Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- August 10 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD moves to Fridays closing level
- GBPUSD moves lower overnight
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.10.2009
- Quiet night. Quiet start to the day. Friday still being digested.
- Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence
- French Industrial production and Manufacturing Production
- Sterling continues to trade below 200 hour M/A
- 8-10 Economic Calendar
- AUD Home Loans (m/m)
- JPY Current Account
| August 10 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 10 Aug 2009 06:40 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A sleepy start to the Forex, may give hints to bigger moves to come as the week is starting up. Friday provided a strong day and we look for a few of these this week. Thanks for all your feedback and positive comments. |
| EURUSD moves to Fridays closing level Posted: 10 Aug 2009 05:53 AM PDT Friday, the market closed at the 1.4171 level. The market has moved back to that level as NY decides to take back the corrective gains from the Tokyo and early London session. The market took out the previous low for the day at the 1.4168 level. The low from Friday reached 1.4154. This will be the next hurdle on the downside. The 1.4183 level remains a level to eye on the topside The price is the midpoint (50%) of the EURUSD move down from the high in July 2008 to the low reached in October 2008. The level was used as intraday support on a number of occasions overnight. It has recently broken below the level on its move to new intraday lows today.
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| Posted: 10 Aug 2009 05:30 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved lower overnight, still feeling pressure from the increase in the quantitative easing from last week and the better than expected US Employment report which led to higher dollar on Friday.
From a technical perspective, the market has now retraced more than 38.2% of the move up from the July 8th low of 1.5983 to the high of 1.7041 reached last Wednesday. The 38.2% level comes in at the 1.6637 level. The low today reached 1.6609 so far.
Today in early trade, the price tested the 200 hour MA and used the level as a ceiling to sell against. This moving average will be continue to be intraday resistance for the pair (currently at the 1.6728 level). As long as the price stays below the 100 (blue line in chart above) and the 200 hour MA the intermediate bias is bearish.
From a shorter term chart, the price is below both the 100 and 200 bar MA. The price dipped below these moving averages today at the 1.6694 to 1.6699 level earlier today, and started the trend lower. Sellers on the break of these moving averages would have been rewarded with a nice gain down. The 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart currently comes in at the 1.6654 level and this will be used as upside resistance today along with the 38.2% retracement level at the 1.6637 level. There is also lows and high that come in at the 1.6651 level which will act as upside resistance. There is some support at the 1.6571 level with the 50% retracement target at the 1.6512 level also in focus. The bias is to the downside for the pair |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.10.2009 Posted: 10 Aug 2009 05:16 AM PDT
The greenback was stronger against the GBP-and slightly softer against the Euro and JPY-as markets absord Friday’s move, after better than expected NFP data on Friday was a welcome surprise to investors. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European equity markets are lower at this time. US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening later this morning. No major economic data on the calender for today. Oil:$70.73 Gold:$953.25 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
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| Quiet night. Quiet start to the day. Friday still being digested. Posted: 10 Aug 2009 05:11 AM PDT The market had a very quiet night and a very quiet start to the NY day as well. There was little in the way of economic news and the US and Canada keep that trend in tact with no scheduled releases. The Treasury issued a letter over the weekend sent to Congress saying the current debt limit could be reached as early mid-October. This is indicative of the massive deficit that is growing as a result of increased spending and decreased tax revenues. For those not in the know, the Congress in the US must approve increases in the “Debt ceiling” when spending outpaces tax receipts and the Treasury is forced to increase the borrowing needs. The last time the debt ceiling was raised in February to $12.1 trillion. In more normal times, the debt ceiling is raised around every two years. Of course on Friday the market was influenced by the better than expected US employment report where theUnemployment rate fell for the first time since April 2008. The NFP came in at -247K which was the highest value since August 2008. The currency market decoupled from what was the normal reaction in recent memory. When the US data has been stronger, the reaction was for dollar selling against the CHF, EURO and GBP, buying of the USDJPY and Yen cross pairs, higher commodities and higher stocks. On Friday we got higher stocks and unchanged commodities, but all major currency pairs showed dollar strength. This may be because stronger economy means higher US interest rates which means higher currency. This week the Fed will have a two day meeting - concluding on Wednesday. The comments post the meeting will of course be of interest given the recent better US data - especially the Unemployment data. The dollar most likely has some futher consolidation to do before then with a chance to have some profit taking from those entering back in the market this morning. |
| Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence Posted: 10 Aug 2009 01:32 AM PDT Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence came in at -17, better than the -25 expected. No major impact on forex markets in very lackluster trading. |
| French Industrial production and Manufacturing Production Posted: 09 Aug 2009 11:50 PM PDT French industrial production m/m came in at 0.3% , better than the 0.2% expected French manufacturing production m/m came in at 0.4%, worse than the 0.5% expectation. No major market impact on numbers. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4195. |
| Sterling continues to trade below 200 hour M/A Posted: 09 Aug 2009 11:41 PM PDT Since Friday’s sell off of Gbp/Usd it has tried a number of times to break back above its 200 hour M/A to no avail. Sterling looks bearish as long as it stays under its 200 hour M/A. Next level of support would be 1.6590.
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| Posted: 09 Aug 2009 08:51 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Aug 2009 06:52 PM PDT The Australian Home Loans (m/m) came out worse that expected at 1.1% in comparison to the 1.9% expectation and the previous release of 2.2%. The AUD/USD is currently trading at session highs of .8393. |
| Posted: 09 Aug 2009 05:16 PM PDT The Japanese Current Account number came out at 1,152.5B Yen; much better than the forecasted projection of 655 B Yen and the previous release of 1,301.8B. The USD/JPY has had very little reaction to this data and the following additional releases and is currently trading off session lows. • Machine Orders (MoM) – Survey: 2.6% Actual: 9.7% Prior: -3.0% |
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