Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY tests intraday resistance at 94.18 level
- EURUSD reverses its trend as stocks rebound
- August 19th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Report
- USDJPY tested 200 day moving average, 100 hour MA and sold off
- EURUSD hanging around the key trendline level
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.19.2009
- GBPUSD sold off on back of BOE minutes. Downside reastablished.
- Canada CPI comes out a little weaker than expected. USDCAD tests upside resistance.
- US Mortgage Applications rise in the current week
- BOE minutes sends sterling to new lows
- Eurozone current account
- Sterling nears 100 hour M/A and gets a lift
- German PPI
- Eur/Jpy approaching recent hourly bottoms
- 8-19 Economic Calendar
| USDJPY tests intraday resistance at 94.18 level Posted: 19 Aug 2009 07:11 AM PDT
The USDJPY is up testing the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 94.18 level. A bette stock market is helping the risk currency pairs rebound today. This is helping the USDJPY. A move above willl look toward the 94.43 level where the 200 bar MA is located (green line in chart above). A move above 95.53-57 would solicit even more buying interest. Intraday support comes in at 93.98. |
| EURUSD reverses its trend as stocks rebound Posted: 19 Aug 2009 06:58 AM PDT
The EURUSD has moved back above the key trendline resistance at the 1.4129 level as stocks do not fall as expected. Gold has reversed. Oil is unchanged. The bias for the pair is positive now. In addition to the 1.4129 level, will be watching for support against the 1.41 21 level where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located. Resistance above at 1.4167 where the 100 hour MA is currently located
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| August 19th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Report Posted: 19 Aug 2009 06:36 AM PDT |
| USDJPY tested 200 day moving average, 100 hour MA and sold off Posted: 19 Aug 2009 06:08 AM PDT
The 200 day MA (green line) has been a level we have been watching over the last few days. The price moved above the key longer term level yesterday but moved back below before the close. Today, the price moved up to test the level. The high reache 94.95. The 200 day moving average came in at 94.98. The failure to get above gave sellers the green light to go short/ cover longs.
On the hourly chart, the price also has been using the 100 hour MA as resistance to lean against. As the price moved higher, it too approached the 100 hour MA (see chart above). This too provided sellers with a level to sell against and they did.
Finally, the 5 minute chart also gave selling clues. While the price moved toward the 100 hour and 200 day MA, it was moving above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. However, this reversed and it too came in line with the bearishness from the daily and hourly chart as it first broke through the low support level from yesterday at the 94.53 to 94.57 area, then used the 100 bar MA as resistance levels. We will continue to use the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart as resisitance. Much will depend on the stock market as the USDJPY is influence by the declines in the risk pairs including GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY pairs. The EURJPY fell below the 100 day MA at the 133.19 this morning.
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| EURUSD hanging around the key trendline level Posted: 19 Aug 2009 05:41 AM PDT
The EURUSD extended yesterdays gains to a high a high of 1.4171 in Tokyo trading. At the high the price got within 10 pips of the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below). Sellers sold against the key moving average and moved down to test the trendline from the Head and Shoulder formation on the 4 hour chart above (at 1.4125 area) . This line initially held as per the chart below.
Later, however, the support line was broken as falling stocks along with weakness in the GBPUSD pushed the EURUSD down. The correction off the lows at 1.4084 took the pair back to our key trendline where sellers entered again (see chart at 1.4129). Needless to say the 1.4129 trendline remains as a key upside resistance level for me today. As long as the price remains below this line, the bias is to the downside. The low from yesterday was 1.4069. The low for the week came in at 1.4045. These levels will be support. A break below that has the 1.400 level as next support. Longer term, the 1.3851 level is a target if the price can remain below our key resistance levels and starts a march to the downside. This line represents the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April low to the August high. There also are a lot of low levels around that area from the May, June, July period which should stall the decline. The daily chart below outlines these levels.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.19.2009 Posted: 19 Aug 2009 05:37 AM PDT
China’s benchmark equity index dropped 4.3 % overnight and the JPY was the winner, as investors seek refuge from concerns that the global recovery is stalling. World equity markets dropped. Investors fear that the worldwide government stimulus packages that were put in place to ease the global economic slowdown will be difficult to reverse. Speculation is that the dollar will weaken in the long run as the US continues to pour enormous amount of money into the system to stem a return of the global meltdown. Oil:$68.55 Gold;$935.60 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
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| GBPUSD sold off on back of BOE minutes. Downside reastablished. Posted: 19 Aug 2009 05:15 AM PDT The minutes from the BOE minutes showed a 6-3 vote for 50 billion of additional quantitative easing. The dissenting votes were for a larger increase of 75 billion. This led to a fall in the GBPUSD as more purchases indicates a weaker picture for the economy. It also can indicate the potential for larger deficits. All of which has the potential to hurt the demand for the currency.
The price fell through both the 200 and 100 hour moving average on the move down, after the move higher yesterday and earlier today that saw the price enter briefly our upside resistance target between 1.6589 and 1.6605 (see posts from yesterday. Here is one). The high today reached the 1.6592 before heading lower. The 100 hour MA was broken at the 1.6479 level and will be resistance today.
Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, the 100 bar MA will be watched. The current level comes in at 1.6453 and this moving average will be watch as resistance. I would expect sellers to enter the market against this moving average today (see 5 minute chart above). On the downside, the low today was been 1.6380. This is initial support. The low yesterday at 1.6324 and the 1.6317 level is also one of those key levels I have been watching as support. A break of 1.6317 should lead to some momentum selling in the pair.
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| Canada CPI comes out a little weaker than expected. USDCAD tests upside resistance. Posted: 19 Aug 2009 04:39 AM PDT The Canada CPI for the month of July came out a touch weaker than expected as the month on month index fell by -0.3% versus -0.2% and the YoY measure showed a decline of -0.9%. The Core measures were also lower by a smidge. The MoM core measure came in at 0.0% vs expectation of +0.1% and the YoY came in at +1.8% vs +1.9% expectation. The Bank of Canada targets 2.0% inflation but the decline in inflation is largely due to the decline in energy prices. Nevertheless, there is spare capacity in the economy which should also keep inflation subdued and the BOC on hold as far as interest rates for the foreseeable future.
From a technical perspective the USDCAD first dipped but has since risen post the report. The pair is up on the day. The index transitioned from a non trending period to trending. The pair tried breaking to the downside, but the momentum failed and the market reversed quickly. The ensuing move to the upside has approached the recent highs and the 200 bar moving average resistance on the 4 hour chart (see green line in the chart below). The price over the last three days now have gone above this moving average. However, each time the price has not been able to sustain any momentum. That MA comes in at the 1.1079 level today (see chart below). A move above this give a bullish bias. Confirmation of the directional move comes when the price takes out the highs from yesterday at the 1.1105 level and the high from Monday at the 1.1123. Keep on eye on these key levels today.
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| US Mortgage Applications rise in the current week Posted: 19 Aug 2009 04:29 AM PDT On the back of lower rates and lower prices (and tax benefit for new home buyers), the Mortgage Applications rose by 5.6% in the current week. Within that number the Purchase index rose 3.9% while the Refinance index rose by 6.9%. The average rate on a 30 year mortgage fell to 5.15% from 5.37% last week. One year ago the average rate was 6.47%. |
| BOE minutes sends sterling to new lows Posted: 19 Aug 2009 01:39 AM PDT MPC voted 6-3 to raise APF by 50B. King.Beasley and Miles had sought a 75B pound increase. Growth in underlying monetary levels has continued to be surprisingly weak and not enough stimulus spending could lead to a CPI level below target. Gbp/Usd off 50 pips to 1.6415, Eur/Gbp at session highs .8590. |
| Posted: 19 Aug 2009 01:03 AM PDT Eurozone current account came in at 5.3B and non seasonally adjusted came in at -300M. There were no estimates for these current account figures. Prior readings were -1.2B for seasonally adjusted and -13.0B for non SA. No market reaction to figures as Eur/Usd remains just shy of 1.4100. |
| Sterling nears 100 hour M/A and gets a lift Posted: 18 Aug 2009 11:13 PM PDT
Poor performance of Asian equity markets sent Gbp/Usd tumbling down to 1.6488. Its 100 hour M/A stands at 1.6485 and may act as level of support. If it holds look for Gbp/Usd to rebound to the 1.6530-40 area, its 200 hour M/A lies at 1.6527. If if breaks lower it can be a sign of bearishness with not much support until 1.6430.
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2009 11:04 PM PDT German PPI m/m came in at -1.5%, weaker than the -0.1% expected. Eur/Usd has sold off a bit going into this data and has now leveled off around 1.4120. No major market effect of poor German PPI numbers. |
| Eur/Jpy approaching recent hourly bottoms Posted: 18 Aug 2009 10:55 PM PDT Eur/Jpy is approaching 133.19 which has been the hourly low several times in last 2 sessions. This may be a level to keep your eye on. A break below may see a move down to the 132.50 area. If it holds you could see a bounce to 133.95, an area of recent hourly highs.
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| Posted: 18 Aug 2009 08:29 PM PDT
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Good Morning:
upport as the pair rebounded to trade above 1.6500.
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