Forex Market Updates & Commentary

ECBs Weidmann Speaks in Berlin
Berlusconi wins budget vote, but does not have majority. The oppositions abstains and abandons the leader.
Berlusconi Wins Budget Vote Without Absolute Majority
USDJPY stops triggered and the pair falls
US Economic Optimism Down Slightly, Jolt Jobs Rise
GBPUSD breaks above trendline for 2nd time today
EURUSD shows bullish tendencies but action choppy. 1.3830 are the next target for the pair.
Italy to vote on budget at 1600 GMT.
NY Morning Forex Commentary for Nov 8th 2011
Canada Housing Starts 207.6 vs Expected 195.0 and Higher Then Prior 205.9
BOC Carney says world is on the cusp of another retrenchment of global liquidity
Greece’s two major parties have not reached a deal yet on the coalition government: Source
New Greek PM will be decided soon
US NFIB Small Business Optimism comes in at 90.2 vs 90 Expectations
US Small Business Optimism at 90.20

ECBs Weidmann Speaks in Berlin

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 07:21 AM PST

Says:

Monetary analysis may gain importance at ECB
Stable prices should be key goal for central bank
Line between fiscal, monetary policy being blurred
Leveraging EFSF with currency reserves is prohibited
Hyperinflation showed why, monetary financing is wrong
Musn’t lose sign of inflation goal during crisis
ECB may extend monetary policy horizon
German government should not weaken fiscal stance
Aim is to apply policy symmetrically over cycle
Best not to overburden central banks
Cant print money to finance public debt

Berlusconi wins budget vote, but does not have majority. The oppositions abstains and abandons the leader.

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 07:15 AM PST

The question now is will there be pressure for a vote of confidence and/or more pressure for the leader to resign.

Opposition leader Bossi, says Italy runs risk of losing access to financial markets in the coming days.

He also says that vote shows Berlusconi government no longer has majority. Berlusconi party has 308 votes – enough to pass the vote – but lacks the majority within the coalition government that has been in place. So the coalition is falling apart and they will likely force a resignation from Berlusconi.

The EURUSD has fallen on the news and trades back below the 1.3800 currently. The 1.3812 level will be eyed above. Other support at the 1.3783 which is the 50% of the days range and bottom channel support.

Berlusconi Wins Budget Vote Without Absolute Majority

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 07:14 AM PST

USDJPY stops triggered and the pair falls

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 07:12 AM PST

US Economic Optimism Down Slightly, Jolt Jobs Rise

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 07:02 AM PST

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: Survey: 41.0 Actual: 40.6 Prior: 40.3

JOLTs Job Openings: Actual: 3354 Prior: 3056 Revised: 3129

GBPUSD breaks above trendline for 2nd time today

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 06:59 AM PST

The GBPUSD failed on a break above topside trendline earlier today. The second move through is showing more support of the break and the pair is trading at new day highs.

The 61.8% of the move down from the August high comes in at the 1.6102 level. This level is being tested at the moment. Above that level, the 200 day MA at the 1.6139 level becomes the next target for the pair (see daily chart below). The high at the end of October came in at 1.6164. This will be another target for the pair.

EURUSD shows bullish tendencies but action choppy. 1.3830 are the next target for the pair.

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 06:14 AM PST

There is a report that Greeks have decided on Papademos will be the new PM , taking over for the maligned Papendreuou. The new leader would head a coalition government which it is hoped would allow more to be done. The EURUSD seems to be applauding the move as the pair has moved to new highs in the last few minutes of trading.

From a technical perspective, the price is higher on the day and above key technical levels like the downward sloping trendline, the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November 1st low to the high reached on Friday. Those levels come in at the 1.3758 to 1.3768 area currently. Staying above these levels keep the intermediate bias positive for the pair.

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair has moved above the high from yesterday at the 1.3812 level in the last move higher. This should keep the bullish bias in tact for the pair. The high for the week is at the 1.3830 level. That is the next target. This is also near the top channel trendline in the pair. Look for some profit taking against the level on the first test at least.

Above the 1.3830 next targets the 1.3851 level (38.2% of the move down from the October high) and the high for the month at 1.3870.

Italy to vote on budget at 1600 GMT.

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 05:58 AM PST

There is a report that the Italians will vote on budget at 1600 GMT (11 AM ET). The thought is if it fails, Berlusconi will resign. If it passes, there may be a vote of confidence for Berlusconi scheduled. As of this moment, there is no vote of confidence scheduled.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Nov 8th 2011

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 05:40 AM PST

Canada Housing Starts 207.6 vs Expected 195.0 and Higher Then Prior 205.9

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 05:15 AM PST

BOC Carney says world is on the cusp of another retrenchment of global liquidity

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 04:51 AM PST

BOC ready to boost liquidity if needed
Euro banks can cut dividends, raise contingent capital
European banks can de-lever by selling US dollar assets

Greece’s two major parties have not reached a deal yet on the coalition government: Source

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 04:42 AM PST

New Greek PM will be decided soon

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 04:34 AM PST

According to Greek government spokesman.
The PM has said it will probably be settled tonight and has said farewell to his cabinet.
The EURUSD has moved higher on the comments with new day highs being reached for the pair.

US NFIB Small Business Optimism comes in at 90.2 vs 90 Expectations

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 04:32 AM PST

US Small Business Optimism at 90.20

Posted: 08 Nov 2011 04:32 AM PST