Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD move higher is impressive. Backing and filling now as high from Friday holds.
• GBPUSD moves through 1.6589 level and tests 38.2% retracement at 1.6604
• Sept 14 2009 Forex Market Update
• Canada Capacity Utilization falls to 67.4 but above expectations
• GBPJPY moves lower overnight but finds support at 149.88
• Bobbys Coerner-Open Market-Sept.14.2009
• EURUSD sells off on the back of protectionist fear/risk aversion
• Eurozone economic data mixed; EU commision cautiously optimistic
• Swiss PPI
• Eur/Usd trading near 100 hour M/A
• Japan final industrial production
• 9-14 Economic Calendar
• London Telegraph’s Liam Halligan Comments on Prior Views from China Related to the Dollar
• Treasury Sec Geithner on the Wire
• New Zealand Retail Sales

EURUSD move higher is impressive. Backing and filling now as high from Friday holds. Posted: 14 Sep 2009 07:09 AM PDT The EURUSDs move higher has taken me by surprise. The price moved above the 1.4600 level with ease and to a high of 1.4632.  This surpassed the resistance at the 1.4621 level but it did stay below the 1.4634 high from last Friday.  The price is now retreating a bit as the inability to get above the high from last week, has led to some profit taking.  Look for support against the 1.4600/1.4608 area (open and high for today before the last break higher) and the 1.4581 level (close from Friday).   If the 1.4600 level can hold the correction, the market may find some springboard momentum to take the price to the next higher level.

GBPUSD moves through 1.6589 level and tests 38.2% retracement at 1.6604 Posted: 14 Sep 2009 06:49 AM PDT The dollar has resumed its move to the downside. In the process, the GBPUSD - which moved below key support at the 1.6589 level - is now back above this level and is testing the upper end of key resistance area at the1.6604 (38.2% retracement).  The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also within this resitance area at the 1.6595 level (green line in the chart above).   The bottom seems in place.  Watch the 1.6589 level. A move above the 1.6604 level will next target 1.6630. Look for some consolidation first.  If the 1.6589 level can hold the downside this may propel the upside move, however.

Sept 14 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 14 Sep 2009 06:35 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A busy start to the week with a number of trading opportunities.

Canada Capacity Utilization falls to 67.4 but above expectations Posted: 14 Sep 2009 05:47 AM PDT The expectation was for a decline for the 2Q to 65.5% but the actual figure came in at 67.4%.   This was the 8th consecutive fall and a record low level (back to 1987).  Transportation makers saw capacity use drop to an anemic 46% from 46.9.  The 2Q of 2008 was at 59%.  Oil and Gas dropped to 76.1 from 78.0%, Construction fell to 71.1 from 73.0 and Mining fell to 50.2% from 56.5%. The USDCAD has moved higher (lower dollar) today as better dollar buying has dominated. The pair has upside resistance against the 61.8% retracement level of the move down from the September 2nd high to the September 8th low.  That level comes in at 1.0937.  The high today reached 1.0924. Look for sellers against this level today. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.0886  which is the midpoint of the move down from the Sept 2nd high to the low.  Below that is the support at the 1.0866 where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located (blue line in the chart above).

GBPJPY moves lower overnight but finds support at 149.88 Posted: 14 Sep 2009 05:34 AM PDT The GBPJPY continued it’s fall started on Thursday.  The price gapped lower after the weekend on risk aversion trade.  Friday’s close came in at the 151.09.  The high today reached 150.84.  The low reached 149.88.  There are three separate tests of this low level today.  The value is the lowest level since September 3rd.  The bottom today had no real significance but with 3 bottom now, has increased in significance on an intraday basis.  On the shorter term 5 minute chart, the price moved back above the 100 and 200 bar MA. The 100 bar MA comes in at the 150.17 level.  The slope of the MA is starting to inch to the upside.  This is somewhat encouraging.  If the price can remain above this MA, the upside should continue.  Look for buyers against the level.  A break is likely to test the triple bottom on this chart at the 149.88 level.  A move below this level, is likely to solicit a move toward the 149.00 low from September 2nd.

Bobbys Coerner-Open Market-Sept.14.2009 Posted: 14 Sep 2009 05:17 AM PDT Good Morning: The EUR/USD traded in the 1.4550 range, mostly unchanged for the day.  GBP in general took another beating as Moody’s stated that their outlook for UK banks remains negative.   A few additional notes from the weekend: Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said “the U.S. has failed to fix then underlining problems of it’s banking  system since the collapse of Lehman Bros a year ago.  China announced that they were looking into “unfair” US trade practices in the auto and poultry markets.  This announcement came 2 days after the US placed restrictions on tires from China. World equity markets fell, and US futures are looking at a lower opening this morning.  Both Oil and Gold are lower also. Oil:$68/85                                      Gold;$999.10  No major data today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD sells off on the back of protectionist fear/risk aversion Posted: 14 Sep 2009 04:54 AM PDT Risk aversion reemerged as the threat of protectionism entered the minds of traders as China balked at US tire tariffs.  Or that is the talk at least.  Last week was a dollar down week and although anything could happen over the weekend, the EURUSD opened higher at 1.4600, reached a high of 1.4608 - just short of the 1.4621 key level from last weeks trade -  and sold off from there. The 1.4621 level represents the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the JULY 2008 high to the OCTOBER 2008 low.   From there the EURUSD started its move lower for the day.  The low took the price below the 100 hour MA for the first time since September 4th when the pair moved above at the 1.4273 level.  The 100 hour MA currently comes in at the 1.4549 level.   The market is currently trading near this level.  The low from Thursday last week came in at 1.4502.  The low for the night reached 1.4515.  Going forward today, the 100 hour moving average should become the directional bias for the pair.  Above the MA, is positive, below is negative.  The current level comes in at 1.4549.  On the topside, the close from Friday was 1.4581.  A move above this level should help confirm the upside - with a move toward what is becoming stronger resistance at levels on this side of the 1.4621 level . On the downside, staying below the 100 hour MA and moving below the 1.4502 level, should confirm further downside momentum that would target 1.4465.  This is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 4th low.  I would not be encouraged with a move back below the 1.4447 level which was the old high price for 2009 before last weeks move higher.

Eurozone economic data mixed; EU commision cautiously optimistic Posted: 14 Sep 2009 02:10 AM PDT Eurozone July industrial production came in at -0.3%, weaker than the -0.2% expected, y/y came in at -15.9%, stronger than the -16.7% expected. Eurozone Q2 employment change q/q came in at -0.5% and y/y -1.8%, no estimates were given. EU commision maintains 2009 Euro area GDP forecast at -4%, 2010 forecast at 0.4%, previously had released -0.1% forecast for 2010. They also maintain 2009 euro area inflation forecast at 0.4%. Eur/Usd took a slight hit on this release as the pair trades down 10 pips to 1.4533.

Swiss PPI Posted: 14 Sep 2009 12:16 AM PDT Swiss PPI m/m came in at 0.1%,  inline with expectations. Usd/Chf continues to trade around 1.0410 and Eur/Chf 1.5130.

Eur/Usd trading near 100 hour M/A Posted: 13 Sep 2009 09:58 PM PDT Eur/Usd is trading right around its 100 hour M/A of 1.4536. Earlier in session it did dip below this level before, trading down to 1.4521, just above the 38.2% Fibo retracement. If the pair breaks below 1.4536 look for more support in the area of 1.4520. If it holds a move back up to 1.4600 is very possible, a level of earlier session highs.

Japan final industrial production Posted: 13 Sep 2009 09:33 PM PDT Japan final industrial production m/m came in at 2.1%, stronger than the 1.9% expected. Y/y came in at -22.7%, better than the -22.9% expected. Usd/Jpy holdong steady at 90.45 in light trading.

9-14 Economic Calendar Posted: 13 Sep 2009 08:31 PM PDT

London Telegraph’s Liam Halligan Comments on Prior Views from China Related to the Dollar Posted: 13 Sep 2009 04:35 PM PDT He notes that Bejing’s Communist hierarchy is so worried about US expansionary monetary policy that it is speaking out, despite the damage that it does to the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves. He believes that China is now more worried about American inflating away its debt than about those debts being exposed to currency risk. The USD faces risk from higher oil prices.

Treasury Sec Geithner on the Wire Posted: 13 Sep 2009 03:56 PM PDT The US Treasury Secretary Geithner commented in a Financial Times interview that reforms after global banking crisis is not sufficient to contain another banking failure from impacting the remainder of the financial system. “We do not have a new international capital accord and stronger resolution authority.”

New Zealand Retail Sales Posted: 13 Sep 2009 03:48 PM PDT New Zealand’s Retail Sales for August were worse than expected and the NZD sold off lightly across the board. This was the first decline for this release since March 2009. The details are as follows: Retail Sales (MoM) - Survey: 0.6%   Actual: -0.5%   Prior: 0.1% Core Retail Sales (MoM) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: -0.5%   Prior: -0.4%

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