Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- GBPUSD falls through key support at 1.6317 and does not stop.
- EURUSD tests trendline resistance and falls. Good support at 1.4700 and the 1.4670 area
- Sept 18 2009 Forex Market Update
- GBPUSD holds 1.6317 level and then the 100 bar MA on the bounce. HMMM.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.18.2009
- USDJPYs moving averages converging. Decision time ahead?
- USDCHF tests upside resistance and moves back down overnight
- GBPUSD continues down overnight but finds some support
- EURUSD falls and rebounds. Early NY buys again. Tests 1.4719 level.
- UK Net borrowing & Preliminary M4 money supply
- Eurozone current account
- Sterling trades through last weeks low
- German PPI
- BOJ September monthly report; raises economy assessment
- 9-18 Economic Calendar
| GBPUSD falls through key support at 1.6317 and does not stop. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 07:07 AM PDT
As per a prior post, the 1.6317 level is a key level for me today. The price held the level early on, and bounced up to the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6381 level (high reached 1.6374). The price has since moved back down and has broken through this key level. The 1.6300 level is now being broken. Look for rebounds to find sellers against the 1.6317 level now. |
| EURUSD tests trendline resistance and falls. Good support at 1.4700 and the 1.4670 area Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:54 AM PDT
The market tested the top trendline off the hourly chart at the 1.4735 level (high reached 1.4736) and has moved back down. The 1.4719 level remains a key level (high from December 2008 spike). Below that is the 1.4760 level where the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement support is currently found. Interim support at 1.4701 where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.
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| Sept 18 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT |
| GBPUSD holds 1.6317 level and then the 100 bar MA on the bounce. HMMM. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:00 AM PDT
The GBPUSD corrected down to 1.6317 support level as per the prior post and bounced (low was 1.6318). This raises the level of importance for the price. On the topside the correction moved back up to the 100 bar MA at the 1.6349 level. This also raises the level of importance for this technical level. So the battle lines are drawn. A move above or below the levels should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.18.2009 Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:56 AM PDT
The GBP dropped as the health of Lloyd’s Bank sent concerns thru the financial sector. The GBP stayed low as the UK posted it’s biggest budget deficit since 1993, as tax revenues fell, and jobless benefits costs rose. Equity markets were mostly lower, and metals fell as concerns that the global economies will not grow fast enough to keep up with current prices. Oil:$72.05 Gold:$1015.00 No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAST WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| USDJPYs moving averages converging. Decision time ahead? Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:53 AM PDT
The USDJPY remains in between the “goal posts”. The pair ventured above the 200 hour moving average at one point but lost upside interest. The current 200 hour MA comes 91.34. The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 90.98. When moving averages converge, the market tends to have to make a decision. Does it want to go higher or lower. Also, if moving average hold the ranges like it has for the last 24 hours, a break SHOULD lead to a move in the direction of the break. |
| USDCHF tests upside resistance and moves back down overnight Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:42 AM PDT
Also as outlined in the evening report, the USDCHF had channel support going into the new trading day today. On the upside was the 1.0315 resistance, the 100 hour MA and the top trendline of the channel. The market first tested the 1.0315 level The high reached 1.0317 and backed down to 1.0294. From there the price moved through the level and next tested the 100 hour MA and trendline. The price moved briefly above the trendline, but failed when momentum could not be maintained. When the market does not do what it is supposed to do, get out. This started the move back down and has now broken back through the 1.0315 level. For today, the story remains the same. The price has resistance at 1.0315 and then the 100 hour MA/trendline which are currently at the 1.0333 and 1.0337 levels respectively (blue and red trendline in the chart above). Above that is the all important 1.0368 price which corresponds to the Dec 29 2008 low price (the last low price of signficance prior to the break lower this week). Watch these steps on the topside. On the downside, the 1.0375 level and the channel trendline comes in currently at the 1.0264 level. Look for support against these levels. |
| GBPUSD continues down overnight but finds some support Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:01 AM PDT
In yesterday’s evening commentary (click here to view the report) and during our Live Beta show, we talked to the 5 minute chart on the GBPUSD. The 1.6433 level was a key support level for the pair on the shorter term chart. The level was tested 4 or 5 times over the tradig on the 16th and 17th. When the level was broken in late NY trade and failed to go lower, the eye brow was raised and so did the price. The price rebounded and consolidated. The consolidation allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up to the market in the Tokyo trade (see chart above(. When the price and moving average converged around the 1.6450 area, it was time for the market to make a decision -does the price move back above the moving average, or does it go lower? That decision was to move further to the downside.
The market marched down and bottomed at the 1.6296. On the way the price has moved through the 61.8% retracement of the move higher from the September 2nd low. That level comes in at the 1.6353 level. This is also the current 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. This level should find sellers this morning. If the price is able to move back above, this should indicate further upside potential (1.6380-85 area). On the downside there should be some support this morning at the 1.6317 level. This level was bottom of the range on a closing basis for most of the summer season. Most of the closes during the summer came between 1.6317 and 1.6589. Although the price has been below this level today, the move back above has since found buyers before the level. So watch this level to provide profit taking buying support for the shorts, with stops on a break below. |
| EURUSD falls and rebounds. Early NY buys again. Tests 1.4719 level. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 04:36 AM PDT
The EURUSD fell sharly overnight in a traders market. On the shorter term chart the pair initially moved below the 100 and 200 bar moving average on a 5 minute chart in Tokyo trading and the downside was explored. The price correction took the pair back up to test the key moving averages in the early London sesssion, failed to break higher and moved to the lows for the day at the 1.4647.
The price is now testing the 1.4719 level (hmmm the December 2008 high). This also corresponds with the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. I would expect some resistance at this level after the sharp move down overnight.
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| UK Net borrowing & Preliminary M4 money supply Posted: 18 Sep 2009 01:36 AM PDT UK net borrowing came in at 16.1B, less than the 17.7b expected. Preliminary M4 money supply came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.7% expected. Seemingly weak numbers for the Gbp. At the moment Gbp/Usd is trading at 1.6320, on the low end of a 150 or so pip range. (1.6295-1.6453) |
| Posted: 18 Sep 2009 01:03 AM PDT Eurozone current account came in at 6.6B surplus, stronger than the prior negative reading of -5.3B. Strong number for the euro as we currently trade 10 pips off session lows at 1.4671. |
| Sterling trades through last weeks low Posted: 18 Sep 2009 12:43 AM PDT Gbp/Usd broke below last weeks low of 1.6321. From a daily perspective the next level of support comes in at 1.6240, its 100 day M/A. It has traded down to 1.6297 thus far. Looking at the daily chart it appears we are in the midst of a downtrend which began on September 11. If Gbp/Usd can close below 1.6321 the bearishness in the pair should continue.
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| Posted: 17 Sep 2009 11:03 PM PDT German PPI m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at -6.9%, stronger than the -7.2% expected. Strong numbers for the Euro but by market reaction you wouldn’t know it as Eur/Usd is off about 5 pips since release to 1.4724. |
| BOJ September monthly report; raises economy assessment Posted: 17 Sep 2009 10:35 PM PDT In there monthly report the BOJ raised its assessment of econmoy for first time since July. They see economy showing signs of recovery which is an upgrade from their prior view that the economy has stopped worsening. The Jpy has advanced against Gbp as we now trade at session low of 149.08. Usd/Jpy off about 15 pips to 91.10. |
| Posted: 17 Sep 2009 08:54 PM PDT
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