Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart
G20 official: Another meeting hijacked by Greece
Forex Platform Big Picture Trading with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM TODAY
Merkel says needs more clarity about Greek referendum
Italy government officials working on a draft decree for budget
GBPUSD has a lot going on at the 1.6039 area
Merkel and Sarkozy to meet with Papandreou at 12:30 PM
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.2.2011
Fed Central Tendencies released later today by Fed/Bernanke
ADP Employment Adds 110K Jobs in October
Bank of Spain says mid and long term funding markets practically closed
NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 2nd 2011
US Challenger Job Cuts Stronger at 12.6% vs. Prior of 211.5%
S&P says credit rating could being effected by EFSF expansion
German banking association says expects wide approval by private creditors for Greek debt haircut.

EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 07:38 AM PDT

The EURUSD has moved below trendline support and tests the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The trendline came in at 1.3784 and staying below this level is needed to keep the bears/sellers satisfied. A move back above – especially after holding the 100 bar MA – will likely disappoint and lead to further upside momentum for the time being. Meanwhile a break of the 1.3773 level (100 bar MA) opens the door for a test fo the 1.3749-56 area.

G20 official: Another meeting hijacked by Greece

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 07:08 AM PDT

The comment may be indicative of the frustration from officials

In another news item, Der Spiegel has an article that states that the Greek exit from the Euro Zone is just a matter of time.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,795426,00.html

Forex Platform Big Picture Trading with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM TODAY

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:50 AM PDT

Forex Big Picture Trading method with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM this Wednesday – Register now

Merkel says needs more clarity about Greek referendum

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PDT

She will meet with Papendreou at 20 GMT today
No comment on talk earlier with Greek PM

Italy government officials working on a draft decree for budget

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT

Draft decree may include public realty sales.

To solve shortfalls with asset sales assumes that there is a buyer. The EURUSD although off the high is still more near the pairs high than low. And lets face it, there is a reluctance to buy now. Governments are saving. People are saving. If selling assets are the answer, I am not sure it will be the savior that most expect.

GBPUSD has a lot going on at the 1.6039 area

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:14 AM PDT

The upward sloping trendline, the ceiling from October 25th, 26th and 27th, and the 100 hour MA come in at the 1.6039 area. This level was tested earlier today. So it is the second test today. Below is the 200 hour MA at the 1.6000 level.

The 100 day MA is also in play today at the 1.60237 level. The price is back below the level after the quick move higher. Staying below the 1.60237 level and a subsequent fall below the 1.6000 level, should put the bears back in control. However, with the Fed and Bernanke due later today, there may be two way action that keeps the bulls and bears active on rallies and dips.

Merkel and Sarkozy to meet with Papandreou at 12:30 PM

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:05 AM PDT

The meeting comes after the surprise referendum announcement yesterday by the PM on the whether Greeks want to endure further financial sacrifices. Needless to say, the two leaders, who just last week banged out a plan for the EU to insure against a collapse of the banking system and contagion into Italy and Spain, were likely shocked by the announcement. I can imagine they would like a good explanation from the Greek leader. On Thursday and Friday the G20 will be meeting. What Greece is going to do will certainly be a point of interest for all.

Despite the uncertainty, the EURUSD has traded more positively today. Perhaps the market is expecting QE3 from the Fed which should lead to a higher stocks and move into risk. The EURUSD is considered a “risk on” currency.

The next level of resistance comes in at the 1.3822 level which is the 38.2% of the weeks trading range. There should be some profit taking selling against the level on the first test.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.2.2011

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:36 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Another sea saw session for the EUR/USD, as the pair was very active all night. First, rumors that the Chinese are interested in investing in the EFSF moved the pair, and than news hit the wires that the EFSF bond issue will be delayed. The news that really sent the markets into a tailspin is that Greece will call for a national referendum (a national vote) on the bailout deal. Markets fear that any delay in the Greece bailout deal will push Greece closer to bankruptcy.
Today, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, French President Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Merkel will be the main focus today-as they meet to discuss future moves.

One of the main reason why the EUR/USD pair has not dropped further despite all the problems in the Euro Zone, is that the US Fed is focused on their QE programs-and the continued dilution of the greenback has kept the USD rally contained.

Dow futures are higher this morning-as European and Asian equity markets are mixed.
Gold, silver and Oil are all higher this morning.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Fed Central Tendencies released later today by Fed/Bernanke

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT

The Feds Central Tendencies will be released today (and discussed by Fed Chairman Bernanke).

In the last projections made in June the Fed projected

GDP for 2011 to be 2.7 to 2.9%. In the 3rd quarter the YoY GDP came in at 2.5%.
The Unemployment rate projection wa 8.6-8.9%. The current rate is 9.1%.
Finally Core PCE was estimated to be 1.5-1.8%. The actual Core PCE is currently at 1.6%. So that is in line with the projections by the Fed.

The Feds expectations for 2012 as reported in June were more robust than what may be expected now. The Fed has GDP growth of 3.3-3.7%, Unemployment at 7.8% to 8.2% and Core PCE at 1.4-2.0%. The growth and employment projections are likely to be revised lower to more reflect the slower global growth outlook.

ADP Employment Adds 110K Jobs in October

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:15 AM PDT

Employment Change: Survey: 100K Actual: 110K Prior: 91K

October vs. September 2011
Manufacturing: 11,663 vs 11,668
Level Change: -5 vs -7
%Manf. Jobs: 10.7% vs 10.7%
Goods-Producing: 17,835 vs 17,834
Level Change: 1 vs 6
%Goods Produced: 16.4 vs 16.4
Service-Producing: 91,101 vs 91,011
Level Change: 90 vs 83
%Service Produced: 83.6 vs 83.6

Bank of Spain says mid and long term funding markets practically closed

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:01 AM PDT

As the year end approaches there tends to be extra tightness of credit being extended in the interbank market. The only way to break the logjam will be for the central banks to provide liquidity.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 2nd 2011

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:49 AM PDT

US Challenger Job Cuts Stronger at 12.6% vs. Prior of 211.5%

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:33 AM PDT

Challenger: Job cuts fell 63% in October to 42,759.

S&P says credit rating could being effected by EFSF expansion

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:22 AM PDT

This is congruent with other statements released earlier

German banking association says expects wide approval by private creditors for Greek debt haircut.

Posted: 02 Nov 2011 03:19 AM PDT