Thursday, August 25, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Fitch, S&P and Moody’s reaffirms Germany’s AAA rating

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 07:54 AM PDT

The rumor of a downgrade which were in the market and may have contributed to the sharp fall in the German DAX index.  The EURUSD remains below the 1.4346 low which was the low for the week before todays break lower.

New week lows for the EURUSD

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 07:49 AM PDT

The narrow 153 pip range for the EURUSD has been extended below the 1.4346 low fom Monday.  The price is also now below the 100 day MA at the 1.4364 level today.  The next key target will be the 1.4260-68  area. This is the 38.2% of the move up from the July low it also was the low from last week.

EURUSD makes a break to the downside

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 07:49 AM PDT

The EURUSD has taken an early break to the downside on the back of German concerns, and Greek concerns (not requesting new loan program).  The price is now down testing the low for the week at the 1.4346 level.  The range for the week has been a narrow 153 pips which is very narrow.  The expectation would be for an extension of that range before the end of the week (if not the next hour). The topside resistance now comes in at the 1.4372 level where the trendline was broken.

IMF Spokesman:Greece has not requested a new IMF loan program.

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 07:32 AM PDT

IMF_EU distribution of financial support for Greece not set in stone.

This is curious news and makes you wonder “why not?”  The EURUSD is moving lower on the report.

German stocks sell sharply lower

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 07:22 AM PDT

  • German stocks under pressure on the back of a rumored short selling ban. 

 

In other German news the finance minister says EFSF in current size will be sufficient.  Also the ruling party may delay a rescue vote until September 29th from September 23rd . 

 

Berkshire Hathoway to invest 5 billion in Bank of America

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 06:12 AM PDT

The announcement sent the risk pairs back higher.  Shares of Bof A are up $1.50. 

The EURUSD surged higher intially. Came back down and is now back above the 1.4433 level.  The topside resistance is at the 1.446 level where trendline resistance is found.  A move above targets the high for the week at 1.4499.

US think tank says SNB to take more drastic measures with regard to its currency strength

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 05:42 AM PDT

This has sent the USDCHF and EURCHF higher

Better jobless claims. Now what?

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 05:41 AM PDT

I know it is early in the day, and it is August 25th and Bernanke’s long awaited speech at Jackson Hole is tomorrow, but I heard a market voice in my head say “Jobless claims better. Now what?”

The EURUSD intially moved higher on the thought that good news is good news for risk and that seems to include the EURO now, but after testing the midpoint of the days rand at the 1.4431, the price has moved back lower as good news may mean no QE3 tomorrow which is not good for the stocks, which is therefore bad for the risk (which seems to include the EURO).

For the week, the EURUSD has a low of 1.4346 and a high of 1.4499. The 153 pips range is a very narrow low to high trading range. This suggests that if not today, tomorrow will have an extension of the range.

So what should trader’s look for? Clearly, over the last few days some battle lines have been drawn.

On the downside, the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA are near each other at the 1.4402 and the 1.4395 levels respectively. The last few days has seen the price test the level a number of times and each time the price has bounced (see chart above). A move through these levels puts the bears in charge for a test of the weeks lows – if the price can stay below these levels.

On the topside, A trendline off the highs on the hourly chart show resistance at 1.4467 currently. If the price can breach this level, the bulls should take control and force the pair higher.

Jobless Claims Rise Again, Continuing Claims Improve

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 05:33 AM PDT

Jobless Claims:  Survey: 405K  Actual: 417K  Prior: 408K  Revised: 412K

 

Week Ending 8/20 vs 8/13
Change: 5,000 vs 13,000
Percent Change: 1.2% vs 3.3%
4-Week Moving Avg: 407,500 vs 403,500

 

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3700K  Actual: 3641K  Prior: 3702K  Revisad: 3721K

Webinars Today at 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM. Register here

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 05:05 AM PDT

Charting the Majors FREE Webinar at 9:30 AM EST.  Join us by CLICKING HERE TO REGISTER

————————————————————————————————————————————

The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski will focus on the Canadian Dollar and those things that influence the moves in the currency.  This is a continuation of the summer series that has been looking at the different countries and their currencies. CLICK HERE TO REGISTER.

Will Jobless Claims Fall Below 400K Today?

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 04:59 AM PDT

 

 

NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 25th 2011

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 04:56 AM PDT

BOE Weale comments from speech in Doncaster

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 04:32 AM PDT

  • Face contagion from EU and US…Cause for concern
  • Banks are better capitalized and can face risks
  • There is downside inflation risk. Lessens the need for rate increase
  • Oil Prices drop is silver lining for the economy
  • BOE has tools for further stimulus if needed
  • Could buy long dated bonds but do not need see need for bond buying

 

 

 

UK CBI reported sales (m/m) -14 vs. -10 expected.

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 03:06 AM PDT

Pimco’s Gomez says Bernanke will not announce a fresh round of QE tomorrow.

Posted: 25 Aug 2011 03:01 AM PDT

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