Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The FXDD Forex Webinar Education Series: Register this weekend.
• The Week Ahead in Trading this Monday (August 22nd) at 9:30 AM
• NZDUSD moves toward key 100 day MA and Fibo Retracement level.
• FT article talking about the funding issues that European banks are having
• USDCHF moves above intraday resistance. Dollar better bid
• Weekly Forex wrap up show – Rebroadcast
• BOJ considers possible additional easing – Sankei report
• EURUSD bulls and bears fighting it out now.
• ECB Stark says bond purchases are temporary to buy time
• EURUSD back down testing the 100 hour MA/ 38.2% of the days range
• NZDUSD tests resistance and comes back off
• GBPUSD steps higher. Eyes topside trendline resistance
• USDJPY breaks through all time lows and stops triggered

The FXDD Forex Webinar Education Series: Register this weekend. Posted: 19 Aug 2011 01:11 PM PDT Get a head start this weekend by registering for the FREE FXDD Webinar series.  Below is a listing of the webinars that are available.    ——————————————————————————————————————————- 1.  Shawn Powell returns on Monday with his Forex Basics webinar on Monday at 4 PM EST.  Come and listen as Shawn takes attendees through the basics that will get the new trader moving forward in the forex market. ——————————————————————————————————————————- 2.  On Tuesday, James Chen will conduct his “Talking Technicals” webinar at 12:30 PM EST. Come in and hear the current technical views of FXDD’s Charterd Market Technician and Director of Technical Research and Education ——————————————————————————————————————————- 3.  At 4 PM on Tuesday, Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency Analyst will continue in his Traders Course series that is focused on looking at the individual currencies and what makes them tic.  On Tuesday he will outline the ins and outs of trading the Australian Dollar.  ——————————————————————————————————————————- 4.  On Wednesday, James Chen is back with his “Ask the Chartist” webinar.  It is your time to get your questions in and drive the show.   The webinar will be held at 10:00 AM EST.  ——————————————————————————————————————————-

The Week Ahead in Trading this Monday (August 22nd) at 9:30 AM Posted: 19 Aug 2011 12:53 PM PDT Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM-  CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

NZDUSD moves toward key 100 day MA and Fibo Retracement level. Posted: 19 Aug 2011 12:31 PM PDT In an earlier post, I warned of a move below the 100 bar MA and the 50% retracement. The price looked to hold against these key intraday levels (see chart above), but succumbed to the downside. The price is now down testing the 100 day MA and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2011 low. Those levels come in at the 0.8182 and 0.8156 levels respectively. The low has reached 0.8170 level – at the lows for the day and week.  Not a good ending for the risk currency pair.

FT article talking about the funding issues that European banks are having Posted: 19 Aug 2011 12:24 PM PDT http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e285f5ce-ca67-11e0-a0dc-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1VVIi2xST Banks need to fund themselves in the interbank market. When the risk of default rises, those banks have trouble securing funding. They may also tap the commercial paper market and that may dry up.  Cash is king in times of trouble and if banks horde capital, the funding will have to come from the central bank(s).  The article does note that it is not as dire as the Lehman days but the tide is turning for the worst.

USDCHF moves above intraday resistance. Dollar better bid Posted: 19 Aug 2011 11:19 AM PDT The USDCHF has moved above the 100 bar MA after two tests found sellers (see chart above).  The pair might be getting cold feet as the weekend approaches and threat of action from the SNB is a possibility.   It may just be Friday afternoon flows. What we have seen, however, is a reversal from the dollar selling. The USDJPY has moved back above the 76.30 level (helped by reports of BOJ threats). The EURUSD is wandering above and below the 100 hour MA (but does remain above the 38.2% of the days range at 1.43796 (see chart below). The GBPUSD is well off the highs and looks toward support against the 100 hour MA and trendline at the 1.6465 level. It is Friday. The week is coming to a close so anything can happen. What I warn is that the level of risk over the weekend is “Red Alert”.  The BOJ is in play. The SNB is in play.  The Fed has the potential to start leaking some ideas.  Jackson Hole will be awaited next week and it is likely they hold out. Plus a fight for the weakest currency is starting to take hold.  IF the US wants to continue to pursue a weak currency, what about the JPY and the CHF?  They want one too!  Does the UK want GBPUSD above 1.6600.  Trichet and the inflation hawks of the ECB always want a strong EURO but is it good for their economies in this time of austerity tightening, credit tightening, and global slowdown.  So be sure to account for the increased risk.  My mission is to make the most amount of money with the least amount of risk.  Risk is increased.

Weekly Forex wrap up show – Rebroadcast Posted: 19 Aug 2011 11:16 AM PDT Weekly Forex wrap up show this Friday at 12:30 PM. Greg Michalowski teaches the class this week. Watch the Rebroadcast

BOJ considers possible additional easing – Sankei report Posted: 19 Aug 2011 10:22 AM PDT

EURUSD bulls and bears fighting it out now. Posted: 19 Aug 2011 09:08 AM PDT The trend higher today took the price to the highs from yesterday’s trade and has come back off. The move lower corrected 38.2% of the days range and the move back higher resumed. Now the price is testing the 38.2% of the move down.   Key level for the pair as the week comes to a close.  We could see the market continue back higher or move back to the support at the 1.4378 just as easily.

ECB Stark says bond purchases are temporary to buy time Posted: 19 Aug 2011 08:58 AM PDT Not central banks job to lower rates for debt ECB intervenes because mkts don’t function Unresponsible to call ECB a Bad Bank (who did?) ECB hasnt taken on as big a risk as other Central banks (ie. the Fed?) Only providing liquidity to healthy banks Banks mistrust not as bad as after Lehman Inflation risk low as long as economy is subdued Potential for inflation if growth picks up All developed economies have pub finance problems

EURUSD back down testing the 100 hour MA/ 38.2% of the days range Posted: 19 Aug 2011 08:32 AM PDT The EURUSD has rotated back lower after reaching the target resistance (see prior post) at the 1.4450 level (high reached 1.4451).  The price is now back down at the 1.4387-91 area where the midpoint of the week and the 100 hour MA is found.  That level started the rally higher.  Will it now hold support? If the level gives way, additional support at the 1.4378 will be eyed.  This is the 38.2% of the days trading range.  A break of the 1.4378 takes a lot of wind out of the sails. Holding opens the market to a rotation back higher. It is likely however, that the high is in place and the afternoon will be more range bound.

NZDUSD tests resistance and comes back off Posted: 19 Aug 2011 08:14 AM PDT The NZDUSD moved sharply higher with the dollar selling but ran into resistace against the 38.2% and the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).  The move lower was quick , but the pair found support against the 100 bar MA and the 50% of the days trading range on the 5 minute chart (see chart below). Holding that level sent the price back higher but the rally stalled before the 200 hour MA at the 0.8283 level and a new move lower ensued. The up and down action on the NZDUSD is indicative of a more balanced market.  Staying below the 38.2% of the weeks high to low range (see chart above), has the bears feeling a bit better. A move below the 0.8237 level and then the 50% retracement at the 0.8231 will give them more confidence to the downside.

GBPUSD steps higher. Eyes topside trendline resistance Posted: 19 Aug 2011 07:42 AM PDT The GBPUSD held 100 hour MA and trendline support and with the dollar weakness today, the price has moved through topside target after target. The last level to get through was the 3 month high at the 1.6600 level.   The next key target is the 1.6630 level which is the parellel trendline resistance level.  I would expect sellers/profit takers against this level, with a break above triggering additional stops. On the downside look for support against the 38.2% (yellow line in the chart below) at the 1.6564 level.

USDJPY breaks through all time lows and stops triggered Posted: 19 Aug 2011 07:15 AM PDT The weight of the US dollar has pushed the USDJPY through the record low floor and stops have been triggered. There is no news that has prompted the fall that I can see.  There were little in the way of bids below old lows.  The price fell to a low of 75.93 and is now rebounding. The market will be watching the 76.20 level as close resistance and then the 76.28/30 area.  Stay below and the pressure remains from a technical perspective.  Move above and the move was likely stop driven. There is also talk that options triggers at 76.25 and 76.00 may have been a contributing factor.

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