Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Sept 22 2009 Forex Market Update
- GBPUSD eyeing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6249
- EURUSD finding profit takers/short term bears against the 1.4825
- Canada retails sales much weaker than expected.
- USDJPY testing 100 hour MA as well. Level comes in at 91.33
- GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.6349
- FXDD Beta Test for Online Training, Wednesday Sept 23rd 4pm
- EURUSD makes a new move highs. Support at 1.4766 area now
- Italian Unemployment Rate
- Swiss Trade Balance
- Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts
- USD Weakness Moving Markets Higher
- AUD/USD Tests 200Hr on Kiwi Strength
- NZD Moves Up on Current Account Balance
- Sept 21 2009 Forex Evening Report
| Sept 22 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 22 Sep 2009 07:01 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. New highs in the EURUSD. New lows in the USDCHF. GBPUSD rebounds to key resistance and USDJPY reaches a vortex. |
| GBPUSD eyeing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6249 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 06:59 AM PDT
The last 4 hours has seen a hard test of the 1.6249 level in the GBPUSD. The price has not been able to move above level today and there is additional resistance at the 1.6365. Nevertheless a break above should lead to higher levels in the GBPUSD with the next target at 1.6395 and then 1.6437. |
| EURUSD finding profit takers/short term bears against the 1.4825 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 06:52 AM PDT
The high from last September came in at 1.4825. The high today reached 1.4820. The high on this last move higher took the EURUSD up to the 1.4815 level. Clearly, the market is using the level as a profit taking level or a level to short against. A break above will look to target the next old high at the 1.4866 level. On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4775 level. The 38.2% of the days range remains at 1.4763. These are the support levesl to eye. The EURUSD has been above the 100 bar moving average since 11 AM NY time yesterday. Dips remain fairly shallow today. The momentum to the upside is slowed. However, I still need to see the price dip below the 100 bar MA (and the 1.4766 old high from last week) to confirm a top may be in place. |
| Canada retails sales much weaker than expected. Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:35 AM PDT The Canada Retail Sales came in at -0.6% and the ex Autos came in at -0.8%. Both were much weaker than expected (+0.7% and +0.1% were the expectations). The fall is being attributed to a fall in gasoline sales as prices declined. Gasoline sales were down 3.4%.
The weaker number has led to a surge in the USDCAD to a high of 1.0715 so far. The move pushed the price back above the 100 hour MA at 1.0698 level. This level should provide support now. If the price dips below, it is dollar weakness taking charge again. |
| USDJPY testing 100 hour MA as well. Level comes in at 91.33 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:30 AM PDT
The USDJPY has fallen with the dollar today. The price has tested the 100 hour moving average at the 91.34 level and the 200 hour moving average at the 91.22 level. There is also an old trendline that was broken at the level which comes in at the 91.30 level. Finally, the midpoint of the move up from the low at 90.12 to the high at 92.52 comes in at the 91.32 level. Needless to say we seem to be at the vortex of the USDJPY chart at the 91.22 to 91.34 level in the pair.
On the topside today, look for resistance at the 91.49 level initially where the 100 bar MA and the 38.2% of the days range comes in. Above that is the 91.72 level. This was the July low which was taken out last week and not surpassed until yesterdays correction higher.
On the downside a break of the 91.22 level next targets 91.02 where the 61.8% of the move higher comes in along with low levels from Friday’s trade are found. See chart above. |
| GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.6349 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:12 AM PDT
The GBPUSD is up testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6349 level. The high today reached a level of 1.6349. Above this key level is the 1.6365 price which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 11th high of 1.6741 to the September 21 low of 1.6133. A move above these levels today should solicit additional buying interest that targets the 1.6437 level where prior low from last week and the midpoint of the move down is located (see chart above).
On the downside, watch for support at the 1.6306 to 1.6317 level and below that level is 1.6292 where the 38.2% of the days range is found along with a rising 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The price dipped below the 100 bar MA in the London session, but was not able to fall below the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above). |
| FXDD Beta Test for Online Training, Wednesday Sept 23rd 4pm Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:10 AM PDT
We are doing a Beta-test of our online training this Wednesday, September 23rd at 4pm. Details and class link are as follows. Go to https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/k2/j.php?ED=111557987&UID=1023081057&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D&FM=1 and register. |
| EURUSD makes a new move highs. Support at 1.4766 area now Posted: 22 Sep 2009 04:22 AM PDT
The EURUSD soared to new highs not seen since September 23rd, 2008. The high reached 1.4820. The next historic high came in on September 22nd 2008 at 1.4866. This would be the next target. Overall, the market is simply stepping up and stepping up. The move higher today took out the high from last week at 1.4766. The correction off that high came down to the 1.4611 level which was a 61.8% retracement of the move up the prior week. From there, the upside move was restarted. Longer term the EURUSD has moved up from a low of 1.4191 since September 1st.
For today, look for support against the old high at the 1.4766 level. At the area is also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the lows today. That level comes in at the 1.4763. Below that level is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4757 (see chart above), and moving higher. The price has been above the 5 minute MA since 10:40 yesterday NY morning. On the topside, be on alert for another move above 1.4800. There could be some stops triggered again. Above that resistance at 1.4814 and the 1.4825 level of course. The 1.4866 level becomes the next target level. One characteristic of a trend market up like we are seeing is the consistent visions of lower values. When it does not happen, traders wonder why and sell more. When it does not fall, they wonder why again. Then when a correction comes, like we experienced yesterday, the move lower tends to be shallow. Then the process starts all over again That is what we are seeing in this move up from the 1.4191 low. Be aware. |
| Posted: 22 Sep 2009 01:01 AM PDT Italy’s Unemployment Rate for August was 7.4%; better than its forecast of 7.7% but higher than its previous release of 7.3%. The market shows limited reaction to the release. |
| Posted: 21 Sep 2009 11:19 PM PDT Switzerland’s Trade Balance for August was 1.79B versus it’s prior release of 2.35B. The details of the release are as follows:
The CHF caught a light bid on this release. |
| Posted: 21 Sep 2009 10:55 PM PDT The Swiss Economic Ministry released the following forecasts:
The market had a limited reaction to the release and the CHF trades off session lows. |
| USD Weakness Moving Markets Higher Posted: 21 Sep 2009 07:05 PM PDT Oil, gold, equities and equity futures are all moving higher on USD weakness across the board in a thin market lacking Tokyo’s participation. For the Kiwi in particular we have seen new 2009 highs on the back of better than expected Current Account figures.
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| AUD/USD Tests 200Hr on Kiwi Strength Posted: 21 Sep 2009 04:23 PM PDT The Aussie which has struggled against the USD to start the week, has received a bid early in Asian trading, being dragged up by better than expected economic statistics from New Zealand. The AUD/USD has hit the 200 hr moving average which we will note as resistance in what is a very thin Asian session on a Japanese holiday week. We will watch for Asian equities to lead the markets today.
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| NZD Moves Up on Current Account Balance Posted: 21 Sep 2009 04:14 PM PDT The 2nd quarter Current Account Balance in New Zealand came in much better than expected at +124M versus the estimate of a -1.98B decline. The prior months reading was also revised better. This in conjunction with the Account Deficit to GDP ratio also better than expected (-5.9% vs. -7.4%,) got the Kiwi moving across the board, most notably against the AUD and USD. AUD/NZD has moved to multi-week lows as noted on the chart below and we will look for some support at the late August lows at 1.2120.
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| Sept 21 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 21 Sep 2009 01:25 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Watch the evening report for clues into tonight’s trading. |
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