Forex Market Updates & Commentary

German government spokesman says France/Germany determined with European partners
EURUSD moves closer to October midpoint at 1.3695
GBPUSD moves toward intraday resistance levels
Moody’s expects US economy to grow modestly in 2012
Bank of Canada Carney says there is considerable stimulus in Canada
Weaker ISM tests market. Weak headline but….
US Construction Spending and ISM Data All Lower
EURUSD back up to 1.3650-55 area. Bulls and bears more balanced now it seems
Early elections and referendum are to be discussed by the Greek cabinet
Stocks open down 200-250 in first few minutes of trading
Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell
EU Van Rompuy says fully trust Greece will honour commitments
EURUSD continues slide lower. 1.3603 is the next channel target
Six Greek party members call for Papendreou to resign
NY Morning Forex Commentary for Nov 1st 2011

German government spokesman says France/Germany determined with European partners

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:39 AM PDT

…that summit decisions will be adopted ASAP.

EURUSD moves closer to October midpoint at 1.3695

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:33 AM PDT

The midpoint of the October range at the 1.3695 level is approaching and should provide some resistance/profit taking on the first test. The support remains below at the 1.3650-56 area. A move above the midpoint would target the 1.3705 level which is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.

GBPUSD moves toward intraday resistance levels

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:18 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has moved off the lows and looks to test the intraday resistance levels against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% of the range today. Those levels come in at the 1.5963-66 area. On the hourly chart the price fell below the 38.2% of the move up from the October 7th low at the 1.5960 level earlier today. This level can be added to the resistance targets for the pair making 1.5960-66 resistance.

A move above these levels should solicit additional buying with the 200 hour MA at the 1.5978 level the next key target for the pair. A break above this level opens the door for further covering in the pair with 1.6000 the next target.

Moody’s expects US economy to grow modestly in 2012

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:09 AM PDT

Major deviation from that path could have ratings implications

Bank of Canada Carney says there is considerable stimulus in Canada

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:08 AM PDT

Outlook as weakened since July
Growth to slow through Mid 2012 and then pick up
Makes no mention of stimulus withdrawal and says the BoC will set monetary policy consistent with achieving inflation target

Weaker ISM tests market. Weak headline but….

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:03 AM PDT

New Orders up to 52.4 from 49.6
Employment flat at 53.5 vs 53.8
Inventories fell to 46.7 from 52
Order Backlog up to 47.5 from 41.5

The headline is weaker but the pieces with inventories down make it not so bad. The EURUSD fell on the news (around 0 pips but is near the midpoint again. The 1.3650-55 remains a key level today.

US Construction Spending and ISM Data All Lower

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Construction Spending MoM: Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 1.4% Revised: 1.6%

ISM Manufacturing: Survey: 52.0 Actual: 50.8 Prior: 51.6

September vs August 2011
Prices Paid: 50.8 vs 51.6
Production:  50.1 vs 51.2
New Orders:   52.4 vs 49.6
Backlog of Orders:  47.5 vs 41.5
Inventory Change: 46.7 vs 52.0f
Employment: 53.5 vs 53.8

ISM Prices Paid: Survey: 55.0 Actual: 41.0 Prior: 56.0

Prices paid comes in significantly lower then we were expecting.

EURUSD back up to 1.3650-55 area. Bulls and bears more balanced now it seems

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PDT

The EURUSD is back up testing the 1.3650-55 area. This was the lows from Mid October and is also the 38.2% of the NY move lower (see chart below).

The low for the day, tested the channel trendline on the hourly chart. The testing and the holding of this trendline seems to have balanced some of the bias among market traders (bulls and bears). The EURUSD has moved from 1.41697 to 1.3607 so far this week (562 pips). This action is ahead of FOMC, ECB and Unemployment on Friday. Above 1.3655 next targets 1.3675 area (trendline on the 5 minute chart). A move above that could see a move toward the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3712 area (moving down).

Early elections and referendum are to be discussed by the Greek cabinet

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:37 AM PDT

Greek’s Papendreuu calls emergency cabinet meeting at 1600 GMT

Stocks open down 200-250 in first few minutes of trading

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT

Lots of red on the Big Board.

Nasdaq down -80 points
S&P down -28 points

Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT

Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell- Greg will be teaching another special class today. Be sure to attend. Register now here

EU Van Rompuy says fully trust Greece will honour commitments

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:55 AM PDT

Damage control is in full force as Van Rompuy weighs in. He feels confident that Greece will honour commitments in relation to Euro area and the international community.

The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.3652-55 now (lows from mid October). On the downside, the 1.3603 is channel trendline support.

EURUSD continues slide lower. 1.3603 is the next channel target

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:44 AM PDT

The EURUSD has continued to slide in NY trade as Greek referendum threatens the Eurozone Greek rescue. If the referendum vote is “No” a full Greek default cannot be ruled out.

The EURUSD is now trading below the lows from mid October (below 1.3652-55). This is now topside resistance for the pair. On the daily chart the next target for the pair comes in at the 1.3565 level which is the 61.8% of the October rally.

Before that level, the 1.3603 level on the hourly chart is channel trendline support (see chart below). A move below this line should not be ignored.