Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY moving back lower. Tests 100 and 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart
- Chicago PMI comes in at 50. The highest level since September 2008
- EURUSD has trendline and retracement support at the 1.4266 level
- August 31 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY has a volatile session overnight with the initail move lower than back up
- Canada GDP comes out +0.1% a touch lower
- Canada GDP for June and Q2 Annualized due out at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI and other regional Manufacturing indices released this morning
- Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
- Italian retail sales
- Aussie trending lower, approaches 100 hour M/A
- Japan housing starts weaker than expectations
- 8-31 Economic Calendar
- NBNZ Business Confidence
- Aussie Private Sector Credit and Inventories
| USDJPY moving back lower. Tests 100 and 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 31 Aug 2009 07:01 AM PDT
The stronger Chicago PMI failed to reverse the stocks declines. As a result,the USDJPY keeps its downward bias. The pair is currently testing the 100 and 200 BAR moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 92.97 level. When the price and moving averages converge it often leads to a move away from this equilibrium level. A move higher would need to break through the low from last week at the 93.21 level to confirm the upside momentum. A move lower, has good support at the 92.58 level (61.8% retracement support off the daily chart). The low for the day reache 92.53. |
| Chicago PMI comes in at 50. The highest level since September 2008 Posted: 31 Aug 2009 06:52 AM PDT Business barometer 50.0 vs 43.4 Prices paid 50.0 vs 35.0 This is the 1st reading at 50 or above since September 2008. The New Order component was also above the 50 level indicative of a expansionary Manufacturing base. . Despite the increase, the stock market continues to be sold off with the Dow down around 100 now. USDJPY is moving back lower after failing to remain above the 93.21 level (low from last week). |
| EURUSD has trendline and retracement support at the 1.4266 level Posted: 31 Aug 2009 06:30 AM PDT
Trendline support (7 different tests of the trendline) and 38.2% retracment of the move higher from the August 17th low comes in at the 1.4266-67 area. Look for good buyers against this level. A break below however, is likely to solicit additional selling in the pair with a 1st target of 1.4225. On the topside, there is the 100 hour MA at the 1.4298 level (blue line in the chart above). The 100 hour MA is going sideways for the last 2 days, indicative of a non trending market. Moreover the 200 hour MA is approaching the 100 hour MA (currently at the 1.4280 level). When the 100 and 200 hour MA converge along with the price, it often is a signal to the market that it is time for a move. So be aware and watch for breaks. |
| August 31 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 31 Aug 2009 06:29 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Good information in today’s show on the change of Japanese Govt and how it will affect the Yen. |
| USDJPY has a volatile session overnight with the initail move lower than back up Posted: 31 Aug 2009 05:57 AM PDT
The Democratic Party of Japan change the political climate in Japan, taking control from the Liberal Democratic Party. This is the 1st large shift in power in over 50 years The USDJPY initially fell off the news and a shift away from the riskier currency pairs as Asian stocks ended the month on the lows. The Shanghai index fell by 6.74% on the day and was down 22% for the month. The pair reached a low of 92.53. The 61.8% retracement of the move up from the 2009 low to the high reached in April. SInce the bottom the price has rebounded higher. The pair is testing the low level from Thursday at 93.21. The close from Friday came in at the 93.56 level and this will be the next target on the upside. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 93.76 level currently and represents another upside target level.
On the downside, look for support at the 92.93 to 92.99 level. This is where the 200 and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located. |
| Canada GDP comes out +0.1% a touch lower Posted: 31 Aug 2009 05:31 AM PDT The MoM came in at +0.1% vs +0.2%. THe YoY came in at -3.4% vs -3.0% expectations. 1st quarter fell by a revised -6.1% VS -5.4% last quarter. The gain for the month is the 1st increase since July 2008. |
| Canada GDP for June and Q2 Annualized due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 31 Aug 2009 05:26 AM PDT The expectation is for a gain of 0.2% for the month vs a decline of -0.5% last month. The 2Q is expected to show a decline of -3.0% vs -5.4% for 1Q.
Falling stocks has led to falling oil prices and lower gold and commodity prices this morning. As a result, the USDCAD has been falling steadily as it tends to be effected by the value of oil and commodity prices. In addition there are some widespread reports that the Canada GDP was leaked and will be lower than expectations. This too is contributing to the firmer tone in the USDCAD. The USDCAD broke through the downtrend line that has been in place since July. The pair has also moved above the 38.2% retracement at the 1.1048 level. The next target is 1.1105 to 1.1123 - the highs from August. Above that level is the 50% retracement at the 1.1176 price level. On the downside the 1.1048 level should hold the the correction levels. |
| Chicago PMI and other regional Manufacturing indices released this morning Posted: 31 Aug 2009 04:52 AM PDT
The Chicago PMI is for an increase to 48.0 from 43.4 last month. This would be the highest level since September 2008 when the index came in at 55.9. The next month it plunged to 38.3 - bottoming at 31.4 in March 2009. This month will be the 3rd increase in a row. The index will be released at 9:45 AM
The NAPM Milwaukee index for August will be next to be released at 10AM. It too is expected to do better - rising to 49.0 From 45.0 in July. The index did push up to 50.0 in June but fell back below the important 50 level which is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the Manufacturing Industry. Finally at 10:30AM the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to show an improvement to -14.0% from -25.5% last month. The percentage value is the difference between the percentage showing decreases from the percentage showing increases. The low was -57.3% in February 2009. A reading of -14.0% will be the best since May 2008. The |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2009 02:02 AM PDT Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate came in at -0.2%, slightly stronger than the -0.3% expected and the -0.7% prior reading. Eur/Usd made small push prior to number trading up to 1.4292, the pair currently trades at 1.4287. |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2009 01:03 AM PDT Italian retail sales m/m came in at -0.4%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at -0.8%, stronger than the -1.9% expected. No major impact on f/x markets as Eur/Usd trades at 1.4277, relatively unchanged from pre-number trading. |
| Aussie trending lower, approaches 100 hour M/A Posted: 31 Aug 2009 12:09 AM PDT Aud/Usd has been trending lower for last 6 hours of trading. It is now close to testing its 100 hour M/A which lies at .8360. On this first run down .8360 should be a good level of support. If it does break through its 200 hour M/A lies at .8340 and 50% fibo at .8343.
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| Japan housing starts weaker than expectations Posted: 30 Aug 2009 10:06 PM PDT Japan housng starts y/y came in at -32.1%, weaker than the -30.3% expected but slightly stronger than the 32.4% prior reading. No major market reaction on number as Usd/Jpy trades at 92.77. |
| Posted: 30 Aug 2009 08:48 PM PDT
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| Posted: 30 Aug 2009 08:01 PM PDT The National Bank of New Zealand Business Confidence reading for the month of August was 34.2; significantly higher than its previous release of 18.7. Kiwi got a light bid on this release. |
| Aussie Private Sector Credit and Inventories Posted: 30 Aug 2009 06:32 PM PDT The Aussie Private Sector Credit and Inventory numbers came out worse than expected as the AUD moves off session highs against USD. The releases were as follows:
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