Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• GBPUSD moves toward the target support at the 1.6427
• EURUSD moves back above 1.4600. But finds sellers against 1.4621
• Dollar goes bid on the back of the better data - at least initially
• Retail Sales, PPI, Empire Manufacturing all higher than expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 15.2009
• GBPUSD falls overnight. Blames comments by BOE’s King
• US Retail Sales, PPI and Empire Manufacturing Index due out at 8:30 AM
• Live Online Forex Training today at 9am. You must pre-register
• ZEW Economic Sentiment
• UK data stronger than expected
• Swiss industrial production
• 9-15 Economic Calendar
• Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• Aud Housing starts q/q came out worse then expected at -3.7%
• UK RICS House Price Balance

GBPUSD moves toward the target support at the 1.6427 Posted: 15 Sep 2009 07:08 AM PDT The GBPUSD tested the target support at the 1.6427 level earlier - reaching a low of 1.6432 (See earlier post by clicking here).  The market rebounded off the level moving to a high correction level of 1.6473 - well short of the resistance at the 1.6501 level where the 38.2% retracement and the 200 hour MA is located.  The price is now back down testing the support. I would expect additional profit taking against the level.  Should the price break below the 1.6427 level, however, this should solicit additional selling pressure,  with the 1.6353 level being the next target level (61.8% of the move up from the September 2nd low).  Look for profit takers but be aware of the downside potential.

EURUSD moves back above 1.4600. But finds sellers against 1.4621 Posted: 15 Sep 2009 06:50 AM PDT The EURUSD has been able to move back above the 100 hour Moving average after breaking below the level earlier today on the back of the better than expected data out of the US.  The 100 hour MA came in at the 1.4580 level.  The move below triggered stops to a low of 1.4560, but the price has been able to rebound.  The move higher has taken the pair to a high of 1.4614. This is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. It also is close enough to the 1.4621 level which has been a key resistance level for the EURUSD off the longer term daily charts. The level has attracted sellers which is as expected.  SO the price is stuck between the resistance at the 1.4621 level and the support down below at the 1.4580 level.  The market will be taking clues from these levels today, with likely profit taking buying against the support and sellers against the resistance.  Since the pair is down on the day, the bears seem to be more in control at the moment.

Dollar goes bid on the back of the better data - at least initially Posted: 15 Sep 2009 05:42 AM PDT The stronger data has the dollar moving higher as a initial reaction. The USDCHF is moving above the 100 hour MA now at the 1.0385 level currently.  Earlier in the London session the price moved above the level but backed off .  A move above now is likely to lead to higher levels for the pair, with a target of 1.0466 where the 38.2% of the move down is currently located. Meanwhile, the EURUSD has moved back down to test its 100 hour MA at the 1.4580 level. A break should target the low from yesterday at the 1.4516 level and the 38.2% retracement of the move higher from the September 2nd low to the 1.4476 level.

Retail Sales, PPI, Empire Manufacturing all higher than expected Posted: 15 Sep 2009 05:35 AM PDT Retail Sales much stronger than expected.  +2.7% for the headline versus +1.9% expected. The ex Autos rose 1.1% vs +0.4% expected.   PPI was also much stronger than expected rising by a large 1.7%.  Ex food and Energy up less at +0.2 vs +0.1%.    Finally, Empire Manufacturing came in a 18.88 vs +15.00 Expected. This is the highest since November 2007.  Prices Paid                           20.24 vs  13.83 Prices Received                -3.57 vs  -12.77 New Orders                        19.84  vs 13.43 Shipments                            5.34 vs  14.11 Delivery Time                     1.19 vs -10.64 Inventories                        -25.00 vs -22.34 Unfilled Orders                 -4.76 vs  -9.57 Number of Employees   -8.33 vs  -7.45

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 15.2009 Posted: 15 Sep 2009 05:18 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY declined versus the USD and Euro on the heels of President Obama’s comments that the U.S. economy looks to be growing again, waning interest in the JPY as a safe haven. Today’s data on Retail Sales is expected to rise by 1.9% in August as the “cash for clunkers” program drew consumers to auto showrooms.  Also today, we are expecting  data on PPI, Empire Manufacturing, and Business Inventories. U.S. Traesury officails are discussing how to sell the 34% stake of Citigroup that the US ownes as part of the bailout package that the US offered Citigroup.  With yesterday’s close-the Treasury is sitting on a  paper profit of $9.77 bil. Asian equity markets closed higher overnight.  European markets are mostly positive, and US futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$69.41                               Gold:$999.30 Todays Data: PPI                          exp: .8%                  prior: -.9% Retail Sales:         exp: 1.9%               prior: -.1% Emp Mfg:              exp: 14.                  prior: 12.08 Bus Inv:                 exp: -.8%               prior: -1.1% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD falls overnight. Blames comments by BOE’s King Posted: 15 Sep 2009 05:13 AM PDT The GBPUSD fell overnight on the back of comments from BOEs King saying that he would consider lowering the rate the Bank pays institutions for deposits with the central bank in order to spur on more lending.  Although he shied away from adding more quantitative easing measures, the market may think the possibility of increased government purchases might be considered given the worry about lending.  Additional QE measures have the effect of increasing the lending ability of the UK banks.   The GBPUSD has fallen from a high of 1.6658 to a low of 1.6451 so far.  In the process the pair moved back below the 1.6589 level (it paused at the level earlier).  The price also fell through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at the 1.6600 level and 1.6496 respectively.  Finally, the pair broke through the trendline support at 1.6543.  Needless to say, the move has done some technical damage to the downside. On the downside, the next target for the pair comes in at the 50% retracement of the move up from the September 2nd low. That level comes in at hte 1.6425 level.  On the upside, the pair will be watching the 1.6496 to 1.6507 level for good resistance.  This level is where the 200 hour MA is located, the 38.2% retracement (at 1.6500), and the the 200 hour MA on the 4 hour chart (at 1.6507).  A move above this level will next target resistance at the 1.6530 level.  As long as the price can now remain below this level a move toward the 1.6425 level is more likely.

US Retail Sales, PPI and Empire Manufacturing Index due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 15 Sep 2009 04:41 AM PDT The US will release the Retail Sales for August along with the PPI for the same month.  The Retail Sales data will be boosted by Auto sales as a result of the Cash for Clunkers program. The estimate is for a gain of 1.9% for the month with the Ex Auto component estimated to come out at +0.4% (vs -0.6% last month).  The PPI is expected to rebound with a 0.8% gain after falling by -0.9% last month. They Ex Food and Energy is expected to rise by 0.1% for the month versus a fall of 0.1% in July.  For the Year on Year figures, the inflation rate is expected to fall by -5.3% vs -6.8% last month.  Part of the gain is as a result of the expected large increase this month. The other part is as a result of the falling out of a -0.5% change that occurred last August. Over the coming months, -7.2% of cumulative monthly declines in PPI will drop out of the YoY data (see declines in Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec 2008 in the chart above).  As a result, the PPI will show a quick move higher toward +2.0% YoY. The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to 15.0 from 12.08 last month.  The positive reading last month was the first increase since April 2008.  Component Values from last month showed New Orders rose to the highest level since November 2007. Prices Paid                            13.83 Prices Received                  -12.77 New Orders                            13.43 Shipments                               14.11 Delivery Time                      -10.64 Inventories                           -22.34 Unfilled Orders                    -9.57 Number of Employees      -7.45

Live Online Forex Training today at 9am. You must pre-register Posted: 15 Sep 2009 04:15 AM PDT Thanks for attending the Beta-test.

ZEW Economic Sentiment Posted: 15 Sep 2009 02:11 AM PDT German ZEW Economic Survey came in at 57.7, weaker than the 59.9 expected. Current situation came in at -74.0, weaker than the -67.7 expected. Eurozone ZEW came in at 59.8, stronger than the 57.8 expected. Current Situation came in at 59.6, weaker than the 60.0 expected. Bad German Zew numbers caused Eur/Usd to tumble down to session low of 1.4580. It has currently rebounded slightly, trading at 1.4592.

UK data stronger than expected Posted: 15 Sep 2009 01:47 AM PDT UK CPI y/y came in at 1.6%, stronger than the 1.4% expected. RPI y/y came in at -1.3%, stronger than the -1.5% expected. Core CPI came in at 1.8%, stronger than the 1.6% expected DCLG HPI y/y came in at -8.3%, stronger than the -9.5% expected. Gbp/Usd ran up to 1.6658 on strong economic data out of UK. It has currently pulled back to the 1.6625-30 level.

Swiss industrial production Posted: 15 Sep 2009 12:20 AM PDT Swiss Q2 industrial production m/m came in at 2.7%, weaker than the 7.3% expected. Weak number for Chf, as Usd/Chf makes new session high at 1.0368. Eur/Chf also at session high trading at 1.5145.

9-15 Economic Calendar Posted: 14 Sep 2009 09:02 PM PDT

Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Posted: 14 Sep 2009 06:42 PM PDT The Reserve Bank of Australian Released their September Monetary Meeting Minutes. The details of the release are as follows: The Australian economy is stronger than earlier forecast. It will need to raise interest rates in due course. The Slowing of private wage growth will contain inflation. Export volumes holding up, business spending rising. Australian equity raisings remain strong. Balancing risks to inflation versus need to support recover. Australian business credit still “very weak”. Australian bank funding costs have risen. Following this release the AUD sold of slightly across the board as it reached new session lows against the USD of .8590.

Aud Housing starts q/q came out worse then expected at -3.7% Posted: 14 Sep 2009 06:35 PM PDT Aud Housing starts q/q came out worse then expected at -3.7% from 2.1% forecasted and slightly better from previous -4.0%, Aud/Usd showing very little reaction to the number and still trading around session lows at 0.8615.

UK RICS House Price Balance Posted: 14 Sep 2009 04:04 PM PDT The RICS House Price Balance for the month of August was much better than expected at 10.7% versus its forecast of 0.0% and prior release of -8.1%. The USD was hit across the board and Sterling moved through the figure to 1.6606.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610