Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF moves above trendline resistance but backs off. Tests again with upside target 1.0719 on a break
• Sept 4 2009 Forex Market Update - US Non Farms data
• USDCHF moves toward trendline resistance
• EURUSD moves down toward trendline support
• USDJPY has the wild ride after the number
• US Employment Report mixed with revisions. Unemployment Rate rises to 9.7% however
• A technical look at some of the major currency pairs
• Preview of the August US Unemployment Report
• Canadian Unemployment better than expected. USDCAD moves below 200 hour MA.
• Swiss CPI
• Trichet speaking at ECB Watchers conference
• 9-4 Economic Calendar
• A Preview of the US Unemployment Report for August
• Fed Fisher Comments Give the USD a Bid
• Fed Governor Fisher on the Wire

USDCHF moves above trendline resistance but backs off. Tests again with upside target 1.0719 on a break Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:32 AM PDT The USDCHF has moved above the key trendline at the 1.0685 moving to a high of 1.0698 on Stops. The pair has moved lower since but is back testing the key trendline again.  A move back above should solicit additional buying in the pair with a target at 1.0719 (the 38.2% retracement level).  Look for support at the 1.0659 level (38.2% of the days range).

Sept 4 2009 Forex Market Update - US Non Farms data Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A very exciting day in the Forex with lots of activity. Watch the video for information on the US Employment picture. Thanks for all of your comments and feedback.

USDCHF moves toward trendline resistance Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:00 AM PDT The USDCHF is approaching upside resistance at the 1.0682 level. This trendline comes down from the high on August 10th. Looking for some resistance at the level.

EURUSD moves down toward trendline support Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:55 AM PDT The trendline support comes in at the 1.4205 area.  Look for support against this level.

USDJPY has the wild ride after the number Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:42 AM PDT The pair tests support at 92.39 and the upside resistance at the 200 hour MA at the 93.26 level.  The price has come  down after testing the 93.26 level.

US Employment Report mixed with revisions. Unemployment Rate rises to 9.7% however Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:31 AM PDT NFP for Aug  -217K   vs 230K expectation.  Revision  -276K vs -247K Unemployment Rate 9.7 % vs expectation of 9.5% (last 9.4%) Work Week 33.1 hours (as expected) Hourly Wages +0.3% MoM, 2.6 % YoY 6.9 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the job recession.

A technical look at some of the major currency pairs Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:43 AM PDT The Unemployment number is due at 8:30. It can lead to volatile market conditions.  As a result risk is increased. Increased risk suggests a paring of positions to account for the increased risk and volatility.  Below is a current look at the major currency pairs along with some key support and resistance levels.   These levels can be used as guides for possible trading levels after the number is released.  Please note it is a holiday weekend, so there may be some added volatility up to when London goes home at around 12 noon.  However, holiday trading conditions this afternoon may prevail which could either mean quiet markets or choppy trading conditions.  Once again this increased uncertainty raises trading risk. Good luck. EURUSD Support comes in at 1.4236/42 where the 61.8% retracement and lows from yesterday and today are located.  The next support comes in at 1.4205 (trendline and lows) and 1.4177.  Topside resistance come in at 1.4313 and then trendline resistance at the 1.4341. USDJPY  The price was able to move above the 100 hour MA today at the 92.72 level. However the price remains below the 200 hour MA at the 93.27 level.   A move above this level should confirm a more bullish move today. On the downside, watch the 92.39 level.  This was the low close back in July. A move below this level should lead toward the low from yesterday at 91.94. GBPUSD GBPUSD held the 1.6298 support level overnight (38.2% retracement and low area from yesterday and today.  A move below this level should target the 1.6263 level where the Fibonacci Retracement and 100 and 200 hour MA are converging.  This is a key level to watch. A break should lead to lower levels for the pair.  On the upside the high from yesterday at 1.6412 will be eyed.   1.6427 is also upside resistance.   USDCHF The USDCHF is trading at the 100 and 200 hour moving average level.  This normally leads to a move away from the level.  A move below the this area (1.0615) should lead to yet another test of the 1.0531 to 1.0552 support level (lows for 2009).  The market may look to pause at 1.0566 where there are some low prices the market is likely to “remember”.   On the topside, the 1.0645 level and the 1.0682 trendline (going back to the high on August 10th) are key levels today.

Preview of the August US Unemployment Report Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:16 AM PDT Click on the following link to access a preview of the August US Unemployment Report.  Note: There is a file embedded within this post, please visit this post to download the file.

Canadian Unemployment better than expected. USDCAD moves below 200 hour MA. Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:04 AM PDT The Canadian Unemployment rate rises to 8.7% vs 8.8% expectation and 8.6% last month The Net Change in Employment is stronger, however,  at +27.1K jobs versus expectation of a decline of -15.0K.  Last month the Net Change in Employment showed a loss of 44.5. Note however that the change was all Part time Employers.  Although this may be a harbinger for future gains - as employers are still reluctant to hire full time - it may imply the data is not as strong as expectations.  Also, when the Canada Employment report is released on the same day of the US Report, the activity tends to slow down until the US report is released.   Overall a better then expected number.  The USDCAD has fallen below the 200 hour MA on the report at the 1.0950 level. This will now be resistance.  The suppport comes in at 1.0911 trendline (see chart above).

Swiss CPI Posted: 04 Sep 2009 12:17 AM PDT Swiss CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at -0.8%, weaker than the -0.7% expected.   Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf relatively unchanged trading at 1.5145 and 1.0601 respectively.

Trichet speaking at ECB Watchers conference Posted: 04 Sep 2009 12:10 AM PDT ECB’s Trichet is commenting at Watchers conference in Frankfort. He is reiterating statements made after yesterdays rate decision. Thus far no market effect from his commentary. He goes on to say the following; *Sees increasing signs of economic stabilization, too soon to call for end of economic crisis as uncertainty remains high *Recovery to be uneven *Exit strategy does not include interest rate considerations ; ECB has exit strategy and ready to put into action when time comes Eur/Usd trading close to session high at 1.4285.

9-4 Economic Calendar Posted: 03 Sep 2009 09:41 PM PDT

A Preview of the US Unemployment Report for August Posted: 03 Sep 2009 08:24 PM PDT For a detailed preview of the US Unemployment Repot click on the following link (PDF format). Note: There is a file embedded within this post, please visit this post to download the file. Thank you for choosing FXDD. Greg Michalowski

Fed Fisher Comments Give the USD a Bid Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:34 PM PDT The USD which has been under pressure from yesterday and that continued today following worse that expected Initial Claims numbers (revised worse as well), has caught a light big following the Fed’s Fishers comments (see prior post.) On the chart below you can see the Kiwi which was pushing up against the USD hit the 100hr moving average and pushed lower on the Fishers comments. We also see the AUD/USD moving lower, possible finding some support at the 200 hr moving average ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll and the last full day of summer.

Fed Governor Fisher on the Wire Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:09 PM PDT The Dallas Fed President Fisher had the following comments: Non-residential fixed investment may be growing. “Drag from residential investment” may have ended. “Financial headwinds” will take years to ease. A prolonged period of “sluggish” economy is likely. The “worst” may be over for household consumption. He also sees a “slow crawl out of purgatory” for household spending. The worst may be over for consumption. Financial markets still have a long way to go before they are back to normal. The major challenge is to spur growth while stabilizing debt. Job growth to be muted by tight budgets. Risk to price stability is deflation, not inflation. Inflation is being pressured downward by companies’ lack of pricing power. Need less money and labor dedicated to construction and finance. He reiterated that the Fed won’t monetize the national debt. It will be some time before we see net job creation. He believes a positive yield curve is a healthy thing. The only way to have sustainable economi growth is to allow private genius. The US interest rate is lower because of the Fed’s buying programs. He sees no reason to halt MBS buying program before the cap is reached. He is “praying” that the jobless rate does not hit 10%. Sees snapback effect but then slow rate of growth going forward.

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