Forex Market Updates & Commentary

GBPUSD soaring higher. Scrambling to buy
Greek PM Papademos says new government will do best to overcome its problems
Troika to meet with Greece next week and 6th tranche to be released soon
IMF says policy maker should move with greater sense of urgency…
Michigan Consumer Confidence comes out better at 64.2. Better than expected
USDJPY joins in the dollar selling today
EURUSD moves above the resistance and continues march higher
Papedemos names new cabinet and other news
EURUSD tests 100 hour MA. 1st test should find some profit takers
GBPUSD pushes against topside resistance in early NY trade.
EURUSD wanders higher in narrow trade. 1.36704 is midpoint of weeks range.
NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 11 2011
EU’s Barroso: EU solution is not to divide
UK PPI weaker than expected
Hong Kong Q3 GDP rises 0.1% from previous quarter

GBPUSD soaring higher. Scrambling to buy

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 07:34 AM PST

The GBPUSD has soared higher after taking out resistance levels at the 1.5987-97 and then the 100 day MA at the 1.6016 level. The pair has moved up toward what was a ceiling/floor level over the last week or so. That area comes in at the 1.6062-1.6068. The price has now moved above (it is fast) that level and has peaked at 1.6089. The 38.2% of the last leg higher comes in 1.6048 (see the chart below). These areas are now support for the pair (at 1.6062 and 1.6048).

In a trending market the burden of proof is on the counter trend traders. If they cannot reach technical hurdles during the corrections,the bias remains with the trend.

Trends are fast and directional. Traders are caught it seems and and the buyers are not letting up.

Greek PM Papademos says new government will do best to overcome its problems

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 07:15 AM PST

Troika to meet with Greece next week and 6th tranche to be released soon

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 07:15 AM PST

IMF says policy maker should move with greater sense of urgency…

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 07:01 AM PST

…in agreeing on steps to reduce imbalances and restore growth

Major advanced economies urgently need to set out credible medium term fiscal plans
Emerging surplus countries need to allow for faster exchange rate appreciation
See elevated risk of falling back into recession in major advanced countries
Considerable uncertainty about how to achieve fiscal sustainability. Cites specifically US, Japan and some European economies.

Michigan Consumer Confidence comes out better at 64.2. Better than expected

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:55 AM PST

Beats expectations of 61.5. and is the highest results since June when it reached 71.5. The year high was 77.5 in February and the low was 55.7 in August.

Economic conditions rose to 76.6 from 75.1. This is the highest since June when was at 82.0
Economic outlook rose to 56.2 from 51.8. This is the highest also since June when it reached 64.8.

USDJPY joins in the dollar selling today

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:54 AM PST

The USDJPY has moved sharply lower and approaches the next support in the pair at the 77.076 level. This is the 61.8% retracement of the intervention move.

EURUSD moves above the resistance and continues march higher

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:41 AM PST

The EURUSD has pushed above the 1.3680-83 resistance area. The low on Monday’s trade came in at the 1.36805 level. The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.3683. This is now support. Other support comes in at the midpoint of the weeks range that comes in at 1.36704 (high from earlier today hit 1.3667).

On the topside, the next target is the 1.37146 level where the 61.8% of the weeks range and the 200 hour MA (at 1.3717) is found.

Papedemos names new cabinet and other news

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:35 AM PST

The finance minister will remain Evangelos Venizelos. Hope springs eternal.
Meanwhile EU Van Rompuy says will do utmost to keep Eurozone together. He also plans to hold Eurozone summits immediately after European council meetings. He hopes that Italy votes the new budget (tomorrow the Chamber is to vote) and urges that the implementation is crucial.
Italy’s President Napolitano repeats the need for government action. Government needs broad support. He agrees with German president that austerity commitments need to be quickly enacted.

EURUSD tests 100 hour MA. 1st test should find some profit takers

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:15 AM PST

The EURUSD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.3683 level and has found some quick profit takers against the level. The question is will the price rotate back lower and take out support levels. The key support below now comes in at the 1.3652-56 area. This is a level off the daily chart (see below). A closer clue comes at the London morning high at the 1.3667 level.

GBPUSD pushes against topside resistance in early NY trade.

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 06:07 AM PST

The GBPUSD is looking to test the upside resistance area developed over the last 16 or so hours of trading. That resistance comes in at the 1.5939 to 1.59465 levels. A move above that, will next target the 1.5967 level where the 38.2% of the weeks range is located. Above that the 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.5987 area.

On the downside, 1.5930 is the close from yesterday. The midpoint of the days range comes in at the 1.5920 level. Below that the 1.5900 level is bottom side trendline support (see chart above) and low prices over the last few days which come in at the 1.5889 level.

EURUSD wanders higher in narrow trade. 1.36704 is midpoint of weeks range.

Posted: 11 Nov 2011 05:52 AM PST

The Italian bond yields have continued the move down today – falling to a low of 6.53%. This has helped keep the EURUSD supported and also appeased the stock market players. Pre US stock market open, the Dow Futures are up 95 points. The Nasdaq is up around 20 points. Overseas markets are also up with the German Dax up 2% or 121 points.

All of which is good news for the EURUSD and we are seeing a willingness to move and stay above the 38.2% of the sharp move lower on Wednesday at the 1.36261 level. A move below this level will be eyed by bears today. On the topside, the price is approaching the next targets for the pair. They come in at the midpoint of the move down from the November 9th high to the low reached on November 10th. That level comes in at the 1.36704 level. Above that is he 100 bar MA (blue line) at the 1.3680 level currently.

Today is a semi holiday in the US (Veteran’s Day). The stock market is open but the will to trade may be limited. There is data at 9:55 AM in the form of the Michigan Consumer Confidence. The expectation is 61.5 versus 60.9 last.