Forex Market Updates & Commentary

AUDUSD tests 100 day MA at the 1.0645 level
Consumer Confidence at 44.5. Way weaker than expected
EURUSD consolidating in early NY trading
S&P Case Shiller 20 composite index comes in -4.52%
USDCHF comes off highs. Momentum fades above 0.8210 again. Levels eyed.
Canada Account 2nd highest on record. Industrial Product Price as expected. Raw Material Price down a larger -1.2%
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Feds Evan is worried about the pace of recovery
Feds Evans to speak on CNBC in 5 minutes
Fitch says French deficit plan should support their AAA rating
Cable testing support @ 61.8% hourly
German chancellor Merkel says she is confident that the ECB will keep inflation in check.
EU’s Barroso on the Wires
European August Economic Confidence Falls to 98.3, Survey 100.2
UK Consumer Credit & Lending Lower, Mortgage Aprovals Slightly Rise

AUDUSD tests 100 day MA at the 1.0645 level

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 07:06 AM PDT

The AUDUSD is testing the 100 day MA at the 1.0645. Key level for the pair. The price has been above it today. It has been below it today. The price has been supported by the break of the bull flag three trading days ago.

The pair will be fighting between USD weakness on weak data/QE3 possibility and risk off that could tilt the AUDUSD to the downside. The 100 day MA is the dividing line from a technical perspective.

Consumer Confidence at 44.5. Way weaker than expected

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 07:00 AM PDT

51.9 for Expectations. Last 74.9.
33.3 for Present Situation Last 35.7

“Jobs hard to get” at the highest since November 2009. This came in at 49.1 vs 44.8 last month

EURUSD consolidating in early NY trading

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 06:30 AM PDT

The EURUSD has been consolidating after the fall overnight. The EURUSD trended to the downside, helped lower by an Italian bond auction which was less than stellar. The dovish Chicago Fed Evan’s comments led to some dollar selling and the pair moved higher above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above).

The 1.4440 area (38.2% of the days range) and the 100 hour MA at the 1.4449 level remain upside resistance levels. Staying below keeps the bears satisfied. Moving above and market sellers are likely to be disappointed. Downside targets include the 200 hour MA at the 1.4415, the low at 1.4384, the trendline at 1.4373

The US Consumer Confidence will be released at 10 AM. At 2:00 the Fed Minutes will be released. The Confidence numbers are expected to be weak. The minutes will be eyed to any further details to why the Fed chose to change the language to include that rates will likely remain unchanged until mid 2013.

The markets remain non committed to a trend. Trading becomes an exercise in patience.

S&P Case Shiller 20 composite index comes in -4.52%

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 06:03 AM PDT

The MOM came in a -0.6%. The next data release will be the Conference Board Consumer Confidence. The expectation is for a sharp fall to 52 from 59.5. This would be the lowest level since October 2010 when it came in at 49.90.

USDCHF comes off highs. Momentum fades above 0.8210 again. Levels eyed.

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:56 AM PDT

Fed’s Evans dovish comments sent Gold prices higher and the USDCHF reverted back to its safe haven mode and moved lower. The price tested support against the 0.8184-88 level (see chart above). The level corresponds with the 38.2% of the days range. This level will be eyed closely by the market to determine the markets commitment to the bullishness seen over the last few weeks. If it breaks below, the market will likely show continued liquidation.

On the topside, the 0.8210 level remains a key level. The level corresponds with the 38.2% of the move down from the November 2010 high. The hourly chart below shows that over the last two days the price has moved above this key level, but each time the move has been brief and the price has reversed lower. This worries the bulls.

The chart below shows the daily chart and the importance of the 0.8210 level. The 38.2% of the move down from the November 2010 high comes in at the level. The level seems to be slowing the move higher (at least for the time being). If momentum can be developed above the level (and so far it has not), then the potential exists for a move toward the 100 day MA. The USDCHFhas not been above this key moving average since. February 2011 when the price moved above the area for a few days befoe moving back lower. First things first however. A move above 0.8210 is needed.

Canada Account 2nd highest on record. Industrial Product Price as expected. Raw Material Price down a larger -1.2%

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:36 AM PDT

The Raw Material Prices fell a surprising -1.2% for the current month. This is on the back of a -2.4% decline last month.

The Current Account fall was the second largest on record on the back of exports falling and imports rising. The higher Canadian dollar seems to be having an effect on the flow of trade in Canada. The USDCAD has move modestly higher on the data.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Feds Evan is worried about the pace of recovery

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:10 AM PDT