Friday, November 4, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD shows some signs of upside life

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:56 AM PDT

The pair has moved made a new hour long high and moved briefly above the 1.3737 level.  Activity remains choppy.  The bottom pickers will be looking for further upside momentum. The burden of proof remains with the buyers. A move above the 1.3744 level will be eyed next.

IMF could act quickly to provide further funds to EFSF…

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:47 AM PDT

…once Europes bailout plan is solidified.

Canada’s Harper says no intention to contribute to the European bailout

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:27 AM PDT

Will do what they can to insure financial stability

Canada’s Harper disappointed with the latest employment

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:20 AM PDT

He believes Canada will avoid a recession.

EURUSD holding against the intraday resistance

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:16 AM PDT

The last leg down in the EURUSD has the 38.2% at the 1.3740 level . The low for the day is 1.3715.  A break below 1.3715 opens up more downside. A move above the 1.3740 could trigger some profit taking.  Bias remains down, but choppy two way trading is dominating now.

G20 final communique says G20 stands ready to ensure additional resources for IMF can be mobilized…

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:13 AM PDT

….They just don’t know how they will go about doing that just yet.

They cite options for boosting IMF  include bilateral contributions, SDRs and Payments to a special structure.  I am not sure that the money is actually flowing into these options yet.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Rises to 90.6

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Sarkozy comments on the newswires

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 06:30 AM PDT

  • Europe has given message to Greece over EUR
  • Praises Italy for measures to boos confidence
  • G20 to meet in Feb to explore various options for boosting IMF resources
  • Not decided on different options for IMF
  • Big trade surplus countries commit to boost domestic demand
  • Capital controls are now seen as necessary tool to fight instability
  • Chinese Yuan is candidate for IMF SDR
  • IMF instruments like short term credit line are being considered
  • France will fight for transactions tax
  • G20 looking for ways to boost EFSD via the IMF
  • IMF Special Drawing Right identified as possible way to boost EFSF

The comments highlight the idea that the money is not flowing directly to the EFSF.  The EFSF cancelled an auction this week.   Merkel commented that the G20 countries are not looking to invest in EFSF.   So the Eurozone is now looking toward the IMF for funding but no plan is decided.  Just ideas.  Money is scarce and no one seems willing to part with it. 

 

EURUSD and GBPUSD move below 100 hour MA

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 06:19 AM PDT

Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA levels at the 1.3778 (currently for the EURUSD ) and 1.5993 (for the GBPUSD).

For the EURUSD , the next target for the pair comes in at the 1.37375 area. This was a nice floor in yesterdays trading for the pair and is also the 50% of the move up from the low this week.  A move below this level would open the downside for further selling in the pair

For the GBPUSD, staying below the 1.6000 level now targets its 50% retracement of the week at the 1.5967 and then the 1.5945 level. 

EURUSD remains contained after report

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:47 AM PDT

The EURUSD whipped around at 8:30 on the weaker headline, stronger revisions and is now working through what it wants to do.

The range took the price above the 13851 (38.2% of the move down from the October 26th high to the low) – reaching a high of 1.3867.  The low post the report has come in at the 1.38049. The midpoint of the range comes in at the 1.3836 level.

On the hourly chart, the price moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the late October high at the 1.3851 but that move was short lived. Nevertheless, this level will be eyed this morning on any rallies toward it. Sellers against the level should lead to rotation back down – and continued direction uncertainty. A move above and there could be some further gains toward the highs and the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level.  

On the downside a break of the 1.3800 level has the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart) at the 1.37805 level currently. A break below this level will likely target the next support at the 1.3738 level. This level was a floor yesterday in NY afternoon trading.

 

Patience.

Unemployment weaker this month. Revisions are better to neutralize the bad.

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:33 AM PDT

The NFP rose by 80K  vs 95K
Private Payroll 104k vs 125k Expected
Underemployment 16.2 vs 16.5% last
Unemployment 9% vs 9.1% expected

Revisions were better at:
NFP 158k vs 103k
Private 191K vs 137K

Ho hum report. The revisions saved the day, but the underlying pace of job expansion remains weak. 

Unemployment Moves Lower to 9.0% , Nonfarm & Private Payrolls Weaker with Strong Revisions

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  95K     Actual:  80K    Prior:  103K      Revision: 158K

Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 125K    Actual: 104K     Prior:  137K     Revised: 191K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 2K   Actual:  5K   Prior:  -13K     Revised: -3K

Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  9.1%     Actual:  9.0%     Prior:  9.1%      

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.2%      Prior:  0.2%         

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.8%      Actual: 1.8%      Prior:  1.9%      

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.3            Prior:  34.3

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.4.2011

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The FX markets were fairly tame overnight-as we await US employment data this morning at 8:30 AM.
Yesterday’s surprise interest rate cut by the ECB-along with the political turmoil in Greece, all account for the see saw moves we witnessed this week.
It seems that the Europeans have not been able to attract investment interest in the EFSF. They have been looking at China-who faces enormous internal political pressure not to invest in the Euro Zone.  Should the EFSF be looking at other sources for funding?  Time will tell where the best source of funding will originate from.

The G-20 leaders are meeting-as Greece is at risk of collapsing-as the debt ridden government seems to have no support either internally or in the eyes of other world leaders.  The G-20 meeting in Cannes, France is focused on getting the rescue plan that was agreed to last week enacted by Greece.

Commodities are lower-and equity markets were mixed-with US Futures lower at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Levels to eye for the EURUSD

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT

EURUSD

The EURUSD is above the 100 hour MA at hte 1.3780 and below the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level.  The 38.2% of the move down from the high last week comes in at the 1.3851.  Movements outside these ranges will give the bias for the market.  On the downside, a move below the 1.3780 level will next target the 1.3738 level. This level was a key floor in yesterdays NY afternoon trading. Below that the 1.3650 area followed by the low at 1.3607.

On the topside a move above the 1.3851 has the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level. A bove that the 1.3926 and the 1.3950 level as the next targets

Merkel says G20 failed to agree on IMF resources

Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:03 AM PDT

  • She adds that hardly any countries have said they will participate in the EFSF

The EURUSD has dipped on this headline pre US Employment report.

As if the US Unemployment report was not enough, the market will be focused on headlines out of the all important G20 meeting. These recent headlines are not supportive of the EURUSD and could lead to a more negative bias for the pair post the NFP report.
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