Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US Consumer Confidence comes in weaker
- Feds Fisher comment sends dollar up
- EURUSD moves up to test our target at 1.4578.
- Sept 29 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDCHF rally finally takes hold. Price moves above 1.0368. Watch this level today.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 29.2009
- EURUSD remains depressed today. Tests key trendline support at the 1.4540 level.
- GBPUSD rises on better data today
- Russian Central Bank possibly to further diversify holdings
- Sterling soars on strong CBI Realized Sales
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- UK Economic Data
- Gyothen comments (Japan MoF)
- Usd/Jpy trying to gain foothold above 90.00
- Aud/Jpy above 100 hour M/A
| US Consumer Confidence comes in weaker Posted: 29 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT The US Consumer Confidence was weaker than expected and this too is pressuring the currencies (leading to a rise in the US dollar). The expectation was for a gain of 57.0. The actual number came in at 53.1. The EURUSD has moved below the key 1.4540 level to a low of 1.4526. There is support at the 1.4518 level which is the 50% of the move up form the September 4th low. A break below would target the 1.4447 level which is the old high price from August. |
| Feds Fisher comment sends dollar up Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:53 AM PDT Feds Fisher commented that the Feds reversal of policy could be equal in speed as seen in its easing. Housing market is bottoming but still on life support. The comment on the Fed reversal has spooked the dollar higher. However, it is not anticipated that this reversal is imminent. Nevertheless, the EURUSD is back down testing the support at the 1.4540 level |
| EURUSD moves up to test our target at 1.4578. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:38 AM PDT
The EURUSD had good support at the 1.4540 as per the prior comment (see Prior Post). The ability to hold the level and move higher is positive for the EURUSD. The corrective move has moved above our first targe at 1.4557 and then to our second target level of 1.4578. The high reached 1.4575 and has backed off a little. The corrective move off the 1.4578 level came down to 1.4557 level (low was 1.4558). Needless to say, the price is in between the support at 1.4558 and the resistance at 1.4578. Look for the mkt to make the call. A break higher targets 1.4603. A move lower, should test key support at 1.4540 again. |
| Sept 29 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 29 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD moved lower. The GBPUSD moved higher. This helped pressure the EURGBP in the process. USDCHF also broke above topside resistance. |
| USDCHF rally finally takes hold. Price moves above 1.0368. Watch this level today. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:50 AM PDT
The USDCHF finally made a somewhat valient effort to break to the upside. The price moved back above the 1.0368 level (Dec 2008 low price). The move used the 100 hour MA as a springboard for the move higher yesterday. Both the 100 and 200 hour MA are moving up now and both have converged at the 1.0292 level. The price is at the highest level since September 15th. The high on September 21st reached 1.0388. The correction has upside resistance at the 1.0418/22 level which is the high price on September 14th. The 50% retracement of the move down from the September 4th high to the low comes in at the 1.0443 level. Longer term, the USDCHF move down from the June 24th high comes in at the 1.0507 level. This is the a longer term target for the pair now that the price has moved back above the 1.0368 level.
On the downside, look for support at the 1.0368 level. If the price can hold this level, there could be a further spring board effect for the pair. A move below should find support at the 1.0358 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 29.2009 Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:37 AM PDT
I was away in Chicago last week and had some technical difficulties with Bobby’s Corner. All seems to be back on track. The USD rose as evidence shows that global economies have yet to shed the worst of the global recession, slowing demand for higher-yielding assets. Also helping the greenback was the Russian central bank’s decision to lower interest rates, as concerns mount that their is more work needed to spur a recovery in Russia and around the globe. Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is lower at this time, and US futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning after yesterday’s 124 pt increase. Oil:$66.29 Gold:$989.40 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| EURUSD remains depressed today. Tests key trendline support at the 1.4540 level. Posted: 29 Sep 2009 05:14 AM PDT
The EURUSD has remained depressed today - down on the day and reaching new move lows. The move lower today pushed the price to a test of the old trendline at the 1.4540 level. The low price reached 1.4536 and has bounced. Look for continued buying against this level. A break however, should lead to lower levels with the next target support at the 1.4447. The was the old high from August 5th.
A rebound off the support could has upside initial resistance at 1.4557. A move above this level targets the 1.4578 level. |
| GBPUSD rises on better data today Posted: 29 Sep 2009 04:55 AM PDT The CBI Distributive Trade data came out better than expected and this was enough to increase the level of the GBPUSD in London Trade. Also helping the pair is a apparent denial that the BOE would lower the rate to negative rates on deposits. This also buoyed the pair and led to gains.
The GBPUSD pair has been depressed since falling through the neckline trendline from a head and shoulders formation at the 1.6165 area and in the process moved to a low of 1.5769 (yesterday). The low today reached 1.5824 before starting the rebound.
The price is well above the closing level from yesterday now at the 1.5880 level. The last 4 days have been down days, so this is a positive technical development for the pair. The corrective move higher today and consolidative range yesterday, has also allowed the 100 hour MA catch up to the current price. The 100 hour moving average nevertheless remains higher above at 1.6056, However, it is declining at a clip of 4 pips per hour. Before that level there is upside resistance at the 1.6035 level. These two level will converge this morning and should the market continue to move higher, the market will have a decision to make - does it want to move above or is the correction enough. What usually happens is the market uses the 100 hour MA as a profit taking level or level to initiate shorts. Keep an eye on the level on rallies higher.
On the downside, watch for support at the 1.5957 level. This was the high reached before the pair started moving lower today toward the days lows. Additional support should come in at the 1.5924 level where the high from yesterday and the 38.2% retracement of the days range is found. The 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.5912 level currently and rising. A price above this MA gives a positive short term bias. Breaking below the neckline trendline in the GBPUSD last week should keep the pressure to the downside over the medium term. However, the market has the taste of a correction today (and is up today) so dip buying will likely be the course of action. |
| Russian Central Bank possibly to further diversify holdings Posted: 29 Sep 2009 03:39 AM PDT Russian Central bank could add Aud and Cad to its reserves. They will not be reducing share of US treasuries in reserves from existing 30%. This coming from the 1st deputy chairman. |
| Sterling soars on strong CBI Realized Sales Posted: 29 Sep 2009 03:08 AM PDT Sterling got a big lift of much better than expected CBI Realized Sales. It came in at+3, -15 was expected. Gbp/Usd rose of its low of 1.5824 to 1.5890 just prior to release of great sales figure and extended gains to 1.5935. Currently the pair is trading at 1.5925. |
| Posted: 29 Sep 2009 02:05 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -19, stronger than the -21 expected. Eurozone economic confidence came in at 82.8, slightly stronger than the 82.7 expected. Business climate indicator came in at -2.07, weaker than the -1.92 expected. Mixed results for Eurozone figures. Eur/Usd initially got hit about 10 pips tp 1.4580 and has since recovered to pre number levels (1.4590-95). |
| Posted: 29 Sep 2009 01:38 AM PDT UK Current Account came in at -11.4B, weaker than the -7.7B expected, however prior reading of -8.5B was revised to -4.1B lessening the effect of weak current account figures. Mortgage approvals came in at 52,300, stronger than the 51,500 expected and prior reading of 50,100 was revised up to 52,400. Final GDP q/q came in as expected at -0.6%, y/y came in at -5.5%, weaker than the -5.4% expected. Overall numbers are pretty much inline with expectations. Gbp/Usd trading at pre number levels 1.5865-70. |
| Posted: 29 Sep 2009 01:04 AM PDT Japanese Minister of Finance Gyothen does not view Jpy rise as sharp and does not see big turbulance in current F/X price action. Japanese policy makers continue to back off statements made earlier in the week citing a stronger yen. Usd/Jpy slightly higher after commnets at 89.80. |
| Usd/Jpy trying to gain foothold above 90.00 Posted: 28 Sep 2009 10:48 PM PDT Usd/Jpy has been trading around 90.00for the last 5 hours. It seems the pair is having a hard time establishing itself above this tricky level. It will be interesting to see upon the European open if the pair can break above 90.00. If it does look for a run up to 90.29 which is the 61.8% Fibo using Sept. 24 high of 91.57 and Sept. 25th low of 88.22. If it fails and heads lower 89.50 should be level of support (38.2% Fibo).
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| Posted: 28 Sep 2009 08:58 PM PDT Aud/Jpy is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 78.58 and just north of the 61.8% Fibo using Sept. 23rd high of 80.04 and Sept. 28th low of 76.49. If it can hold above the 61.8 Fibo (78.69) it should test the 200 hour M/A which lies at 79.01. It has been on a steady uptrend from the Sept. 28th lows. A break below its 100 hour M/A could see the pair correct back down to 78.00 level. At the moment the second scenario does not seem as likely. The market will tell the story.
A break below its 100 hour M/A could see the pair correct back down to 78.00 level. |
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