Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- September 1st 2009 Morning Forex Report
- PMI Manufacturing better than expected
- Sept 01 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY corrects up to the resistance area and backs off today
- GBPUSD corrects back toward 100 hour MA but falls back down
- EURUSD hanging around MA levels. Approaches intraday resistance at 1.4331 area
- US ISM Data highlight US data today
- NZ Finance Minister English on the wires
- Sterling trading below its 100 hour M/A
- Eurozone unemployment
- UK economic data overall weaker than expectations
- Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2
- German unemployment
- German retail sales
- Swiss Q2 GDP
| September 1st 2009 Morning Forex Report Posted: 01 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT |
| PMI Manufacturing better than expected Posted: 01 Sep 2009 07:03 AM PDT ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 52.5 VS 50.0 IN JULY Data is better than expected. The New Orders better. Stocks are moving higher on the data. Dow is up 50 points. EURUSD is moving higher as is the USDJPY and cross currency pairs. PendingHome sales were also better at +3.2% versus expectation of 1.5%. |
| Sept 01 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 01 Sep 2009 06:19 AM PDT New Video Now Pending |
| USDJPY corrects up to the resistance area and backs off today Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:59 AM PDT
The USDJPY has a good resistance area at the 93.20 to 93.34 area. Over the last 4 or so days the price has used this area as first as an area of support and then as an area of resistance. Today the price tested the upper extreme on better China PMI data but the European bourses have since reversed and the risk appetite seen earlier turned to risk avoidance, and there was a fall in the USDJPY and the Yen cross pairs like the GBPJPY and the EURJPY. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has dipped below a trendline this morning athe 93.02 level. The 100 bar MA comes in at 93.12 currently. Look for some resistance against this level Much will depend on the stock market. Currently the stock market is down around 50 Dow points and 5 S&P points in pre open trading.
|
| GBPUSD corrects back toward 100 hour MA but falls back down Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:43 AM PDT
The GBPUSD corrected back toward the 100 hour MA but fell short. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.6256 level - reaching a high at the 1.6249 - but found upside sellers against the level. On the downside today has support along the hourly trendline which comes in at the 1.6200 level. THis level will be watched as support on the downside. The GBPUSD has been pressured on the back of weaker than expected ISM data this morning. This caused a sharp fall in the currency pair that saw the price move through the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above), down through the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). The decline stopped against the trendline support line. |
| EURUSD hanging around MA levels. Approaches intraday resistance at 1.4331 area Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:19 AM PDT
The EURUSD has the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.4304 and 1.4298 levels respectively. The pair has moved down below these two key MAs over the last few hours reaching a low for the day at the 1.4286 level. The pair found support against the 1.4282 level where the 61.8% retracement level is currently located. The market has since rebounded.
On the 5 minute chart the pair has some upside resistance against the 1.4331 level today. The midpoint of the days range comes in at the level and the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is starting to come down toward the level. The two MA are currently at the 1.4338 level.
From a longer term perspective, the price action has been converging the range over the last few weeks. The pair has resistance against the 1.4405 to 1.4411 level (1.4411 is the high close for 2009). On the downside, there is trendline support that comes in at the 1.4275 level. When activity consolidates ranges it will tend to break at some point to the upside or the downside. As a result, we are on alert for a break at some point.
In the Eurozone this morning the Final PMI data for August was stronger than expectations at 48.2 vs 47.9 preliminary. However, the weaker UK PMI data and subsequent fall in the GBPUSD dragged down the EURUSD in the process. There also was some talk from German officials on the potential for higher unemployment still yet to come. The German Unemployment showed a decline of 1K in the Unemployment Change for August. This was better than expectation for an increase in Unemployment of 30K. His comments seemed to be an attempt to temper any enthusiasm for the better data. |
| US ISM Data highlight US data today Posted: 01 Sep 2009 04:54 AM PDT
The US ISM Manufacturing data will highlight todays data (to be released at 10AM). The expectationis for a gain to over 50.5 from 48.9. The regional indices have been largely better this month. Yesterday, Chicago, Milwaukee and Dallas Fed indices were all better than expected. The national ISM has not been above the 50 level - the level associated with an expansionary manufacturing sector - since January 2008. The low reached 32.9 in December 2008. It has now risen for 7 straight months. The Prices Paid Index within the report is also expected to show a rise to 57.8 from 55.0.
Also released at 10 AM will be Pending Home Sales. They are expected to show a rise by 1.5% Month on Month. This measure is thought to be a leading indicator for future Existing Home Sales which are closed sales. The Pending Home Sales have grown for 5 straight months .
Finally, Construction Spending will be released at 10 AM. The expectation is for an unchanged reading after a 0.3% gain last month |
| NZ Finance Minister English on the wires Posted: 01 Sep 2009 04:31 AM PDT
|
| Sterling trading below its 100 hour M/A Posted: 01 Sep 2009 02:47 AM PDT Gbp/Usd has broken below its 100 hour M/A of 1.6261. After trending upward most of the session some unfavorable economic data out of the UK has seen the pair come off over 100 pips. Look for cable to test its 100 hour M/A on the topside, if it breaks above there isn’t much resistance in sight. If it doesn’t break above a repeated low of 1.6157 might be the next target.
|
| Posted: 01 Sep 2009 02:01 AM PDT Eurozone unemployment rate came in as expected at 9.5%. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4350. |
| UK economic data overall weaker than expectations Posted: 01 Sep 2009 01:41 AM PDT UK PMI came in at 49.7, weaker than the 51.5 expected. Mortgage approvals came in as expected at 50.1K Net consumer credit came in at -£0.2B, weaker than the £0.1B expected. The cumulative effect of these releases was a selloff of GBP across the board. Gbp/Usd off about 80 pips to 1.6260, Gbp/Jpy off about the same currently trading at 151.60. |
| Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2 Posted: 01 Sep 2009 01:01 AM PDT Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2 from 47.9 which was forecast. Eur/Usd show very little reaction to the number still trading around its high at 1.4368. We see some resistance coming up at 1.4375 today’s high and 1.4400. |
| Posted: 01 Sep 2009 12:58 AM PDT German unemployment change came in at -1,000, much better than the 33,000 expected. This is a positive for the Euro. eur/Usd has gotten a 10 pip lift thus far trading currently at 1.4267. |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2009 11:03 PM PDT German retail sales inline with expectations for m/m at 0.7%. That is a 2.0% jump from last months reading of -1.3%. Y/y came in at -1.0%, stronger than the -1.2% expected. Good numbers for the Euro and the market is proving that as Eur/Usd makes new session high at 1.4274. |
| Posted: 31 Aug 2009 10:49 PM PDT Swiss Q2 GDP q/q came in at -0.3%, stronger than the -1.0% expected. Y/y came in at -2.0%, stronger than the -3.0% expected. Strong numbers for CHF as Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf are trading close to session lows (1.5170 & 1.0563 respectively). |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment