Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD falls through trendline support at 1.4537.
- Sept 10 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY falls further after the US data. Tests key support area.
- Trade deficit worsens to -32.0 billion. Initial Claims falls
- Trade Balance and Weekly Claims data due at 8:30 AM
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.10.2009
- EURUSD continues to consolidate. Trendline support tested.
- GBPUSD moves convincingly above the 1.6589 level and surges higher
- BOE keeps rates unchanged and Quantitative Easing in tact
- Italian Q2 Final GDP
- ECB Monthly Report; much of the same
- Halifax housing price index (UK)
- 9-10 Economic Calendar
- Australian Employment Report
- Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectation
| EURUSD falls through trendline support at 1.4537. Posted: 10 Sep 2009 06:50 AM PDT
The EURUSD fell through the trendline support at the 1.4537 level and the market has sold off on the break. The pair has reached a low of 1.4502. The correction could see the pair move toward support at the 1.4465. The 38.2% retracement level comes in at 1.4448. The 2009 high prior to this last break higher came in at the 1.4447. A move below 1.4447 would not be welcomed from the EURUSD bulls.
On the topside the resistance at the 1.4621 level remains the key level (see earlier post). The high today reached 1.4607. Although 14 pips from this target resistance, this was close enough for the sellers to enter the market. Look for sellers against the trendline today. |
| Sept 10 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 10 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD ran into some sellers as the price moved closer to target resistance. The GBPUSD is trying to stay above the key 1.6589 level. For a look at these pairs and others watch the FXDD Morning commentary. |
| USDJPY falls further after the US data. Tests key support area. Posted: 10 Sep 2009 05:44 AM PDT
The USDJPY has continued its fall post the US data at 8:30 AM. The price overnight used the 38.2% retracement level of the move lower from the September 7th high to the September 9th low. That level comes in at the 92.25 level. The high last night came in at 92.25.
The pair is now down testing the July low level of 91.72. The low yesterday came in at 92.61. This should slow the decline. However, a move below the level should lead to further downward pressure in the pair. |
| Trade deficit worsens to -32.0 billion. Initial Claims falls Posted: 10 Sep 2009 05:33 AM PDT The Initial Claims fell from 576K to 550 K for the current week. This is good news but still high. The Continuing Claims also fell to 6088K from 6247K last week. The debate is whether the decline in Continuing Claims is due to real improvement or because those unemployed no longer receive benefits. The bigger trade deficit came in at -32.0 B for July. The inflation adjusted Trade Balance also worsened to a monthly deficit of -38.811B from -35.768 B. This is worse than expectations and should lead to slightly lower GDP. Exports increased by 2.2%, while imports rose by a greater 4.7% for the month. The wider trade deficit has led to a lower dollar. A lower dollar will make Exports more competitive abroad (and imports more expensive) which in theory will balance out the Trade Balance all things being equal. The deficit with Europe and the Pacific Rim countries all worsened. The Europe Trade Balance went to -9.804 B from -5.406B while in the Pacific Rim nations the deficit worsened to -25.271B from -22.499 Billion. |
| Trade Balance and Weekly Claims data due at 8:30 AM Posted: 10 Sep 2009 05:29 AM PDT The Trade Balance is expected to show a Trade deficit of -27.3 Billion. The Imports and Exports are expected to both rise. The market will also pay attention to the inflation adjusted figure as this is what is used for GDP calculations. Last month the fifure came in at -35.94 Billion |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.10.2009 Posted: 10 Sep 2009 05:25 AM PDT
As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged. The BOE also announced that they will continue to purchase up to $290 Bil in assets to shore up the weak economy. The USD and JPY rose overnight as equity markets were lower in Europe. Asian markets were mixed. US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. China’s Premiere made comments overnight that China “will not and cannot” pull back on current economic stimulus programs, as the Chinese economy is ”unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid”. On another note, OPEC ministers agreed to keep production at present levels, hoping to maitain current prices in the $72/bar range. Metals are also lower this morning. Oil:$71.60 Gold:$989.30 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| EURUSD continues to consolidate. Trendline support tested. Posted: 10 Sep 2009 05:14 AM PDT
The EURUSD tested the trendline support, currently at the 1.4534 level. The low reached 1.4519 on the hourly, but the price did not close below the line. We will give the failure the benefit of doubt this time. However, a break below again should lead to further downside pressure. Keep an eye on the level. The downside will be confirmed with the break of the last low at 1.4519. A move lower should look to target the 38.2% retracement level at 1.4443 and the 100 hour MA, currently at the 1.4428 level.
A move higher will need to get through the the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4560 level (see chart below). Above that the high for the day at the 1.4586 level and the high for yesterday at 1.4599 all will be levels the market has to confront.
Ultimately to the upside sits the 61.8% retracement level of the longer term move from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low at the 1.4621 level. This level should slow a move to the upside. |
| GBPUSD moves convincingly above the 1.6589 level and surges higher Posted: 10 Sep 2009 04:53 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has surged above the 1.6589 level and is currently testing the next resistance at the 1.6620 level. The next level is the the 1.6661 high from June 3rd. The high from June 30th comes in at the 1.6743 level. These are the two spike highs above the 1.6589 level in June. In the end of June/begining of July the GBPUSD went up to the the 2009 high price of 1.7028.
Support on the downside will now be focused on the 1.6589/97 area. As long as the price can remain above these levels the price has further room to the upside.
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| BOE keeps rates unchanged and Quantitative Easing in tact Posted: 10 Sep 2009 04:37 AM PDT The BOE kept rates unchanged and kept the Quantitative Easing level on hold. This led to a spike higher in the GBPUSD to 1.6597 in very hectic trading. From that point the price started to correct lower. Last month the market did not like the additional QE of 50 B pounds. This month they seem to be applauding not increasing the amount.
The close yesterday was 1.6545. The low off the correction came down to the 1.6542. This level will be watched on the downside. Below that is the 100 and 200 bar moving average for the pair at the 1.6533 and 1.6534 levels respectively. A break below these support levels will lead to further declines with 1.6509 the next target level to the downside. On the topside the market has the high side resistance against the 1.6589 to 1.6597 level which has held the topside for 2 plus days now. A move above will next target the 1.6620, 1.6661 and 1.6689 respectively. |
| Posted: 10 Sep 2009 02:05 AM PDT Italian Q2 Final GDP q/q came in as expected at -0.5%. Y/Y also as expected at -6.0%. No market reaction to flat numbers as Eur/Usd trades at 1.4555. |
| ECB Monthly Report; much of the same Posted: 10 Sep 2009 01:10 AM PDT ECB’s monthly report reiterates commnets made by Trichet in recent weeks. ECB sees significant economic contraction coming to an end. The risks to ECB’s forecasts are balanced. Eurozone recovery to be gradual and uneven and interest rates are appropriate for current circumstances. Eur/Usd got a 10 pip boost on release trading currently at 1.4575. |
| Halifax housing price index (UK) Posted: 10 Sep 2009 01:03 AM PDT Halifax HPI m/m came in at 0.8%, weaker than the 1.0% expected. Gbp/Usd off 10 pips to 1.6510 since the release. |
| Posted: 09 Sep 2009 08:46 PM PDT
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| Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:34 PM PDT Australia’s employment numbers for August came in worse than expected and the Aussie got hit across the board, the details of the release are as follows:
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| Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectation Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:00 PM PDT The September Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation came in flat at 3.5%, the same as the August reading. The AUD had a limited reaction to this release. |
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