Forex Market Updates & Commentary

The USDJPY is above 100 day MA. Taking steps higher
Moody’s says unlikely to see a US rating change in 2012: Moody’s analyst
Michigan comes in at 64.1 vs 64.5 last
IMF says Germany drops Gold reserves for the 1st time since Dec 2010
EURUSD tests 38.2% of the last leg down at 1.34129
The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Durable Goods mixed with headline down, ex trans up. Initial claims remain below 400k
Jobless Claims & Personal Spending Weaker, Durable Goods Orders & Personal Income Improve
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.23.2011
The Morning Forex Report will come out after the US data today
Greek Samaras sends letter to EU and IMF leaders
ECB Constancio says German bond auction results do not raise concern
8:30AM US Economic Data
Fitch says France’s AAA status continues to be underpinned by a high value added and diverse economy
Fitch revises Turkey’s outlook to stable; Affirms BB+ rating

The USDJPY is above 100 day MA. Taking steps higher

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 07:17 AM PST

The USDJPY has moved above the 100 day MA at the 77.30 level. Moving above this level is positive for the pair. The 77.539 is the next target. Traders have been disappointed before in this pair but the move higher today has been more steady. It started by holding the 100 hour MA and has progressed step by step higher. Nevertheless, it is important to define risk. Risk comes in at 77.21 which is the 38.2% of hte move higher today (see chart below).

On the hourly chart today, the price held above the 100 hour MA, then had nice buying above the 200 hour MA. The 38.2% of the move down from the November high comes in at the 77.213 level. It broke through this level. The 50% comes in at the 77.41. This is another target to the upside if this progression is to continue.

Moody’s says unlikely to see a US rating change in 2012: Moody’s analyst

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 07:11 AM PST

Michigan comes in at 64.1 vs 64.5 last

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:56 AM PST

Economic expectations rose to 77.6 from 76.6
Economic Outlook came in at 55.4 vs 56.2.

IMF says Germany drops Gold reserves for the 1st time since Dec 2010

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PST

Gold has been moving down over the last 8 or so days of trading. The price has moved from the 1796 level to a low reached at 1666.23 yesteday. The price did rebound toward the 100 hour MA and 38.2% of the move down at the 1715 area (in the Far East session), but found sellers against the level (at 1710).

EURUSD tests 38.2% of the last leg down at 1.34129

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:43 AM PST

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:56 AM PST

Durable Goods mixed with headline down, ex trans up. Initial claims remain below 400k

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:33 AM PST

The Personal income and spending showed stronger income at 0.4% but weaker than expected spending at 0.1%. This increases the savings rate which rose to 3.5% from 3.3%.

Regarding the Durables report, Non defense orders ex aircraft fell the most since January 2011. This is an indication of business equipment demand cooling.

Jobless Claims & Personal Spending Weaker, Durable Goods Orders & Personal Income Improve

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PST

Jobless Claims: Survey: 390K Actual: 393K Prior: 388K Revised: 391K

Continuing Claims: Survey: 3621K Actual: 3691K Prior: 3608K Revised: 3623K

Durable Goods Orders: Survey: -1.2% Actual: -0.7% Prior: -0.8%

Durables Ex Transportation: Survey: 0.0% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 1.7% Revised: 0.6%

Personal Income: Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.1%

Personal Spending: Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.1% Prior: 0.6%

PCE Deflator: Survey: 2.7% Actual: 2.7% Prior: 2.9%

PCE Core(MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.1% Prior: 0.0%

PCE Core(YoY): Survey: 1.7% Actual: 1.7% Prior: 1.6%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.23.2011

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:30 AM PST

Good Morning:

The GBP dropped to it’s weakest level in 6 weeks-after minutes of the last Bank of England meeting showed that many members of the committee feel the need for an increase in the ongoing stimulus program.
In further news from the Euro Zone-the Euro fell to a 6 week low against the USD as data suggests that the sovereign debt crisis that is plaguing the region will directly effect growth within Europe.
Fitch rating have stated that the continued debt crisis now facing France-may have a negative impact on their AAA rating. With the latest increase in French government debt-their ability to absorb any fresh “shocks” will be difficult to control.

World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.

Oil, Gold, and silver are all lower also.

I want to wish everyone (who celebrates this holiday) a HAPPY THANKSGIVING.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The Morning Forex Report will come out after the US data today

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:28 AM PST

Some technical difficulties in compiling today are being fixed.

Intial Claims are expected at 390 vs 388K. They have been staying below the 400k level in recent weeks
Durable Goods are expected to show a 1.2% decline. Durables can be volatile due to transportation orders. Ex Transportation, the number is expected to be flat
Personal income and spending are both expected to show a 0.3% gain.

Greek Samaras sends letter to EU and IMF leaders

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:09 AM PST

This was a required condition for the receiving of the 6th tranche of aid.

He says that emphasis should be on fast economic recovery.

ECB Constancio says German bond auction results do not raise concern

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:42 AM PST

Germany today received insufficient bids for their auction of 10 year bunds. The pundits are terming the auction as the worst in Germany’s history. This raises investors fears for the Eurozone debt funding capabilities. After all, if the safe haven country (Germany) can not gather enough interest in their auction, what about the others like Spain and Italy?

Investors bid 3.889 billion for an offering of 6 billion euros at an average yield of 1.98%. The failed auction has led to a yield advance to back over 2% for the 10 year bund (the current yield is at 2.06%). On November 1st the low close in yield for the on-the-run 10 year bund came in at 1.768% (closing basis).

The auction results have helped presssure the EURUSD in London trading today. The pair has moved below the low over the last 5 days of non-trending range trading (break out at 1.3420).

The next target for the pair comes in at the 1.3360-77 area where lows from September and October are found. The low for September came in at 1.3144. The low for the year of 2011 came in at 1.2873 (back in January) .

S&P’s Beers says on the newswires that upward pressure on yields in Germany is quite telling. Might begin to change perceptions in the market. While the German finance ministery spokesperson says the bond auction is no indication of problems with refinancing.

Italy is scheduled to have 183 day bill auction on Friday. They are also looking to sell up to 750 million of 2023 bonds. The market will be watching the results of their auction for clues as to overall investment demand.

8:30AM US Economic Data

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:33 AM PST

Fitch says France’s AAA status continues to be underpinned by a high value added and diverse economy

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:30 AM PST

REcent adoption of fiscal measures enhances the credibility of the consolidation program from the government.
Additional measures are still likely to be necessary if 3% GDP target is to be met
THey add that French banks do not need capital injection

Fitch revises Turkey’s outlook to stable; Affirms BB+ rating

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:15 AM PST

The USDTRY has been trending to the upside as a move away from risk has led to the sharp move higher into the dollar and out of the more risky economies like Turkey.