Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Factory Orders are worse than expectations but prior month revised higher.
- EURJPY bounces off the channel support. Boosts USDJPY in the process.
- Sept 02 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY is testing the low close since Feb 2009
- ADP comes in worse than expected. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY fall on the report
- GBPUSD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6239 level
- EURUSD has up and down day so far. Range has consolidated between 1.4212 support and 1.4253 resistance
- Challenger Job cuts fell for the current month. ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM
- The Challenger Job Cuts YoY is due at 7:30 AM
- US Mortgage Applications fall by -2.2% for the week
- Eurozone economic data (GDP & PPI)
- UK PMI construction spending
- Spanish unemployment significantly higher than expected
- Gbp/Jpy daily snapshot
- 9-2 Economic Calendar
| Factory Orders are worse than expectations but prior month revised higher. Posted: 02 Sep 2009 07:11 AM PDT The Factory Orders came iin at +1.3% but the prior month was revised higher to +0.9% from +0.4%. The expectation was for a gain of 2.2%. Durable Goods orders was revised higher however, to +5.1% from +4.9% reported on August 27th. |
| EURJPY bounces off the channel support. Boosts USDJPY in the process. Posted: 02 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT
The EURJPY tested and bounced off the hourly channel trendline at the 131.05 level. The low reached 131.01. The market should find support against this level today and this in turn could give the USDJPY some support as well.
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| Sept 02 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 02 Sep 2009 06:38 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD morning commentary with a focus on trading opportunities for today. |
| USDJPY is testing the low close since Feb 2009 Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:38 AM PDT
The USDJPY is testing the low closing price since February at the 92.39 level. This level should provide some initial support for the USDJPY. A break lower would next target the low prices from July at the 91.78. A move back above the 92.50 level should confirm the low is in place for the time being, with a test of the 100 bar MA likely (blue line in the chart below).
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| ADP comes in worse than expected. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY fall on the report Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:19 AM PDT The August ADP Private Sector Employment report came in at -298K vs -250K expectation. The prior month was revised higher to -360K from -371K. Small businesses jobs fell by -122k while large businesses lost -60K suggesting the Mom and Pop businesses are being forced to close shop as consumers stay away. Once again the data does not include government which should make the number worse for NFP. However, of note is the NFP fell by 247K last month and the ADP showed a revised -360K decline. So the numbers are not exactly a match for NFP. The intial reaction is a fall in the GBPUSD and EURUSD. The USDJPY also fell. However, the falls are being retraced a little as the market settles in. Stocks are down 21 points (Dow futures). The S & P is down 2.0. Nasdaq is down 5 points. Oil is up 0.21 cents in early trade. The market is trying to develop the NY bias but the worse than expected data may cause the stocks to fall at the start at least. Note however, that the early declines have been finding initial support on the openings of late. The 1.4183 level remains the key suppport for the EURUSD. For the GBPUSD, the 1.6180 level is intraday support initially. |
| GBPUSD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6239 level Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:12 AM PDT
The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.6239 for the GBPUSD. The high for the day comes in at the 1.6235 so far. A move higher should lead to further upside momentum. The GBPUSD has been more supported today after failing to take out the low from yesterday at the 1.6112 level. Look for resistance on a move higher at the 1.6256 and 1.6285 level (close from Monday). |
| Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:03 AM PDT
The EURUSD closes the day yesterday at the 1.4224. The market moved down to our KEY support level at the 1.4183 level (see prior post from yesterday). The low reached 1.4189 where profit taking buyers entered and started moving the pair back to the upside. After stalling at prior resistance at the 1.4221 area, the price moved to the upside reaching a high of 1.4246. The market has found support since then at the 1.4212 level and seems to be content with using the 38.2% retracement of yesterdays range at 1.4253 as the upside resistance area. A move outside these ranges should see additional moves in the direction of the move. Traders can also use these ranges to buy or sell against until a potential trend is established. That is buy against the support level and sell against the resistance levels. |
| Challenger Job cuts fell for the current month. ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:37 AM PDT The Challenger job cuts fell by 13.8% YoY despite a bigger hurdle versus a year ago. The total cuts fell to 76,456 from 97,373 last month (-21.5 decline). THis was the second lowest level for the year. The low came in at 74,393 in June. The government led the cuts with 38,586 announced cuts. The Computer industry is the healthiest industry with only 75 announced job cuts.
This report does not say anything about hiring. The ADP Non Farm estimate is due at 8:15 and it will shed some light on the net change in jobs for the month of August. The estimate is for a decline of -250K jobs (not counting the effects of government). This compares to -371K last month for the report and versus a change of -247K of Non Farm jobs last month. Note that the ADP does not include public sector jobs (i.e. government). From the Challenger series, the number announced job cuts should imply a NFP that will be a bit worse than the announced number (assuming the government has a net job decline for the month). Also announced at 8:30 AM will be the Non Farm Productivity. This is expected to show a gain of 6.4% for the 2Q. This is unchanged from the prior estimate. Unit Labor costs are expected to also come in unchanged at -5.8%. As workers are let go, the Productivity tends to go higher as employers extract more product per worker to make up for lower profits. |
| The Challenger Job Cuts YoY is due at 7:30 AM Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:28 AM PDT
The Challenger Job cuts will be announced at 7:30 AM. Last month job cuts fell by 5.7% versus a year ago. FOr this month, the % change from a year ago will be compared to a lower value from last year. That is 88,736 job cuts were announced. In order to have a decline in the index this month, announced job cuts would need to be below this value. As a guide last month when the index fell by -5.7% that was compared to a higher year ago value of 103,312. The actual job cuts came in at 97,373 As a result, in order to show a 0% change, a decline in job cuts to 88,736 from the 97,373 will be needed. As a guide, the low job cuts in the recent data came in at 74,393 in June. |
| US Mortgage Applications fall by -2.2% for the week Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:19 AM PDT The Purchase index fell by -1.0% The Refinance index fell by -3.1%.. The average rate fell to 5.15% on 30 year loans for the current week. SO despite the fall in rates, the numbers were down. |
| Eurozone economic data (GDP & PPI) Posted: 02 Sep 2009 02:05 AM PDT Eurozone Q2 GDP q/q came in at -0.1%, inline with expectations. Y/y also inline at -4.7%. PPI m/m came in at -0.8%, weaker than the -0.6% expected. Y/y came in at -8.5%, weaker than the -8.4% expected. Eur/Usd holding at 1.4225, uninspired by data release. |
| Posted: 02 Sep 2009 01:35 AM PDT UK PMI construction spending came in at 47.7, slightly weaker than the 48.0 expected, but stronger than prior reading of 47.0. No major market effect as Gbp/Usd is trading slightly higher at 1.6143. |
| Spanish unemployment significantly higher than expected Posted: 02 Sep 2009 12:10 AM PDT Spain’s unemployment m/m came in at 85,000, worse than the 33,000 expected. It is the first rise in four months. Eur/Usd has since given back 25 pips worth of gains it had achieved in last hour. Now trading at 1.4220. |
| Posted: 01 Sep 2009 09:32 PM PDT Gbp/Jpy has been in a steady downtrend from a daily perspective. the pair is now trading below the 50% fibo retracement of 151.03 using 139.00 low from April 28 and 162.99 high from August 10. If trend continues support should come around 148.19 (61.8% fibo). A break of that level could bring the pair down to 145.00, the 200 hour M/A lies at 145.06.
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| Posted: 01 Sep 2009 08:28 PM PDT
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The USDJPY has rebounded after breaking below the 92.39 low closing price from July 10th (see 
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