Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD tests 50% retracement support again. 1.6485 eyed above.
• EURUSD heads back down in volatile trade. Tests support again at 1.4647-52
• USDJPY tests upside resistance at 90.68. Watching 90.40 area below for intraday support.
• Sept 16 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD tests 1.4647-52 level and bounces. 1.4719 eyed above.
• USDJPY testing the moving average and 38.2% retracement resistance.
• US CPI comes a little higher than expected on higher energy prices. Canada Manufacturing surprises to the upside.
• GBPUSD having upside issues. More of a negative bias so far today.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.16.2009
• EURUSD backs off from Dec 2008 highs. Corrects lower.
• Eurozone CPI
• UK unemployment data
• Usd/Jpy approaching recent low
• Swiss retail sales
• 9-16 Economic Calendar

GBPUSD tests 50% retracement support again. 1.6485 eyed above. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT   The GBPUSD is testing the 50% retracement level at the 1.6427 level. A break has the 1.6400 level as the next target with a break of that level then targeting 1.6353.  Watching the level closely. Upside should be contained by 1.6485 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart are located.  Activity remains volatile this morning.

EURUSD heads back down in volatile trade. Tests support again at 1.4647-52 Posted: 16 Sep 2009 06:55 AM PDT The EURUSD moved all the way up to the 1.4707 level. The high resistance continues at 1.4717 continues to be a key level. The price is now back down testing the 1.4647 to 1.4652 level where the high from Sept 14 and the high before the move higher yesterday at 1.4647 looms as support.  A break below is likely to solicit additional selling wth the potential for a move toward key support at 1.4621. The 100 hour MA comes in at the  1.4607 level. Upside intraday resistance comes in at the 1.4680-85 area now (see chart below).

USDJPY tests upside resistance at 90.68. Watching 90.40 area below for intraday support. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 06:43 AM PDT The USDJPY has squeezed higher in volatile trade to test the trendline resistance at the 90.68 level.  A move higher will target the 91.00 where the 100 hour MA is located.  If the level can hold at 90.68 (profit takers at the level) , a move back lower is likely as volatile trade conditions continue. Be on Alert. Support on the downside on an intraday basis is at the 90.40 level currently. This is where the 100 bar moving average on the 5 mnutue chart is found.  Watch this level closely. I would expect buyers against the level  with stops on a move back below the level.

Sept 16 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 16 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The US dollar is trading in a volatile fashion this morning respecting support and resistance levels so far. For a look at the key currency pairs watch the FXDD Morning commentary. Thank you for choosing FXDD Greg Michalowski Shawn Powell

EURUSD tests 1.4647-52 level and bounces. 1.4719 eyed above. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 06:01 AM PDT As per the prior post, the move below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart led to a move toward the key support at the 1.4647 to 1.4652 level (SEE PRIOR POST by CLICKING HERE).   The low reached 1.4652.  The market had a decision to make at the level and the price bounced back higher. The level corresponded with the lows from September 14th. The high yesterday before breaking higher was at the 1. 4647. This level will continue to be support today and now increases in significance since it held so nicely. The upside will continue to have resistance at the 1.4719 level. This was the high from December 2008.

USDJPY testing the moving average and 38.2% retracement resistance. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 05:49 AM PDT The USDJPY is testing the 38.2% retracement of the days range and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 90.51 and the 90.49 levels respectively. A break above targets the trendline resistance off the daily chart the 90.70 area.  As long as the price can remain below these key levels the bias remains to the downside for the pair.

US CPI comes a little higher than expected on higher energy prices. Canada Manufacturing surprises to the upside. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 05:33 AM PDT US CPI come sin at +0.4% MoM vs +0.3% expected Ex Food and Energy come in at +0.1%  which is as expected Gas Prices rose by 9.1% on the month after falling -8.1% in July.  YoY CPI comes in at -1.5% vs expectation of -1.7% expectation. Ex Food and Energy YoY comes in at 1.4% vs +1.4% expected. The US Current Account came in at -98.8B which is lower than -92.0B expected but higher than the -101.5 in the 1st quarter  A lower dollar should help that release. In Canada Manufacturing Sales were much stronger at +5.5% vs +2.5% due to Auto Production resuming.  The much stronger number has led to a stronger CAD$ at least initially (lower USDCAD) .  The USDCAD price moved below the 100 bar moving average at the 1.0695 level. Corrections should stay below this level.  The low today came in at 1.0659.  Look for bids against this level with a break leading to further downward pressure.

GBPUSD having upside issues. More of a negative bias so far today. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 05:22 AM PDT Although the EURUSD remains positive from a technical basis, the GBPUSD remains challenged by moves to the upside.  The pair closed yesterday at 1.6485 yesterday and trades at that level currently. The low reached down to 1.6431 overnight.  The high extended to 1.6527, just short of the 50% retracement level of yesterday’s move lower at the 1.6529.  The 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.6516 level currently and although the price has moved above the level yesterday and today, the pair has not been able to maintain upside momentum on any move above the level.  This level will be our key resistance level this morning .  If the price can move above the level and maintain above the level, the upside should be explored further with a test of the 1.6529 and a move toward 1.6560 a possibility.  Key, key resistance remains at the 1.6589 level. On the downside, the price is currently breaking below the close from yesterday and also the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. They are both converged at the same  level (at 1.6482)  which is indicative of the potential for a move away from the current level. A break lower turns the bias more to the downside with target the lows for the day  at 1.6431.    The market should now find sellers against the level this morning.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.16.2009 Posted: 16 Sep 2009 05:14 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro posted a new yearly high overnight as the EUR/USD pair traded in the 1.47 handle.  Aussie also set a yearly high by breaking the 87.00 level.  The JPY is also strong as it  trades in the 90 handle. Worldwide equity markets were mostly higher, and commodities traded higher as Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the recession is over.  Also Warren Buffett announced that he was back in the market buying equities, which added a sense of confidence in the marketplace. Oil:$70.71                       Gold:$1018.00 Today’s Data: CPI                   exp: .3%                            prior: 0.0 Acct Bal:        exp: -$92.0B                  prior: -$101.5B Tic Flow:       exp; $60.0B                    prior: $90.7B Ind Prod:      exp: .6%                            prior; .55 Cap Util:        exp; 69.0%                      prior: 68.5% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD backs off from Dec 2008 highs. Corrects lower. Posted: 16 Sep 2009 04:57 AM PDT As per prior discussions, the EURUSD broke through the September 14th high at the 1.4652 level and moved up to the next target level at the 1.4719 level (SEE PRIOR POST). This level corresponds with the December 18th 2008 high (that stopped right at the 200 day MA!).  The high today did not quite get up to this obvious technical level - falling short by 6 pips at 1.4713.  This is normal, as traders will sell against a key level, looking to benefit from the short term move back down as profit takers enter.  The risk for those traders?  Stops were most likely set at 1.4719-25.  Now the market price has corrected back down to a low corrective price of 1.4667.  The old week high from September 14th and yesterdays high before the break higher, remains as downside support. That level comes in at 1.4647 to 1.4652.  The 100 hour moving average is moving higher - currently at the 1.4604 level.  Yesterday and on Monday, the EURUSD dipped below these moving averages but could not maintain the momentum to the downside.    The moving average is moving higher each hour and approached the 1.4621 level which is another important support level on the downside. Looking at the intraday 5 minute chart for clues, the price is currently back below the 100 and 200 bar MA giving a short term negative bias. Those levels come in at  1.4684 and 1.4674 respectively. Most of the day, the price has been above these levels. As long as the price can remain below these levels, further corrective action down toward 1.4647 to 1.4652 can be anticipated.  Then we can see what the market decides.  Can the EURUSD go higher?   As mentioned in the past, the trend in the EURUSD is to the upside.  Trends are established when shorter term players keep selling higher levels in this case while longer term traders are happy to buy from them.   Eventually, the shorter term traders cover, this helps push the pair higher still.  The longer term players like their position.  The charts need to tell you when to sell.  So far, since September 4th the price has been above the 100 hour MA with the exception of two attempts over the last couple of days and as mentioned each attempt, could not muster the momentum.  How high can it go?  There is not much resistance up ahead. The above weekly chart has resistance at 1.4866, then 1.4951.  The all time high reached 1.6037.  So how high is high?  The answer to that is how ever long the technical clues the market gives me, remains positive.  Right now, as long as the price remains above the 1.4621 level.  As long as the price remains above the 100 hour MA.    The bias remainst  to the upside.

Eurozone CPI Posted: 16 Sep 2009 02:06 AM PDT Eurozone CPI y/y came in at -0.2%, inline with expectations. Core CPI y/y came in at 1.3%, slightly stronger than the 1.2% expected. Eur/Usd ran up to 1.4710 upon release of data and has since pulled back to 1.4695.

UK unemployment data Posted: 16 Sep 2009 01:38 AM PDT UK claimant count came in at 24,400, slightly better than the 24,700 expected. The unemployment rate came in at 7.9%, also slightly better than the 8.0% expected. Average earning index was off slightly , it came in at 1.7%, 2.1% was expected. Seemingly good numbers for the pound , Gbp/Usd made a new session high at 1.6508. It has currently pulled back to 1.6480.

Usd/Jpy approaching recent low Posted: 16 Sep 2009 12:52 AM PDT Usd/Jpy is approaching its recent hourly low of 90.19 from September 11. This level should be an area of support. If it breaks below look for 90.00 to be a psychological support level. If it holds then a retracement back to 90.60 is likely.

Swiss retail sales Posted: 16 Sep 2009 12:27 AM PDT Swiss retail sales y/y came in at 1.0%, stronger than the 0.7% expected. Usd/Chf  trading at low of session (1.0322).

9-16 Economic Calendar Posted: 15 Sep 2009 08:55 PM PDT

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