Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCHF tests 200 hour MA and trendline support at the 1.0290 to 1.0297 levels
- Sept 25 2009 Forex Market Update
- GBPUSD continues the fall but rebounds of double bottom today.
- US Durable goods for August 2009 fall 2.4% in August
- US Durable goods for August 2009 due out at 8:30am
- Having some technical difficulties so updates may be sporadic
- Usd/Jpy trades down to 90.00
- UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment
- Eurozone data below expectations
- Eur/Usd finds resistance at 1.4700
- German GfK Consumer Climate
- 9-25 Economic Calendar
- GBP/USD Breaks Down
- Fed’s Warsh on the Wire
- FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas.
| USDCHF tests 200 hour MA and trendline support at the 1.0290 to 1.0297 levels Posted: 25 Sep 2009 06:58 AM PDT
The USDCHF has support and is testing the 200 hour MA and old trendline support line we have been following (see prior post) at the 1.0297 and 1.0290 levels respectively. A move below this level will muddy the bullish waters a bit. A move up to 1.0368 which is the low price from December 29, 2008, is the next upside target. A move below the 1.0290 level will likely test the 100 hour MA again currently at the 1.0271. |
| Sept 25 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 25 Sep 2009 06:02 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A busy day in the Forex, to start off the last day of trading. We review the head and shoulders formation that has moved the GBP/USD to the downside over the past few days. |
| GBPUSD continues the fall but rebounds of double bottom today. Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:36 AM PDT
The GBPUSD broke through neckline support yesterday at the 1.6164 area and fell sharply. The trend continued today with a new low being made at the 1.5915 level. This is the lowest level since June 8th when the price reached a low price of 1.5801 before rebounding sharply. On that day, the price closed at the 1.5974 level, the most recent low close . This is currently where the market is trading. I will be watching this level today with intraday bias to the downside below while bias to the upside on a move higher. The 1.5965 level is also a minor intraday support level on an intraday basis. This is the 61.8% retracement of the last intraday spike higher. The price is in a narrow range around these two levels. However, the pair remains under pressure.
On the upside a move above 1.5974 would look toward resistance against the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.5999 and 1.6005 levels. A move lower will target the 1.5940 level. The double low at 1.5915 should also provide support but do not fade breaks lower. |
| US Durable goods for August 2009 fall 2.4% in August Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:33 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders Fall 2.4% in August; Analysts Expected an Slight Increase in Orders. Core orders, excluding transportation remained neutral at 0.0%. |
| US Durable goods for August 2009 due out at 8:30am Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:07 AM PDT We will see the release of US Durable goods for August at 8:30am. Analysts are expecting a +0.3 gain with the core figure to come in at +0.9%. The core figure excludes transportation. Last months release for July, saw U.S. durable goods orders increase by the largest amount in two years according to a report released by the U.S. Commerce Department today. Durable goods orders in the United States advanced by 4.9% in July to a total of $168.4 billion after declining by a revised 1.3% in June. Durable goods orders have now increased in three of the last four months and July's data was spurred higher by a increase in aircraft orders. New orders for durable goods excluding transportation gained by 0.8% in July following a revised increase of 2.5 percent in June and marked the third straight monthly gain. |
| Having some technical difficulties so updates may be sporadic Posted: 25 Sep 2009 05:01 AM PDT Just to let all those know. We are experiencing some technical issues with the blog. It does not effect the trading side, so no fear. As a result, updates might be sporadic until the issue is cleared. |
| Posted: 25 Sep 2009 03:15 AM PDT Usd/Jpy has been under pressure for most of the session and has just down to 90.00. It immediately traded up 20 pips to 90.20 after the fact. It is likely it will make another attempt to break below this psychological barrier. Usd/Jpy has not traded below 90.00 since Feb.12 of this year. |
| UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment Posted: 25 Sep 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK Q2 Final Total Business Investment q/q came in at -10.2%, better than the -10.4% expected. Y/y came in at -21.8%, weaker than the -18.4% expected. Mixed data out of UK leading to little movement in sterling at the moment as Gbp/Usd remains 1.6005-10. |
| Eurozone data below expectations Posted: 25 Sep 2009 01:07 AM PDT Eurozone M3 money supply y/y came in at 2.5%, below the 2.7% expectation. Italian retail sales came in at -0.4%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Eurozone private loans y/y came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Overall weak numbers for the Euro. Eur/Usd off about 10 pips to 1.4672 since data release. |
| Eur/Usd finds resistance at 1.4700 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 11:58 PM PDT Eur/Usd has recovered nicely off earlier low of 1.4614. It briefly traded above 1.4700, but seems to have run into some resistance. The 38.2 % Fibo lies at 1.4699 and 200 hour M/A not far off at 1.4709. If these levels can hold look for the pair to start another downward trend, maybe back down to 1.4630 area. A break above finds more resistance at 1.4729 which is the 100 hour M/A.
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| Posted: 24 Sep 2009 11:03 PM PDT German GfK Consumer Climate came in at 4.3, stronger than the 3.9 expected and 3.7 prior reading. Eur/Usd relatively unchanged on positive news, currently trading at 1.4685. |
| Posted: 24 Sep 2009 09:16 PM PDT
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| Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:32 PM PDT After trading under considerable pressure the last 24 hours, following comments from the BOE’s King that a softer Sterling was helping rebalance the economy and that 2 major British banks were on the brink of collapse last October due to a liquidity shortfall (RBS & HBOS), the Pound continued lower and abruptly so after the 1.60 handle were apparently stops awaited. The Cable has recovered somewhat off the lows, but with equities continued to be pressured and the USD holding its bid, the short-term bottom could still be ahead. On the daily chart below we see support at the 38.2% retracement of the recent move to 1.70.
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| Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:12 PM PDT The Fed’s Warsh one of the more hawkish FOMC members has the following comments in regards to the US economy, that helped the USD continue its bid:
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| FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas. Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:10 PM PDT FBI arrested a Jordanian citizen in Texas for an attempted bombing in Dallas. |
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