Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD breaks higher. Back above yesterdays highs at 1.4736.
• Philadelphia Fed Index comes in at 14.1 for September
• Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM
• EURUSD rebounds back toward 1.4719/27 resistance
• Sept 17 2009 Forex Market Update
• Beta-test for our new online training at 4pm today
• BOE’s Sentance on the newswires
• GBPUSD up on day but not rallies are contained
• Initial Claims come in lower but Continuing Claims rise. Housing Starts as expected.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.17.2009
• SNB rate decision and comment on the CHF sends the USDCHF and EURCHF higher initially
• SNB keeps rates unchanged. Discuss the level of the CHF
• EURUSD makes yet another new high but coming off in NY trade
• USDJPY moves up in early NY trade. The 91.72 level is eyed.
• UK CBI industrial order expectations

EURUSD breaks higher. Back above yesterdays highs at 1.4736. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 07:13 AM PDT The bounce back move higher above all the intraday resistance levels in the EURUSD is another positive move for the pair.  The pair moved to new lows on the day earlier in the NY session, reaching a low of 1.4688 but is not above the high from yesterday at the 1.4736.  Watch this level for support.  Admittedly, the market does seem tired but the relatively shallow, bounce back  corrections, and progressively higher levels leaves the door open for one of those sharp spikes higher.    Be aware.  Markets are indeed tough today.

Philadelphia Fed Index comes in at 14.1 for September Posted: 17 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT  OVERALL INDEX AT 14.1 VS 4.2  NEW ORDERS INDEX 3.3 VS 4.2  PRICES-RECEIVED AT -10.6 VS -1.5  EMPLOYMENT INDEX -14.3 VS -12.9  PRICES-PAID INDEX 14.9 VS 10.0  FUTURE INDEX 47.8 VS 56.8

Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:58 AM PDT This is 2nd of regional indices to come out. The Empire Manufacturing index came out a few days ago and it was better than expectations.  The expectation is for a gain to 8.0 from 4.2 last month. This would be the highest value since June 2007

EURUSD rebounds back toward 1.4719/27 resistance Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:45 AM PDT The 1.4719 level was the December 2008 high level. The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4723 level. The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.4727.  All make for good resistance.  The market should find sellers against this level. A break higher muddies the water.  Intraday support comes in at the 1.4703.    A move below this level should solidify the high.

Sept 17 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD made a new high tioday but has moved back below the 1.4719 level this morning. The level remains a key level for traders this morning. USDJPY has rebounded off lows as has USDCHF (new 2009 lows), but sellers still keeping a lid for now.

Beta-test for our new online training at 4pm today Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:25 AM PDT Our next Beta-test for online training will be at 4pm, Sept 17 2009. We are testing a new series of live trainings where participants are able to ask questions on trading and on the Forex markets. Here is the registration link. Spaces are limited. Please register and shortly after you will get a confirmation email. https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/onstage/g.php?d=558078151&t=a

BOE’s Sentance on the newswires Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:07 AM PDT  BOE WILL NEED TO ASSESS QUANTITATIVE EASING AGAIN IN A FEW MONTHS CHINA MAY BE HELPING ECONOMY MORE THAN EXPECTED  GLOBAL ECONOMY MAY BE TURNING AROUND MORE QUICKLY  DATA HAS BEEN MORE POSITIVE IN PAST MONTHS  CONSTRUCTION SEEING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT  CAR INDUSTRY HAS SEEN LARGE DROP  THERE’S A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT RECOVERY PACE  SEES SIGNS ECONOMY STARTING TO STABILIZE The comment on QE has the market a little uneasy on the downside.  Increase QE is viewed as bearish for the currency.

GBPUSD up on day but not rallies are contained Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:03 AM PDT The GBPUSD closed yesterday at the 1.6486 level. On Tuesday it closed at 1.6485. The low reached 1.6468  in Tokyo trade.  Then a move higher ensued.  The momentum took the pair back above the 200 hour MA and up to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.6558 level but a brief move above the level (high 1.6566) was quickly rejected and the price started its move back to the downside.   The price is now back below the 200 hour MA at the 1.6531 level.  This level in addition to the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.6551 level will be resistance today.  Look for sellers against this level.  On the downside, a move below the closing price over the last few days at 1.6485 area should pressure the pair further.  There is channel support at the 1.6463.  This level should provide some support on the downside - at least initially as the pair continues to consolidate.

Initial Claims come in lower but Continuing Claims rise. Housing Starts as expected. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:38 AM PDT The Housing Starts meanwhile increased to 598K from 589K in July.  Building Permits also rose to 579K from 564K but this was slightly lower than expectations at the 583K level As far as Initial Claims, the number came inat 545K from 557 K last week.  The expectation was for a 557K reading.  The Continuing Claims were much higher suggesting the cumulation of workers out of work are increasing again.  Last week the value was the lowest level since April 3rd.  The market will be watching this in coming weeks to see if the trend back higher continues. Overall, the data is mixed.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.17.2009 Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:37 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro made new 2009 highs as the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.4766.  The pair has since eased back to 1.4720 ahead of Jobless Claims, and Housing Starts. World equity markets rose, and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning.  Speculation that the Housing Starts data this morning will show an increase. Continued positive economic data suggests that the global economy is on the road to recovery.  The road may be long and winding, but it will eventually lead to a healthy global recovery. Oil:$72.08                               Gold:$1018.60 Today’s data: Housing Starts:                    exp:    598K                       prior: 581K         act: 598K Jobless Claims:                    exp:    555K                       prior: 550K         act: 545K Building Permits:                exp:     581K                      prior: 560K          act: 545K Philly Fed:                             exp:      8.0                         prior: 4.2 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

SNB rate decision and comment on the CHF sends the USDCHF and EURCHF higher initially Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:16 AM PDT The mention of the value of the CHF by the SNB in their interest rate decision release has led to a move higher in the USDCHF - initially at least.  The pair moved to test the 100 hour moving average at the 1.0352 level, reaching a high of 1.0357, but fell short of the 1.0368 level which is the low price from December 29, 2008.  This level was broken last Thursday for the first time. The last two days the price has not been able to trade above this key level.  A move above it today, will likely lead to continued short covering buying.    On the downside, the close yesterday was 1.0319 and right below that is additionals support at the 1.0315 level. Watch this level.  A break may be a test by the market to test the SNB resolve to sell the currency (buy USDCHF).  I would be cautious from the short side, in the face of the comment this morning - just out of fear of intervention.   The EURCHF also moved higher on the announcement.  The price moved above the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart and looked to test the midpoint of the recent move lower from the August 10th high to the low reached on September 14th.  The midpoint comes in at the 1.5236 level. The high reached 1.5230.  The price is back down and looks to test support at the 1.5170 where lows from today ant the 50% retracement of the move up from the lows is found. Below that is key support at the 1.5154 to 1.5158 level where the 200 and 100 hour moving averages are located.  I would expect buyers against the level.

SNB keeps rates unchanged. Discuss the level of the CHF Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:06 AM PDT The SNB says they will continue to firmly counter the Franc appreciation.  They will also look to continue to buy bonds if neccesary.  Other comments SEES 2010 INFLATION AT 0.6% VS PREVIOUS 0.4%  SWISS ECONOMY MAY SHRINK 1.5% TO 2.0% IN 2009 CONSUMER PRICES TO DROP 0.5% IN 2009  TO CONTINUE TO SUPPLY ECONOMY WITH AMPLE LIQUIDITY  UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN  IT WILL CONTINUE MONETARY POLICY  SOME ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC SIGNS The comment about the currency has led to a rise in the USDCHF.

EURUSD makes yet another new high but coming off in NY trade Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:59 AM PDT The EURUSD made another move to the highs as Gold moved to new highs.  However, the price started to reverse lower and so did the EURUSD.  The pair has broken back through the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute chart at the 14734 and 1.4725 levels respectively and these levels will be eyed as resistance levels to sell against this morning.  If the price can not get back above these levels, further moves to the downside will likely be explored. The low for the day is the 1.4703 level.  A move below the level will likely look for a move toward the 1.4647 to 1.4652 support level. Below that is key support at the 1.4621 level. If you recall, this level was the 61.8% retracement of the longer term move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low (start of the EURUSD move higher).  This level was resistance on the way higher and should provide some initial support at least on a move down.

USDJPY moves up in early NY trade. The 91.72 level is eyed. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:38 AM PDT NY has come in and bought up USDJPY. The pair is now moving through the 38.2% retracement level at the 91.33 level.    A break of the level will look toward the 200 hour moving average at the 91.57 level (see chart above).  The key upside level remains the 91.71 area which is the midpoint of the move down from the September 7th high to the low yesterday. In addition the low from July came in at the 91.72 level.  This level was broken last Thursday and the price has not been above it since (DAILY chart below).  So look for profit taking selling against the level today, with a break a “go” for a move higher in the pair toward the 92.00-05 next resistance level.  On the downside, there should be some support at the 90.92 area where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (see chart below) . The price used the breaking of this level as a springboard to the upside this NY morning.  I would expect buyers before this level with stops on moves back below the level.  The 90.64 level is additional support today.

UK CBI industrial order expectations Posted: 17 Sep 2009 03:07 AM PDT UK CBI industrial order expectations came in at -48, better than the -49 forecasted. Not much market reaction as Cable continues to trade in a 1.6535-45 range.

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