Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD moves above 1.4621 but comes off again
• USDJPY moves below the trendline support level again. Watching for momentum.
• University of Michigan Confidence due at 67.5
• Sept 11 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD reaches June 30th high and backs off
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.11.2009
• USDJPY breaks to the downside today. Consolidation phase currently in place.
• EURUSD inches higher again overnight in a narrow range
• UK PPI
• Italian Industrial Production
• German WPI
• Eur/Gbp approaches yesterday’s low
• Japan Household Confidence
• 9-11 Economic Calendar
• Risk and Commodity Pairs Gain Light Bid

EURUSD moves above 1.4621 but comes off again Posted: 11 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT The EURUSD moved up to the trendline resistance level at the 1.4636 on the break of the 1.4621 key resistance level, but has come back off. The market is now back below the 1.4600 level as sellers continue to take profit (and initiate new shorts) at the higher level.

USDJPY moves below the trendline support level again. Watching for momentum. Posted: 11 Sep 2009 06:58 AM PDT The USDJPY is moving below the trendline support level off the lows going back to March.  The level comes in at 92.70 area.  Look for the momentum.  If momentum cannot be developed the market is likely to rebound.  KEY test.

University of Michigan Confidence due at 67.5 Posted: 11 Sep 2009 06:54 AM PDT Michigan Consumer Confidnece due at 9:55 AM. The consensus estimat is for 67.5 versus 65.7 last month. The

Sept 11 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 11 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT FXDD Morning Report looks at the key technical levels for the 4 major currency pairs

GBPUSD reaches June 30th high and backs off Posted: 11 Sep 2009 06:16 AM PDT The GBPUSD squeezed up to the next target level at the 1.6743 level. This level corresponds to the June 30th high price. The high today reached 1.6741.  For a prior discussion on this level see “GBPUSD moves convincingly above the 1.6589 level and surges higher” The price has corrected down to the 1.6656 level, just below the 1.6663 level which was a high price from August 13th.  We will keep this area in mind today.  The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart will also be watched for short term directional clues. Those levels come in at 1.6702 and 1.6684 respectively.  A break of either level should see further momentym in the direction of the break.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.11.2009 Posted: 11 Sep 2009 05:41 AM PDT Good Morning: The EUR/USD hit a new 2009 high overnight of 1.4627.  The pair could not hold onto those highs, and fell back to the 1.45 handle.  Data out of China was positive, but the main question is this growth sustainable going forward. Asian and European equity markets were higher overnight, as data from China helped keep equity markets positive.  US Futures are higher this morning. Oil:$71.61                              Gold:$1002.70 Today’s Data: Import Prices:               exp: 1%        prior: -.7%          act: 2% Whole Inv:                      exp: -1%       prior: -1.7% Uof Mich:                         exp: 67.5    prior: 65.7           HAVE A GREAT DAY, GREAT WEEKEND and GOOD LUCK 9-11-MAY WE NEVER FORGET

USDJPY breaks to the downside today. Consolidation phase currently in place. Posted: 11 Sep 2009 05:02 AM PDT The market quickly moved away from the July 2009 low of 91.72  today after testing the level over the last few days but not being able to keep the downside momentum on breaks. That was not the case today, however.    The market closed at the 91.72 level last night.  The 100 and 200 bar moving averages were converging and going sideways (see green and blue line above).  This is indicative of a non-trending/consolidating market.   Non trends lead to trends and this is what happened.   The price wandered up to the high for the day in the first hour at 91.78 and has spent the rest of the day marching lower - keeping a safe distance from the 100 bar MA (blue line).  The low was reached 90.67 in the mid London morning and has been consolidating since then.  The low corresponds with the trendline off the lows from March and July.  That trendline comes in at 90.70. This is a significant support level and will likely provide good support today.  Watch this level (daily chart below). The high off the correction has taken the pair to 91.08. This level equalled the 38.2% retracement of the days range.  This level will be key on the topside today (see 5 minute chart above).  Interim resistance comes in against the 100 bar MA which is currently at the 91.03 level.  A move above this level will likely move toward the 50% retracement at 91.22, with the confirmation of the upside on a break of the 38.2% retracement level (at 91.09).  Further upside target is the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above). The low has been 90.80/81 on three separate hourly bars in the last 5 or so hours.  A break of this level will likely lead to another test of the days lows and key trendline support.  Look for good buying down here against the key trendline support.

EURUSD inches higher again overnight in a narrow range Posted: 11 Sep 2009 04:50 AM PDT The EURUSD is back up a little as the NY opens.  There was a small, non trend type range in the EURUSD with the low coming in at the 1.4572.  The high extended to the 1.4627 level, just above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low.  That level comes in at 1.4621.  The closing level yesterday came in at the 1.4579.  This level will be eyed today.  The EURUSD has been up for 5 straight days. The last time the market has been up for 5 straight days was from  May 18th to May 22nd when the EURUSD moved from 1.3423 to 1.4050 (627 pips).  The current 5 days up has taken the price from a low of 1.4191 to a high of 1.4616 (425 pips, not counting today) . This move higher started from the midpoint of the 2008 move down at the 1.4183 area.  Using key levels as spring boards helps get the ball rolling on a trend type move (see 50% level in the chart above). So today with the narrow range, the close from yesterday will be our support level as the day starts.  A move below that level is likely to target some trendline support at the 1.4531 currently.  The 100 hour moving average comes 1.4495.  In order for the bullish bias to remain, the price corrections should not fall below the old 2009 highs at the 1.4447.  This is also near the area at the 38.2% retracement at the 1.4460. (see chart above) On the topside, the market is still respecting the 1.4621 level. Today the price was broken slightly but found sellers. A break of the level will start to look toward the high from December 2008.  That high came in at 1.4719.

UK PPI Posted: 11 Sep 2009 01:35 AM PDT UK PPI input m/m came in at 2.2%, stronger than the 0.9% expected. Output m/m came in at 0.2%, slightly weaker than the 0.3% expected. Seemingly the strong input number should have a positive effect on Gbp, but you wouldn’t notice it by the trading activity. Gbp/Usd relatively unchanged at 1.6678 post number.

Italian Industrial Production Posted: 11 Sep 2009 01:04 AM PDT Italian Industrial Production m/m came in at 1.0%, stronger than the 0.4% expected. Eur/Usd continues to trade around 1.4600.

German WPI Posted: 10 Sep 2009 11:11 PM PDT German wholsale price index came in at 0.7%, stronger than the 0.3% and the -0.5% prior reading. This is positive news for the euro as Eur/Usd made a new session high trading up to 1.4627. It is currently trading at 1.4615.

Eur/Gbp approaches yesterday’s low Posted: 10 Sep 2009 11:07 PM PDT Eur/Gbp is in the process of trading down to yesterday’ low of .8728. In recent days that level has been an hourly low 3 times. If the pair can break below this support level it probably should continue lower to the .8700 area. If it does hold a move back up to .8755-60 is likely.

Japan Household Confidence Posted: 10 Sep 2009 10:06 PM PDT Japan Household Confidence came in at 40.1, weaker than the 41.1 expected. Not much market reaction as Usd/Jpy trades 10 pips off low at 91.30.

9-11 Economic Calendar Posted: 10 Sep 2009 08:42 PM PDT

Risk and Commodity Pairs Gain Light Bid Posted: 10 Sep 2009 07:13 PM PDT Risk and commodity pairs received a light bid on better than expected August Industrial Production figures out of China. The bid seems to be short lived as the aforementioned pairs have been slowly trading lower since the NY close. A short-term view of the AUD/JPY pair shows a lot more short-term resistance rather than support, possibly seen at yesterday’s lows at the 78.50 area, which has been an important level for the pair all summer.

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