Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Stocks move lower and drags down the EURUSD
- Sept 08 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD top trendline tested at the 1.4503 level
- Canada Building Permits fall 11.4% due to strike. USDCAD pressured with the dollar and higher oil.
- USDJPY moves toward last weeks lows but remains above as stocks remain higher on the day.
- GBPUSD moves higher but remains below resistance. Bias still to the upside.
- EURUSD searches for the next resistance levels
- German industrial production
- EURUSD tests 2009 high. Support from 1.4400 to 1.4414 currently.
- UK manufacturing and industrial production stronger than expected
- German trade balance and current account
- Swiss unemployment slightly better than estimates
- Usd/Jpy finds support in 100 hour M/A
- Eco Watchers Survey (Japan)
- 9-8 Economic Calendar
| Stocks move lower and drags down the EURUSD Posted: 08 Sep 2009 06:49 AM PDT
The stocks moving lower has helped drag down the EURUSD. The holding of the trendline at the 1.4505 level (1.4507 high) was also a contributing factor. The pair now has support at the old 2009 high at the 1.4447 level. Look for buyers against this level. Below that is support at the 1.4411 level which is the high closing level in 2009. Above, the 1.4504 level will be the level to sell against. Focus has turned to equities. Keep a eye on Gold as well as it too should continue to be eyed by the market participants. |
| Sept 08 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 08 Sep 2009 06:42 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The US dollar has sold off today on the back of increased demand for Gold in lieu of US dollars. The end of summer/start of the final 3-4 months of the trading year, may have also contributed to the breakaway day. |
| EURUSD top trendline tested at the 1.4503 level Posted: 08 Sep 2009 05:58 AM PDT
EURUSD tests trendline resistance at the 1.4503 level. A break should lead to further upside moves. |
| Canada Building Permits fall 11.4% due to strike. USDCAD pressured with the dollar and higher oil. Posted: 08 Sep 2009 05:35 AM PDT A strike in Toronto by city employees resulted in a 11.4% decline in Canada Building Permits. If the city was excluded the fall would have been 1.8%. This is still lower than the expectations of 0.4% gain. The figure should help support the USDCAD. However, the USDCAD has been under pressure due to the weak dollar overnight and higher oil prices. OPEC is meeting this weeks and may lead to increased oil price volatility.
The USDCAD broke through trendline support today at the 1.0770 area The low for the year comes in at the 1.0630 level. There is interim support against the August 5th/6th lows of 1.0672. The low today has reached 1.0672. On the upside, The 1.0719/25 is the next target resistance level. Look for some sellers against this area. (see chart below).
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| USDJPY moves toward last weeks lows but remains above as stocks remain higher on the day. Posted: 08 Sep 2009 05:14 AM PDT
The USDJPY has move down today in sympathy with the decline in the US$. However, the pair remains above the lows from last week at the 91.94 level. Below this level is the lows from July at the 91.72 level. These levels should provide support for the pair today. The stock markets have remained supported despite the fall in the dollar. The Dow Futures are up 70 points. S& P futures are up 9 points and the Nasdaq is up over 13 points. This may helps support the USDJPY and the JPY crosses. However, the markets are fragile and this may cause some additional volatility after the stock market officially opens in NY at 9:30 AM.
Resistance for the day initially comes in at the 92.42 level. This is where the 38.2% retracement of the days range comes in and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently found. On trendlike days, I like to look at the retracement ranges on a day basis for clues. |
| GBPUSD moves higher but remains below resistance. Bias still to the upside. Posted: 08 Sep 2009 04:42 AM PDT
The 1.6589 level remains a key level on the upside. The high today has been 1.6574. The 1.6589 level is high closing level from the daily chart of the majority of the trading range from June through August. A break above should lead to sharply higher levels for the pair. There is support at the 1.6521 level today and below that the 1.6485 level (38.2% retracement).
The bias remains to the upside for the pair as the 1st day after the summer moves out of the dollar is significant, and stronger data out of the UK today (Industrial Production/Manufacturing Production), have both helped contribute to the bullish tone. |
| EURUSD searches for the next resistance levels Posted: 08 Sep 2009 04:10 AM PDT
With the EURUSD breaking out today to the upside, the longer term target remains the 1.4621 level where the 61.8% retracement level is located.
Prior to that level may be the highs off the hourly chart going back to December 18th when the market spiked higher to the December high of 1.4719. If you take a look at the hourly chart from back then, some high bars came in at the 1.4488 to 1.4494 level. This may cause some pause. However, there really is not much further resistance until the 1.4621 level on a move above.
Down below the 1.4444/1.4447 level is now support with further support against the 1.4411 level. The bulls are definitely in charge. It is the first day after the end of the US summer so this should continue to lead to a bias to the upside. |
| Posted: 08 Sep 2009 03:02 AM PDT German industrial production m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the 1.6% expected. Y/y came in at -17.0%, weaker than the -15.8% expected. Seemingly weak numbers for Euro as Eur/Usd trades down from recent high to 1.4453, off about 20 pips. |
| EURUSD tests 2009 high. Support from 1.4400 to 1.4414 currently. Posted: 08 Sep 2009 02:14 AM PDT
The dollar is being sold as Gold moves above the $1000 per ounce level. The EURUSD has moved up to test the old 2009 high of 1.4447 (high has been 1.4444) after breaking through trendline resistance at the 1.4384 level. A break above this level should solicit stop buying for the pair.
Support on the downside now comes in at the 1.4411 level which is the high closing price for 2009 and at 1.4400 which is the 38.2% retracement level of the move up today. The low correction price has been 1.4414 which should also provide some support. A move below the 1.4400 level will be needed to suggest the high has been temporarily hit. The 1.4384 (trendline from first chart above) and 1.4387 level ( 50% of the days range -see chart below) is the next support level.
On the topside, a break of the 1.4447 would target the 1.4621 level which is the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low.
The break of the trendline (at 1.4384) and move above the 1.4400-1.4411 level is a bullish play today. The bears will have to wrestle control away by moving back through the key support levels. If not the likely move is still to the upside. |
| UK manufacturing and industrial production stronger than expected Posted: 08 Sep 2009 01:41 AM PDT UK manufacturing production came in at 0.9%, stronger than the 0.3% expected. Overall strong numbers for the pound as it has risen to new highs against Usd and Jpy (1.6521 & 152.38 respectively) |
| German trade balance and current account Posted: 07 Sep 2009 11:03 PM PDT German trade balance came in at €13.9B , stronger than the €11.3B. Current account came in at €11.0B, stronger than the €10.0B expected. Good numbers for Euro as Eur/Usd trades at its high 1.4348 in tight trading range. |
| Swiss unemployment slightly better than estimates Posted: 07 Sep 2009 10:53 PM PDT Swiss unemployment rate came in at 4.0%, setter than the 4.1% estimate but weaker than the 3.9% prior reading. Good number for Chf as Usd/Chf trades at its low of 1.0587 in very light trading. |
| Usd/Jpy finds support in 100 hour M/A Posted: 07 Sep 2009 10:49 PM PDT Usd/Jpy is trading just above its 100 hour M/A of 92.72. After attempts to break above 200 hour M/A earlier the pair has been in a tight range , threatening to break below the 100 hour M/A support. If this level can hold look for Usd/Jpy to reverse and target the 200 hour M/A of 93.02. A break below should bring the pair down to 92.45, the 61.8% Fibo of Sept. 3 low of 91.94.
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| Posted: 07 Sep 2009 10:02 PM PDT Economic watchers survey came in at 41.7, weaker than the 43.1 expected and prior reading of 42.4. No market reaction in very light trading thus far. Usd/Jpy trading at 92.75, Gbp/Jpy 1.5160, Aud/Jpy 79.25. |
| Posted: 07 Sep 2009 09:59 PM PDT
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