Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Canada Ivey PMI index worse than expected
- EURUSD below 1.4304 a worry. Support at 1.4264-78 remains.
- USDJPY moves above key resistance
- August 7 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD bounces off 200 hour MA
- USDJPY tests key resistance . Trendline and 100 day MA
- Markets are volatile after the news. USDJPY rises. EURUSD and GBPUSD has risen then fallen off.
- Non Farm Payroll better than expected. Unemployment rate falls to 9.4%
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.7.2009
- US Employment numbers to be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for an improvement
- Canada Unemployment comes out weaker than expected
- German industrial production weaker than expected
- UK PPI
- Italian Q2 GDP
- German trade balance & current account
| Canada Ivey PMI index worse than expected Posted: 07 Aug 2009 07:04 AM PDT Comes in at 51.8 vs 58.2 last month. This should lead to gainst in the USDCAD. |
| EURUSD below 1.4304 a worry. Support at 1.4264-78 remains. Posted: 07 Aug 2009 06:43 AM PDT
The move below the 1.4304 level is a worry. The corrective move higher post the number took the pair through the midpoint of the day but held the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.4357 level. The 38.2% retracement at 1.4278 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.4264 remain as key support
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| USDJPY moves above key resistance Posted: 07 Aug 2009 06:39 AM PDT
The 96.64 level is the 100 day MA. The channel trendline comes in today at the 96.45 level. The move above is bullish for the pair. |
| August 7 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 07 Aug 2009 06:35 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Part 2 of the Special report on the US Employment data released today, August 7, 2009. How did it all play out. Watch the video and find out how it will affect your trading. |
| EURUSD bounces off 200 hour MA Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:54 AM PDT
200 hour MA comes in at 1.4264. The market bottomed at the 1.4272. The 38.2% retracement of the last move up came in at 1.4277 as well providing a level for buyers to lean against. Watch this area. A break below targets 1.4226. The 1.4304 level is still a key level. This was the old high from the end of July. The midpoint of the move down comes in at 1.4342. The market tends to hold the midpoint on a spike type move like we saw today.
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| USDJPY tests key resistance . Trendline and 100 day MA Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:47 AM PDT
The 100 day MA and the channel trendline resistance is being tested in the USDJPY at the 96.64 level. I would expect to see some sellers against the level. A break should solicit some stop buying. Be aware |
| Markets are volatile after the news. USDJPY rises. EURUSD and GBPUSD has risen then fallen off. Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:44 AM PDT The better than expected improvement in the employment picture has cause a volatile move in the currencies. The dollar is rising against the Yen and the Yen crosses as per expectations. The EURUSD and GBPUSD originally rose, and have since moved to the downside as the dollar gets bid across the board. This is different thatn what has been customary. The markets are still trying to find their way. |
| Non Farm Payroll better than expected. Unemployment rate falls to 9.4% Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:32 AM PDT
The NFP -247K revision better to -443 K from -467K Unemployment rate 9.4% vs exp of 9.6% Manufacturing jobs fell -52K. Seasonals helped the manufacturing sector.
Temporary Workers showed a decline of -10K
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.7.2009 Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:22 AM PDT
With all eyes on this morning’s US employment report. Worldwide equity markets fell, along with metals and oil as speculation that this morning’s report will show that US unemployment rose to a 26 year high. Oil:$71.36 Gold:$964.20 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| US Employment numbers to be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for an improvement Posted: 07 Aug 2009 05:12 AM PDT
The US Non Farm Payroll will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a decline of -325K. However, the whisper estimates have been coming down over the last 24 or so hours, with a low estimate of -150k heard. Last month, the number showed a decline of -467K. This was a surprise to the market as it reversed the -322K May decline.
Looking at the different sectors last month, the Manufacturing continued to weigh on the market with -136 jobs lost. This may have been influenced by the auto dealers and perhaps seasonals that did not expect auto shut downs. This may reverse this month. Nevertheless, the market expectation is for a decline of 100K this month. Professsional and Business Services includes Temporary Services, lost -118K jobs. Keep an eye on Temporary Workers as a rise in this category may suggest a bottoming as employers add temp workers first, then full time employees typically at turning points up or down. Health Care and Other Services were the only sectors that added jobs last month. Health Care and Government have been the only sectors to add jobs over the last 18 months.
For this month, we will be also watching Government change. Last month -52K jobs were lost. The trend in jobs from governement has been falling as state and local governments reduce staffs due to shortfalls in budgets and tax receipts. This will likely continue to be a drag going forward.
The Unemployment rate is expected to rise a smidge to 9.6% from 9.5%. The 9.6% rate is the highest since June 1983.
Overall, the current job recession has shed 6.4M jobs. Jobs have been lost for 18 consecutive months. The average month job loss is -358K. A number like -325K would be below the trend but still indicative of a weak job market. People need to work to spend and not be worried about the job situation to spend more as well. A number of economists are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel which will reverse the momentum, but due to the large fall in wealth, the turnaround should be contained.
Of the 6.46M jobs lost, manufacturing has led the decline with 1.923 Million workers losing their jobs. The lower dollar does help make exports more competitive abroad. PMI indices have bottomed.
Service Producing jobs have been equally effected by the recession. Last month, Service Sector jobs lost -244K jobs. Goods producing Jobs lost -233K. At the trough, Service Sector jobs lost -399K jobs in December 2008. while Goods Producing jobs lost the most jobs in January (-405K). There have been no one spared.
Overall, it seems the market is looking for a move back toward an improving jobs picture. The number is a wild card in no one really knows. So risks are indeed increased. If the number is better however, I would expect the stocks to do better, the commodity currencies to do better and the risk currency pairs to outperform. The USDJPY should improve due to higher Yen crosses. The EURUSD and GBPUSD may be dragged higher as well. The opposite would be the case in the event of a worse than expected number. Always the suggestion is to sit tight, let the market get rid of some of the post number volatility, then look at the key chart level and indicators like moving averages and retracements. |
| Canada Unemployment comes out weaker than expected Posted: 07 Aug 2009 04:34 AM PDT
The Net Change in Employment for Canada came in at -44.5K. However, the Unemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 8.8%. This was due to the labor market shrinking more than anything. The USDCAD moved higher on the weak data and has extended the range above the 200 hour moving average. The 100 hour MA is starting to move up.
From a longer terrm perspective the longer term target could extend to the 1.1046 level. This is the 38.2% retracement support level for the pair. This is on a longer term perspective and is reliant on the price remaining above the key shorter term moving averages like the 100 and 200 hour MAs.
Intraday today, the price should not dip back below the high for yesterday at the 1.0796 level. I would expect buyers against stops below this level. Much will be dependent on the US Employment report due at 8:30. |
| German industrial production weaker than expected Posted: 07 Aug 2009 03:02 AM PDT German industrial production came in at -0.1%, weaker than the 0.6% expected. |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2009 01:35 AM PDT UK PPI input m/m came in at -1.4%, worse than the -0.8%. Y/y came in at -12.2%, worse than the -10.9% expected. UK PPI output m/m came in at 0.3%, better than the 0.0% expected. Y/y came in at -1.3%, better than the 1.7% expected. Cable trading at or near lows right through announcement of the PPI figures and currently trading at 1.6730. |
| Posted: 07 Aug 2009 01:00 AM PDT Italian Q2 Preliminary GDP q/q came in at -0.5%, better than the -0.7% expected. No major market reaction to news. |
| German trade balance & current account Posted: 06 Aug 2009 11:03 PM PDT German trade balance came in at 12.2B, stronger than the 10.6B expected. Current account came in at 133.3B, stronger than the 8.0B expected. eur?Usd has rebounded off of numbers , up about 10 pips to 1.4354 currently. |
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