Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD testing support levels at 1.5933 and 1.5957.
• EURUSD watching the corrective resistance at 1.4618 and supprort at 1.4584/88
• CHicago PMI comes in at 46.1. Weaker than expected.
• EURCHF tests support after break higher
• Sept 30 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Report on CHF
• GBPUSD moves lower on dollar buying. Upside resistance holds the top.
• $EURCHF and $USDCHF spikes on talk of SNB intervention
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.30.2009
• FXDD Online Training TODAY Wed Sept 30, 09 4pm
• ADP falls -254K for the month of September
• $EURUSD dips in early NY trade. Tests moving average support at 1.4538 level.
• Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning
• Gbp/Usd touches 1.6100
• Swiss KOF
• Eurozone CPI Estimate

GBPUSD testing support levels at 1.5933 and 1.5957. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 07:07 AM PDT The GBPUSD is moving through the 100 hour MA support at the 1.5957 level and has further channel trendline support down below at the 1.5933 level. The close from yesterday was 1.5960 level.  If the price can not bounce back above these levels soon, look for another leg to the downside.

EURUSD watching the corrective resistance at 1.4618 and supprort at 1.4584/88 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:54 AM PDT The EURUSD  has corrected off the lows following the volatility on the SNB intervention. The price is back up testing the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at the 1.4618  level. Watch this level as upside resistance. On the downside, the low this NY morning was 1.4584. The close yesterday was 1.4588.  Look for support against each with stops on a move below.

CHicago PMI comes in at 46.1. Weaker than expected. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:47 AM PDT Much weaker than expected (52 expected) Prices paid          51.3  vs 50.0 Production           47.2 vs  52.9 New orders           46.3  vs 52.5 Order backlogs       36.7  vs 45.8 Inventories          38.9  vs27.5 Employment           38.8   vs 38.7 Supplier deliveries  49.3  vs 54.6 This is helping to depresse the EURUSD initially as a flight to quality bid is the Pavlovian reaction.

EURCHF tests support after break higher Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:36 AM PDT The 1.5171 to 1,.5176 level is support in the EURCHF>  The 1.5171 is the 100 day MA support. The 1.5176 is the 38.2% retracement of the move higher today.  On the topside, the 1.5230 level was the high from September 17th.  The high reached 1.5239.  I would expect sellers on a break higher against the 1.5300 level.  A break above should not be ignored.

Sept 30 2009 Forex Market Update - Special Report on CHF Posted: 30 Sep 2009 06:26 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Reported SNB intervention led to some early fireworks today and dollar buying This reversed dollar selling overnight that saw the EURUSD and GBPUSD test topside resistance level. The volatile conditions has defined some key levels to watch this morning.

GBPUSD moves lower on dollar buying. Upside resistance holds the top. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:52 AM PDT The GBPUSD has gotten caught up in the dollar buying on the back of SNB buying and better GDP. The pair has moved below the trendline support now at the 1.6051 level.  Watch this level to provide resistance now. The earlier successful corrective test of the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement at the 1.6118 to 1.6135 level (high reached 1.6125) puts the bears back in charge.  The price also stayed below the neckline trendline from the head and shoulder formation off the daily report at the 1.6165 area which is also bearish for the pair. On the downside, look for support against the 100 hour  MA at the 1.5962 level.  The bottom trendline in the chart below also should provide some support at the 1.5927.  Resistance comes in at the 1.6035 and 1.6051 level.  If these levels can hold corrective moves, look for a wander back down for the pair.

$EURCHF and $USDCHF spikes on talk of SNB intervention Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT The EURCHF is spiking on the back of “talk” of SNB intervention.  The pair is back above the 200 hour MA at the 1.5125 level.  It has also moved above the 100 day MA at the 1.5171 level. Watch this level for support. Note the SNB officials have said they would be happy with a range of 1.50 to 1.53 in the EURCHF.   Perhaps the move below the 1.5200 level this morning was too close to the bottom of the range for the SNB (low reached 1.5075).  So although the upside is the risk, the upside might also be contained as the price moves closer to the 1.5300 level. The recent high came in at 1.5230. Look for support at the 100 day MA (1.5171).  The recent high in August reached 1.5230.  Look for sellers against this level at least initially.    The USDCHF has also risen back above 100 hour MA and trendline resistance. Both come in at 1.0318 level. Watch this level to provide  hold support going forward.   Onthe topside, the high yesterday came in at 1.0404 level.  A break of this level should lead to a test of the trendline from the channel at the 1.4033 level.  A break of this ultimately targets the 1.0507 level which is 38.2% retracement level of the move from the June 24th high to the recent lows.  A SNB spokeman has just come out and said, they do not talk about Swiss intervention. However, this is par for the course and should not suggest they are not in the market.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.30.2009 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD lost steam overnight as better than expected Australian Retail Sales (.9% vs .6%) moved the Aussie to a 13 month high.  Demand by Aussie consumers rose, as growth in the Australian economy which has been fueled by China’s demand for commodities, is making the yields in Australia the highest within the industrial countries. German employment data was better than expected, which is very positive for any EuroZone growth moving forward.  This data also helped push the Euro up and the USD lower. Worlwide equity markets are higher on this last day of the Q3.  US futures are also higher this morning.  Commodities in general are higher with metals leading the charge (Gold jumps over $1000/oz). Oil:$67.57                                      Gold:$1002.60 Today’s Data: ADP Employment Change:        exp: -200K         prior:-298K           act: -254K GDP- Q2:                                            exp: -1.2%           prior:-1% Pers Consumption:                       exp: -.9%              prior: -1% Chi Purchasing Mgr:                     exp: 52.0             prior: 50.0 NAPM Milwaukee:                         exp:                       prior: 56.0 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

FXDD Online Training TODAY Wed Sept 30, 09 4pm Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT FXDD’s next live online training with trainers Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell on trading in the Forex is today at 4pm. You’ll get great Forex training from two industry experts and you’ll have the opportunity to ask us questions about trading. Only register if you plan to attend. We want to make sure that there is room for everyone. Thanks Today Wednesday, September 30, 2009 Time: 4:00 pm, Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00) Session Number: 551 675 812 ——————————————————- To register for this training session Go to https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/k2/j.php?ED=111783792&UID=1023773432&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D&FM=1 ——————————————————-

ADP falls -254K for the month of September Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:17 AM PDT This is lower than expected at -200K. The NFP is expected to show a a fall of -180K on Friday.  The ADP has been overestimating the job declines over the last few months. The prior month was revised to -277K. This brings the number more in line with the NFP which showed a -216K number. The ADP does not include Government. This sector used to show a steady 20K rise. However, with the budget constraints on a state and local level, this sector is showing little growth.  The end result, is the number is in the ball park versus the estimate for NFP of -180K for Friday’s number.

$EURUSD dips in early NY trade. Tests moving average support at 1.4538 level. Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:00 AM PDT The EURUSD is testing the 100 hour MA after breaking above the trendline and 100 hour MA in Tokyo and London trade this mornng.  Yesterday the EURUSD tested old trendline support at the 1.4540 level, dipping to a low of 1.4526 on a comment by Fed’s Fisher but rebounding after that .  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4639 level.  There should be some support here.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also found at the 1.4633 level which also should provide some support. A break of the 1.4633 level should lead to a test the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above) on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4614 level.  This is also where the 61.8% of the days range is found.   On the topside, a break of the high for the day at the 1.4673 has next target resistance at the 1.4686 level where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the hourly chart above). A break of this level confirms the upside bias and should lead to further gains. Keep the 1.4719 level in mind. This level was the December 2008 high price which also wa a ceiling area last week after breaking lower (see hourly chart above)

Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning Posted: 30 Sep 2009 04:41 AM PDT Refinancings fell -0.8% Purchase Index fell -6.2% The Average Mortgage Rate fell to 4.94%.   4.61% was the lowest rate reached at the end of March The rate decline is encouraging and has to stay down to squeeze out more sales now that demand from new buyers has kicked in a bit - especially in the shorter end where new home owners are taking advantage of the stimulus plan and rebate for new homeowner program.  At 8:15 AM today the ADP Employment Change will be released for the month of September.  The expectation is for a -200K reading after a -298K fall last month.  The ADP report does not include government workers. Last month the fall of -298K overstated the job losses from the Non Farm Payroll as that measure showed a decline of -216K,  The Non Farm report for September is due for release on Friday and the is expected to decline by -180K as it continues its improvement.   The last two months have overstated the job losses by 82 and 84K.  The biggest difference was -158K in May when the ADP report estimated a decline of -461K vs -303K. Also at 8:30 the GDP for the revision to 2nd quarter will be released.  The estimate is for a -1.2% decline vs the original estimate of -1.0% with Personal Consumption showing a -1.0% decline.  Consumption which accounts for 70% of US GDP has been down for 3 of the last quarters. The 3rd quarter is more the focus now.  As a result, the market should not react strongly to this particular release this morning.  At 9:45 The Chicago PMI index is due.  The expectation is for another reading above 50 (52.0 Expected). This would be the highest level since September 2008. Finally at 10:00 AM the Milwaukee PMI is expected to come in. Last month the index rose to 56.0.  This was the highest reading since January 2008.  There is no estimate available.

Gbp/Usd touches 1.6100 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:41 AM PDT Upon establishing itself above 1.6033 (38.2 Fibo) Gbp/Usd strenghtened as cited earlier and traded up to 1.6100. If the pair is unable to remain above 1.6100 look for a pull back to the 1.6060-70 level. In the event it continues uptrend next resistance is at 1.6115 (50% Fibo) with stronger resistance at its 200 hour M/A of 1.6138.

Swiss KOF Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:32 AM PDT Swiss KOF Economic Barometer came in at 0.85, stronger than the 0.33 expected. Strong number for CHF as it trades just off lows of session at 1.0285.

Eurozone CPI Estimate Posted: 30 Sep 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone CPI Estimate came in at -0.3%, weaker than the -0.2%. Eur/Usd trading close to high of session at 1.4633.

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