on Mirror Trader Wednesday at 1pm with Oz Golan

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 01:25 PM PDT

FXDD Live Customer training on Mirror Trader Wednesday at 1pm with Oz Golan. You must be an FXDDAuto or FXDD Mirror Trader live account holder to attend. Register now

S&P corrects to 38.2% and bounces

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:32 PM PDT

For what it is worth, the S&P index has touched the 38.2% of the move up from the 2009 low.  Although it is contributing to a rebound, the implications for the “risk on” trade is still hazy. The dollar continues to be depressed against the CHF and the JPY. THe AUDUSD is trading near the highs for the day though, however, does the statement excite growth prospects? I am not so sure.  Volatility is still high, high, high.  Pick spots carefully. Be careful.  Risk is elevated.

USDCHF corrects 38.2% of the last leg down

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:03 PM PDT

From a technical perspective the USDCHF steps down and down. However, with the sharp decline I would be very cautious as fear of will increase and the SNB may just come in and intervene.  I would not buy with that hope but I would not necessarily sell either.

USDCHF moves below 0.7100. EURCHF approaches parity.

Posted: 09 Aug 2011 11:44 AM PDT

USDCHF moves through the trnedline support lines and falls like a rock. What was thought to be low levels is now lower and lower levels.  Traders who buy continue to be stopped out.  The latest line to get through broke at 0.7196.  The level above that was at 0.7228. Looking a tthe 5 minute chart if you put a fibonacci on the last leg down , the 38.2% retracement comes in at the 0.7160 level.

Meanwhile the EURCHF fell below its trendline and also fell like a rock. The acceleration of the trend saw the price move through trendline support at the 1.0145 level. The bulls still have the burdern of proof in this market. Expect very volatile markets.
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