Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at the 1.4737 level
• Existing Home Sales fell to 5.1M rate
• GBPUSD moves below neckline support at 1.6161
• Sept 24 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY trying to bottom on increased risk appetite
• Initial Claims better than expected
• Jobless claims due at 8:30. Existing Home sales at 10:00
• EURUSD benefits overnight while focus on selling is on the GBPUSD. EURGBP rises
• GBPUSD falls overnight. BOE King comments cited
• German Ifo business climate weaker than expectations
• Sterling tumbles on King’s commnets
• Eur/Usd above 100 hour M/A and 61.8 Fibo
• 9-24 Economic Calendar
• AUD/USD Hits Trendline
• AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4%

EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at the 1.4737 level Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:08 AM PDT Look for sellers now against this level as the dollar finds a safe haven bid off the worse than expected housing data.  Support comes in at 1.4702 where the 200 hour MA is found.

Existing Home Sales fell to 5.1M rate Posted: 24 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT Lower than expected. However, inventories fell to 8.6 months which is better than 9.4 month supply.

GBPUSD moves below neckline support at 1.6161 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved below the neckline trendline in the daily chart at the 1.6161 level and have seen a move to new lows for the day at the 1.6143.  I would expect sellers against the 1.6161 level now with stops on moves probably back above the 1.6170 level.  A close below on the daily should lead to lower levels for the pair. The 1.6112 level is the first target below that 1.6026.  These are the lows from the neckline.  There are some who would measure a move down much lower. However, it is my opinion that more realistic step by step moves is warranted.    However, the bias is to the downside as long as the price can remain below the break level.

Sept 24 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 24 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Morning Commentary looks at the GBPUSD and the break of the Head and Shoulder neckline and MORE

USDJPY trying to bottom on increased risk appetite Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:51 AM PDT The USDJPY sold off sharply overnight, but has bounced off the lows. The move can be partly attributed to an increase in risk appetite which has given some of the Yen crosses a bid.  The pair is also back above trendline support at the 90.49 level.  This level should provide support today.  On the short term chart, the price is flirting with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently. That level comes in at the 90.65 level.  On move above this level, there should be resistance at the 90.83 level (38.2% of the days move down).  Above that, the market  should  look to target 90.95 (200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart).  A move back below 90.49 would not be welcomed.

Initial Claims better than expected Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:36 AM PDT The Inital Claims fell to 530K the lowest level in two months to 530K.  550 was expected.  This is showing a potential stabilization of the labor market.  However, the expectation is that the weekly claims need to fall to 400,000 in order to stabilize unemployment.  Nevertheless, the data is encouraging. The initial reaction has been a decline in the dollar. The EURUSD is up to the 1.4791  (high reached 1.4795).  There should be some resistance at this area.

Jobless claims due at 8:30. Existing Home sales at 10:00 Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:28 AM PDT The weekly Initial Claims are due at 8:30. Expectations are for a slight rise to 550 K from 545 K last week.  The Continuing Claims are expected to fall to 6183K from 6230K last week.  Both series have been improving but employment still remains a drag. At 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales are expected to improve to 5.35 M from 5.24M.

EURUSD benefits overnight while focus on selling is on the GBPUSD. EURGBP rises Posted: 24 Sep 2009 05:06 AM PDT The EURUSD initally fell in todays early trading, falling below key support at the the 100 hour MA and the 50% retracement of the move up from Sept 21. The subsequent fall, however, was buffeted by the 200 hour MA which stopped the decline and started a rebound.  The pair has now moved back above the old 2009 high of 1.4766. There should be some additional upside resistance at the 1.4791 level from old highs and lows and closes..  Above 1.4800 we know the 1.4825 and 1.4866 level, with early sellers in the mid 40’s lining up ahead of the 1.4866 key resistance level.   On the downside, in addtion to support at the 1.4766 level, the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart above) comes in this morning at the 1.4736 level currently.  Below that the market is likely to target the 200 hour once again at the 1.4700 level (green line in chart above). Looking at the 5 minute chart, the bias is to the upside as the price has rebounded above the 100 bar MA.  The current level comes in at the 1.4750 level.  Eyeing this MA and using it as a support level to buy against, is also likely in the early trade today.   The EURUSD has been buoyed by buying in the EURGBP.  This in reaction to the BOE Kings comment on the GBPs value (i.e. weaker GBP would benefit economic rebalancing). The pair has reached the highest level since early April 2009.   The pairs price has also moved above the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the March 2009 high at the 0.9077 level

GBPUSD falls overnight. BOE King comments cited Posted: 24 Sep 2009 04:45 AM PDT The GBPUSD fell in the London trade as BOEs King said that a weaker pound would help rebalance the economy.  This led to a sharp fall in the GBPUSD toward trendline support at the neckline of the head and shoulder formation.  The neckline level comes in at the 1.6161 level. The low overnight reached 1.6168.  The subsequent bounce has taken GBPUSD back up to a high of 1.6220. There is some topside resistance at the 1.6235 level which should cause some initial resistance (see chart). Above that level look for the 38.2% retracement of the days range at the 1.6282 level to slow a move higher. On the downside, the 1.6185 level is likely to provide some support while a break of the 1.6160 neckline level should solicit some selling from longer term traders. Note the close is of importance for the Head and Shoulder formation. So if the pair falls, then bounces back higher above the level, be aware.  The market would not be doing what it is supposed to be doing.

German Ifo business climate weaker than expectations Posted: 24 Sep 2009 01:06 AM PDT German Ifo business climate came in at 91.3, weaker than the 92.0 expected. Current assessment came in at 87.0, weaker than the 87.7 expected. Eur/Usd came off about 15 pips from 1.4760 down to 1.4745. IFO’s Sinn goes on to say 2009 is seen as a catastrophic year with expectations on growth following large declines. Abberger states a sustainable recovery is questionable.

Sterling tumbles on King’s commnets Posted: 24 Sep 2009 12:44 AM PDT BOE’s King states a decline in Gbp will help UK economy rebalance. On this comment Gbp/Usd traded down to 1.6263 and Eur/Gbp up to .9069. cureently Gbp/Usd is trading at 1.6295 and Eur./Gbp at .9057.

Eur/Usd above 100 hour M/A and 61.8 Fibo Posted: 24 Sep 2009 12:08 AM PDT After a failed attempt to break below its 200 hour M/A much earlier on it seems Eur/usd has turned bullish as it closed the last hour of trading above its 100 hour M/A (1.4732) and 61.8% fibo (1.4755). The potential is there for a run above 1.4800, with earlier highs of 1.4844 not out of reach. If it does turn lower 1.4730 area should lend support with 100 hour M/A back in play and 50% fibo at 1.4727.

9-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Sep 2009 09:06 PM PDT

AUD/USD Hits Trendline Posted: 23 Sep 2009 07:49 PM PDT The AUD/USD pair like most risk and commodity pairs took a tumble at the end of the day as commodities such as oil and copper moved lower, in conjunction with equities that couldn’t sustain the limited push higher following the FOMC meeting. Looking at the chart below we see the pair moved abruptly lower after the NY close and found some support at the trendline. Although the pair has rebounded some, it was unable to sustain the bounce it has received from better than prior New Home Sales in Australia or better New Zealand Consumer Confidence. As commodities continue to trade softer, it will be interesting to see if the trendline can support another move down. Liquidity and participation should be improved as Tokyo returns to work, however a break of the trendline could bring the 85 cent handle into play.

AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4% Posted: 23 Sep 2009 06:05 PM PDT AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m came out at 11.4% much higher then prior month of 0.1%. Aud/Usd showing very reaction to the number trading at .8715.

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