Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY tests the July low at 91.73
• USDJPY moves below lows from yesterday at the 92.02.
• USDCHF bounces off the 1.0400 level. A moves back toward 1.0432 low from yesterday may be in the cards now.
• Beta Test today at 4pm for FXDD live Training
• Sept 09 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY falls below shorter term moving average support. Lots of support at 92.02/08
• GBPUSD moves higher. Breaks above trendline. Key test time for the pair.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 9.2009
• EURUSD consolidates gains from yesterday. Breaks to new highs in early NY trade
• Mortgage Applications rise by 17.0%
• UK July Trade Balance slightly worse than expected
• Eur/Gbp trading at 200 hour M/A
• 9-9 Economic Calendar
• AUD and NZD Move Lower on Weaker Numbers
• BOJ’s Suda on the News Wires

USDJPY tests the July low at 91.73 Posted: 09 Sep 2009 07:07 AM PDT The USDJPY is now testing the July low of 91.73.  Stops being hit.  The pair should find some support at the level.  There is not much support below this level to be honest, but there is some lows, highs at the 92.50 area

USDJPY moves below lows from yesterday at the 92.02. Posted: 09 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT A break of the key resistance should see the pair move toward the 91.73 low from early July

USDCHF bounces off the 1.0400 level. A moves back toward 1.0432 low from yesterday may be in the cards now. Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:48 AM PDT The USDCHF found a bid at the 1.0400 level after breaking below the lows from yesterday at the 1.0432 level.  A move back above this level will likely lead to further corrective move higher in the pair toward the 1.0455 level where the 100 and 200 bar MA are converged.  On the downside, buyers against the low (at 1.0400 to 1.0410) are now likely.    On a break the Dec 28th low of 1.0368 is the next target low level for the pair.

Beta Test today at 4pm for FXDD live Training Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:38 AM PDT We are having our second test today at 4pm. This is your chance to participate in a live training session with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell. We will be doing real time market analysis and answering your trading questions. Email us with your full name and email address before 1pm to be added to the list. You will get an email confirmation with a link to sign up for the training. The only requirements are an interest in trading Forex and you need to fill out a two minute survey afterwards. If you are already signed up, you do not need to sign up again.

Sept 09 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The US dollar has continued the selling in the NY session today. New 2009 lows against the EURUSD and USDCHF. The GBPUSD and USDJPY have remained below/above key support/resistance.

USDJPY falls below shorter term moving average support. Lots of support at 92.02/08 Posted: 09 Sep 2009 06:02 AM PDT For the USDJPY bears, the price moved back below the 200 bar MA on the shorter term chart after holding the level for most of the trading day. The level comes in at the 92.37 level currently.  The close from yesterday was 92.32.   The 100 bar MA comes in at the 92.43 level.  These levels should provide upside resistance for the pair today. On the downside, the support at the 92.02 to 92.06 from yesterday remains a formidable task.  I would expect intraday buyers against the level today.

GBPUSD moves higher. Breaks above trendline. Key test time for the pair. Posted: 09 Sep 2009 05:39 AM PDT Since the high yesterday at the 1.6586 level (key resistance remains at 1.6589 - see post from yesterday), the GBPUSD has been forming a descending flag formation.  Earlier today, the pair moved above the top trendline but quickly reversed.  The ensuing correction took the price down to the 50% retracement support level at the 1.6454 level (low reached 1.6454).  This successful test, led to the move back higher over the last 4 or so hours. The price has just broken back above this trendline at the 1.6531 level (see chart above).  This level should provide support this morning.  A move above the high for the day is the next level to confirm the upside break (1.6563). A successful move above that hurdle will pave the way for another test of the 1.6589 key resistance level.    If the price moves back below the 1.6531 level, a move down to test the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is likely (at 1.6510 level).  See the chart above.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 9.2009 Posted: 09 Sep 2009 05:23 AM PDT Good Morning: I have been away on holiday, and I hope all o f you enjoyed the summer which is now officially over. The Euro strengthened overnight against the USD and JPY.  Speculation that the world economies are starting to rebuild after the worst economic slowdown since World War 2 has traders looking for better yields not safer havens. European equity markets are higher this morning (which helped the Euro rise).  Asian  markets were mixed , and US Futures are unchanged at this time. Gold is wavering at the $1000/oz price as investors seek ways to hedge against inflation and a weaker USD. Oil traded around the $71.50/bar range.  OPEC ministers meet this week in Geneva-and no major changes are expected from the cartel. Oil:$71.48                               Gold:$999.40 Today’s data: Fed Beige Book at 2 PM HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD consolidates gains from yesterday. Breaks to new highs in early NY trade Posted: 09 Sep 2009 05:10 AM PDT The EURUSD just made new day highs at the 1.4528 level.  The high from yesterday came in a 1.4530.  The close from yesterday was down at 1.4478.  The low today was 1.4466.  From a technical perspective, the 1.4447 level remains a key level on the downside.  This corresponds with the 2009 high price prior to yesterdays break higher.  Below that level 1.4411 is another key level.  This was the highest closing level for the EURUSD before yesterday’s higher close.   The pair is also back above the trendline that connects tops from the June 3rd high and the August 3rd high (1 in the chart above) . This level comes in at the 1.4510 level today.  This level will be watched in early trade this morning.  Buyers may look to buy against the level with the hopes that a move above the highs from yesterday, lead to another move to the upside for the pair.   Where can the market go?  On the upside the target remains the 1.4621 level. This level corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low.  Above that level is the December 2008 spike high at the 1.4719 level.  The market should move toward this level as long as the shorter term bias remains positive.  In order to do that key support levels on shorter term charts should hold.  This may include the 100 and 200 bar moving average on the shorter term 5 minute chart (green and blue line at 1.4495 in the chart below).  This morning the price has started to move away from those shorter term moving averages after waffling above and below the levels during most of the London morning session in a consolidating, no trending trade.   Other support levels include the 1.4447 level (old high price).

Mortgage Applications rise by 17.0% Posted: 09 Sep 2009 04:45 AM PDT The Mortgage Applications rose by 17% for the current week.  This is up from a -2.2% decline last week. The gain is the highest since March 20th.  Purchase index rose by 9.5% the Refinance rate rose by 22.5% as the mortgage rate fell to 5.02% for 30 year mortgages.  There are rumblings that speculative buyers are snapping up properties in depressed areas as price and rates have fallen enough to make the rent/buy decision in the favor of buyers.  The rebate benefit to 1st time home buyers is also a continued stimulus which is scheduled to end November 30th.   This may bring about a larger sense of urgency for 1st time homebuyers to take advantage of the $8000 one time rebate.  The problem is financing as credit remains tight.  This may skew the benefits to the ”haves” versus the “have nots” who are forced to rent instead.  This - in the long run - may not bring about a stable housing market as buyers may choose to resell after the price have increased a small amount (quick flip). In either case, the Existing Home Sales should continue to show improvement and this in turn will benefit the overall economy as goods and services are needed by new home owners.  So just as the falling home prices had implications far reaching in the overall economy, a bottoming housing market will have positive far reaching implications for everyone from home inspectors, cable television companys, home improvement stores, and durable good sellers like furniture and appliance retailers.

UK July Trade Balance slightly worse than expected Posted: 09 Sep 2009 01:37 AM PDT Uk July Trade Balance came in at -6.5B, worse than the -6.3B expected.  Total Trade Balance came in at -2.4B, worse than the -2.0B expected. Sterling had sold off prior to release of  figures, with Eur/Gbp making new high (.8797) and Gbp/Usd new low (1.6454). Seems bad trade figures built in and possibly oversold as the Pound is rebounding nicely trading at 1.6483 vs. Usd.

Eur/Gbp trading at 200 hour M/A Posted: 08 Sep 2009 11:52 PM PDT Eur/Gbp is trading at its 200 hour M/A of .8771. If it can hold below look for the pair to continue its downward trend that it began at yesterday’s high of .8791. The 61.8% Fibo should lend some support at .8752, followed by the 100 hour M/A of .8748. A break higher could bring pair back to yesterday’s high of .8791.

9-9 Economic Calendar Posted: 08 Sep 2009 08:59 PM PDT

AUD and NZD Move Lower on Weaker Numbers Posted: 08 Sep 2009 07:36 PM PDT The AUD and its cousin the NZD, moved to new yearly highs late in Asian trading yesterday and then again broke through those levels and made new highs today ahead of the Asian equity market open and maintained their bid on multi-year highs for the Australian consumer confidence reading. However, the move was short-lived as both currencies sold off on worse than expected retail sales and home loan figures from Australia. The instant reaction and modest follow through on these back dated July releases continues to give the feeling of a thin market moving toward stops rather than on fundamentals. On the charts below, we see the AUD/USD pair move toward yesterday’s top and the NZD/USD doing the same. The markets continue to perplex, but perhaps the first full day off fall trading is not indicative of things to come.

BOJ’s Suda on the News Wires Posted: 08 Sep 2009 07:30 PM PDT The BOJ’s Miyako Suda stated that Japan’s economy has stop worsening, but he notes that they need to keep an easy money policy for now. He also made the following comments: The role of unconventional measures is falling. An expansionary policy risks boosting the economy more than expected. Downside risks in the near future are falling. The Japanese economy is steadily heading towards a pick-up. There is still a high level of uncertainty about the economy. The Capital expenditures environment remains severe. There is a high risk of prices falling more than expected in the near future. CPI falls within expectations thus far. The doubt over fiscal discipline may push up long- term rates. The global financial market still remains unstable. Corporate funding conditions are clearly improving. Must watch longer-term inflation expectations.

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