Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Unconfirmed chatter of Italian sovereign downgrade.
• Feds Bullard says economy would have to falter from current pace for Fed to provide more accomodation
• Fed’s Evans expect policy rates to remain low beyond mid 2013 Fed date
• USDCHF has dipped below trend line support
• EURUSD sideways in early NY trade
• Feds Evans is more willing to push more accomodation through the system
• ECB reportedly in the market buying Italian and Spanish debt.
• ECB Mersch says inflation not an option to bring debt down
• Better Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing. PPI lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.15.2011
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 15th 2011
• Stocks down in pre- market trading
• The Trader’s Course with Greg Michalowski
• Eurozone Flash GDP increases 0.2% q/q
• German And Eurozone ZEW

Unconfirmed chatter of Italian sovereign downgrade. Posted: 15 Nov 2011 07:18 AM PST It is unconfirmed but the talk has led to a fall in the EURUSD on worries and fear.  Traders should always define risk as rumors can be refuted and the price can go the other way.  From a technical perspective the price is back below the 100 bar MA and 38.2% retracement level.

Feds Bullard says economy would have to falter from current pace for Fed to provide more accomodation Posted: 15 Nov 2011 07:12 AM PST Best route to monetary policy is balance sheet. Prefers to buy treasuries Meanwhile Feds Williams is also speaking. He says, Fiscal austerity means Fed should use full range of tools to help economy Biggest risk is Greek default triggers financial Panic.

Fed’s Evans expect policy rates to remain low beyond mid 2013 Fed date Posted: 15 Nov 2011 06:40 AM PST Once again, Evans is a dove on the FOMC, but his comments are attracting attention from the “risk on” crowd. The Dow is pretty much unchanged. The Nasdaq is also unchanged. Oil is up 0.83. All have reversed the declines from pre market and pre data 8:30 AM levels.  The EURUSD has moved above the 100 bar MA and the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.3560 level.  Looking for momentum to develop now with 1.3575 and 1.3590 the next upside target levels.

USDCHF has dipped below trend line support Posted: 15 Nov 2011 06:36 AM PST The USDCHF has moved below trendline support on the hourly chart at the 0.9148 level and moving toward the next support at the 0.91314 level (see 38.2% retracement and trendline on the 5 minute chart below). A move below this level opens up the downside for further probing. The 0.91178 is the next target on a break.

EURUSD sideways in early NY trade Posted: 15 Nov 2011 06:01 AM PST The EURUSD has been more sideways in early NY trade. The 8:30 economic data was better than expected with lower inflation and higher retail sales and Empire Mfg.  The move off the lows pushed the price twice to the 38.2% of the days trading range at the 1.3560 level. The price is back down trading near the 1.3538 level. The low today is the next target at the 1.35109 level.  Below that level, the low from last week at 1.3483 is the next target.  A move above the 1.3560 level and the 100 bar MA at the 1.3564 level, opens the potential to 1.3575 and then 1.3590 where the 61.8% of the days range and the 200 bar MA (green line) is found.

Feds Evans is more willing to push more accomodation through the system Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:49 AM PST Evan’s dissented toward more easing at the last Fed Meeting Other comments from Evan: Inflation relatively tame Unemployment will decline slowly Need to sharpen guidance and have accomodative policy

ECB reportedly in the market buying Italian and Spanish debt. Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:42 AM PST Unconfirmed The EURUSD has moved up in sympathy to the lower bond yields.

ECB Mersch says inflation not an option to bring debt down Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:41 AM PST Monetary policy in the Euro zone must remain on delivering price stability

Better Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing. PPI lower Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PST Lower inflation. Higher Growth. Empire MFG 0.6 vs -2 Expectations PPI -0.3% vs -0.1 expectations Ex F & E 0.0 vs +0.1% expectations Retail Sales rose by 0.5% vs 0.3% expectations Less Auto _0.6% vs +0.3% Canada Manufacturing Sales came in better than expectations at +2.6% vs +1.3% expectations The EURUSD is modestly higher after the better than expected data.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.15.2011 Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:18 AM PST Good Morning: The credit crisis in the Euro Zone remains under stress, as the spreads between German and Italian bonds was 600 bp, and the spreads between German and French bonds reached 173bp.  Is France the next EU country to run into problems?  We will wait and see. Greek’s new Prime Minister has commented that “keeping the euro is the only way forward for the country”. The GBP traded stronger against the euro as investors seek GBP denominated assets.  With Italian, Spanish, and French bond yields rising-thus causing their borrowing costs to jump, the euro also lost ground to the greenback and JPY. The markets are lacking confidence in the EuroZone’s ability to reform the economies of Greece and Italy-With the Spanish, French, Irish and Portuguese economies also in chaos-their is an enormous amount of criticism if the EuroZone can or cannot handle this problem. World equity markets are lower-and US Futures are lower by over 100 pints. Oil,silver, gold are all lower at this time. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 15th 2011 Posted: 15 Nov 2011 05:13 AM PST

Stocks down in pre- market trading Posted: 15 Nov 2011 04:43 AM PST Dow Futures are down -113 S&P Futures are down -15 NasdaqFutures are down -25 Crude oil is down -$0.40 Brent Oil is up $0.05 Occupied Wall Street protesters have been evicted from the park for health reasons Spain issued 3.16 billion of 12 and 18 month bills. This was less than the maximum target of 3.5 billion. Spain 12 month yield 5.022% vs 3.608% at last months sale Spain is scheduled to auction 10 year bonds no Thursday. Italian bond yields rose to 7.07% ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to lowest level since October 2008 Risk off. EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD. The USDCHF is higher.  EURCHF also moved higher Data released today: 8:30 AM ET: US PPI MoM Expected -0.1% expectations vs +0.8% last month Ex Food and Energy: 0.1% expectation vs 0.2% last month PPI YoY: 6.3% expectation vs 6.9% last PPI YoY Ex Food and Energy: 2.8% Expectation vs 2.5% last month Retail Sales: 0.3% expectation vs1.1% last month Ex Auto: 0.2% expectation vs. 0.6% last month Empire Mfg Index: -2% expectations vs -8.48% last month 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories: 0.1% expectations vs 0.5% last month

The Trader’s Course with Greg Michalowski Posted: 15 Nov 2011 04:17 AM PST Greg Michalowski will be conducting his regularly scheduled “Trader Course” on Tuesday at 4 PM ET. The topics today: Tuesday: Trending Markets. Recognizing them. Trading them: Part 2. TUESDAY REGISTRATION LINK: CLICK TO REGISTER

Eurozone Flash GDP increases 0.2% q/q Posted: 15 Nov 2011 02:06 AM PST This number met expectations. Eur/Usd continues to trade around 1.3550.

German And Eurozone ZEW Posted: 15 Nov 2011 02:05 AM PST  German Zew Economic Sentiment came in at -55.2, weaker than the -51.8 expected. Eurozone Economic Sentiment came in at -59.1, weaker than the -52.7 expected. An already depressed Eur/Usd holds at 1.3545-55 on release of negative Zew data.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610