Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EU’s Juncker on the Wires
- EU Juncker is reassured that Greek situation has become clearer
- EURUSD/Dollar reverses course. Markets skittish
- GBPUSD test 100 day MA at the 1.60185 level
- The Forex Week Ahead. REBROADCAST and PDF Report now available
- EURUSD weaker in early NY trade
- Societe Generale report saying SNB may raise peg of EURCHF to 1.3000. Low inflation cited.
- The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Novemver 7th 2011
- French PMI announces a temporary 5% increase in company tax, rise in lower VAT rate to 7% (from 5.5%) on certain goods.
- IMF Lagarde may revise global growth outlook
- Euro rallies on rumors of Italian PM Berlusconi stepping down.
- A key Italian law maker says Berlusconi denies talks of his resignation – EUR lower.
- German ind. production (Sep) -2.7% vs. -0.9% prior.
- Berlusconi says rumors of resignation are unfounded
- Eurozone retail sales (Sept) -0.7% vs -0.1% expected.
| Posted: 07 Nov 2011 07:07 AM PST Says:
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| EU Juncker is reassured that Greek situation has become clearer Posted: 07 Nov 2011 06:30 AM PST
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| EURUSD/Dollar reverses course. Markets skittish Posted: 07 Nov 2011 06:15 AM PST OK. I get it. The EURUSD found started the NY session with more sellers- breaking below 100 hour MA and other support levels. The price rotated back higher and when the price moved back above the 100 hour MA at the 1.3749 level it was off to the races to the upside. Now the price is back above the close from Friday at the 1.3770 level and looking more constructive. Beware, however, because the market action is skittish and looks to be dominated by short term momentum traders. Risk is increased on the non commitment of the traders. When momentum dominates like it has today, traders need to adjust expectations and must make sure to define risk. The market can run as traders enter and exit quickly and liquidity conditions are not as robust. Be prepared for such action. |
| GBPUSD test 100 day MA at the 1.60185 level Posted: 07 Nov 2011 06:06 AM PST
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| The Forex Week Ahead. REBROADCAST and PDF Report now available Posted: 07 Nov 2011 05:59 AM PST
To view the REBROADCAST of the Forex Week Ahead, click on the following link: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/988589585 |
| EURUSD weaker in early NY trade Posted: 07 Nov 2011 04:40 AM PST
The EURUSD has moved lower in early NY trade. The pair has been lower for most of the London morning but rebounded on the back of Italian PM Berlusconi’s imminent resignation (I guess that is good news for Italy). The price surge took the price above the close from Friday at the 1.3770 level. That move was shortlived, however, and the price has rotatated back to the downside. The pair is now below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at 1.3749. On the shorter term 5 minute chart below, it is below the 200 (green line) and 100 bar MAs (blue line) on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3760 and 1.3739 levels respectively, and below the 38.2% (at 1.37458) and the 50% (at 1.37333) of the move up from the lows. This all puts more of a negative bias to the pair in NY trade.
A move below the 1.37208 level will be the next downside hurdle for the pair in trade today (61.8% of the move up from the low – see 5 minute chart). A move below this level will next target the channel trendline support at the 1.3700 level on the hourly chart. On the topside, staying below the 1.3749 level (100 hour MA – blue line in the chart above) will be eyed as resistance. A move above this level will be needed to switch the intraday bias back to the upside. Headline news will continue to dominate with Greece and Italy in the spotlight still. |
| Societe Generale report saying SNB may raise peg of EURCHF to 1.3000. Low inflation cited. Posted: 07 Nov 2011 04:22 AM PST The report is in reaction to the weaker CPI. Today the CHF CPI inflation in weaker at -0.1% vs expectations of +0.2%. The EURCHF has been range bound since the September intervention which sent the pair sharply higher. Today the price moved above the 200 day MA at the 1.2282 level and staying above this level is bullish. Another leak in the exchange rate of 700-800 pips is not as easy to do as it is is to say. So although the report may suggest such a possibility, I would be cautious and continue to follow the techincals for clues.
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| The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Novemver 7th 2011 Posted: 07 Nov 2011 04:02 AM PST |
| Posted: 07 Nov 2011 03:41 AM PST |
| IMF Lagarde may revise global growth outlook Posted: 07 Nov 2011 03:19 AM PST
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| Euro rallies on rumors of Italian PM Berlusconi stepping down. Posted: 07 Nov 2011 03:05 AM PST The EUR/USD over 50 pips higher following the release; tested the 50.0% on the last hourly move.
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| A key Italian law maker says Berlusconi denies talks of his resignation – EUR lower. Posted: 07 Nov 2011 03:02 AM PST |
| German ind. production (Sep) -2.7% vs. -0.9% prior. Posted: 07 Nov 2011 03:00 AM PST |
| Berlusconi says rumors of resignation are unfounded Posted: 07 Nov 2011 02:59 AM PST
EURUSD moves lower on the headline news. Heads to the 100 bar MA on the 5 min and 38.2% retracement of the move higher over the last hour or so of trading at the 1.37458 level. A break through the level will be needed to get further bears involved. |
| Eurozone retail sales (Sept) -0.7% vs -0.1% expected. Posted: 07 Nov 2011 02:14 AM PST |
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