Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Conusmer Confidence comes in stronger
• EURUSD watching topside resistance
• August 25 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD tests retracement resistance and comes off. 1.6414 close from yesterday eyed
• Case Schiller comes in better than expected
• EURUSD moves above trendline resistance in early NY trade
• USDCAD tests yesterday’s support area
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.25.2009
• The Peoples Bank of China comments made on their website
• Morning. US Case Schiller, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed and House Price Index due out this morning.
• BBA mortgage approvals (UK)
• Swiss employment level slightly worse than expected
• Eur/Usd breaks lower after much indecisiveness
• German Final GDP inline with forecasts
• 8-25 Economic Calendar

Conusmer Confidence comes in stronger Posted: 25 Aug 2009 07:00 AM PDT The number comes in at 54.1 which is stronger than the 47.9 expectation and the highest since May when it rose to 54.8. The Richmond Fed Index came in at 14 vs 16. The confidence is good news as it shows consumers are not losing the faith.

EURUSD watching topside resistance Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:59 AM PDT Watch the 1.4356 level.  A move higher should lead to further gains.

August 25 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:31 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Watch the morning report for the big picture in the Forex markets today. Talk out of Japan and Chinese markets appear to be steering the day so far. Thanks for all your comments and feedback.

GBPUSD tests retracement resistance and comes off. 1.6414 close from yesterday eyed Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:28 AM PDT The GBPUSD has tested the 38.2% retracement level providing an opportunity for longs to take some profits.  The level comes in at the 1.6447 level.  The high reached 1.6442.  The price has come down off the high but should find support against the close from yesterday at the 1.6414 level.    A move below this level would not be welcomed for the bulls and should lead to further downside pressure toward the 1.6397 level.

Case Schiller comes in better than expected Posted: 25 Aug 2009 06:13 AM PDT The Case Schiller index came in at -15.44 This should benefit the equities this morning.

EURUSD moves above trendline resistance in early NY trade Posted: 25 Aug 2009 05:44 AM PDT The EURUSD fell in early trade in the new day on the back of risk aversion due to falling stocks.  As the markets rebounded, so did the EURUSD. Before then, however, the pair did test the 100 hour MA overnight at 1.4260 (low reached 1.4253 but quickly reversed - see 5 mnute chart below) .  This also aided the move higher from a technical perspective.  Over the last hour or so, the price has broken through a top trendline at the  1.4312 level   This will be key support  with buyers likely against the level.  Other support comes in at the 1.4274 level. This level was the top and bottom on a number of hourly bars over the last 3 or so days. A break of this level should lead to further declines.   The bias does remain to the upside. The high yesterday came in at the 1.4359 and the high Friday came in at the 1.4376 level.  These are the next obvious targets for the pair today as long as the trendline support can hold.  The high for the year is 1.4447.

USDCAD tests yesterday’s support area Posted: 25 Aug 2009 05:15 AM PDT The USDCAD has maintained the 1.0761 support level over the last few days and has moved below this level this morning.  The pair moved below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0775 level this NY morning and a break of the 1.0750 level will likely lead to further downside pressure. The low from yesterday came in at the 1.0724 level. This would be the target area. The low for 2009 came in at the 1.0630 level.  On the upside the price will need to get back above the 1.0761 level and then the 200 bar and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to solicit addtional upside moves.  The 200 bar MA comes in at the 1.0775 level and the 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.0778.  The key level remains the 1.0750 to 1.0761. If the price can hold the support a drift back higher should occur.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.25.2009 Posted: 25 Aug 2009 05:13 AM PDT Good Morning: Comments overnight from Chinese official Wen Jiabao who noted that the “Chinese economy faces many uncertainties, and external demand will likely remain weak for the foreseeable future”.  Shanghai stocks were down 5% at one time-but rebounded to slid 2.6%. Asian equity markets were down-European markets are mixed at this time.  US Futures are higher. The JPY strengthened on the news-and the greenback was little changed. Oil was lower-as is gold this morning. The White House announced that Fed Chairman Bernanke will be renominated for another 4 year term later this morning  by President Obama.  Oil:$74.16                                  Gold:$949.30 Today’s data: Case Shiller Index:              exp:                    prior: 139.84 Consumer Conf:                   exp: 47.6          prior: 46.6 Richmond Fed:                    exp: 16.0          prior: 14.0 House price Index:            exp: .4%            prior: .9% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The Peoples Bank of China comments made on their website Posted: 25 Aug 2009 05:08 AM PDT Reiterates to continue “appropriately loose monetary policy” and ensure reasonable liquidity for banks.  They warn that excessive monetary developments could cause inflationary pressure They further comment that they look to promote yuan currency exchange rate reform and to keep the Yuan at reasonable and balanced level.  Furthermore, they say they will continue to promote appropriate growth in lending. They also look to keep interest rates more market oriented.  Going forward they see downward pressure on prices easing in the 2nd half of 2009.  In  2009 they see fixed investment growth to exceed 2008 levels.  The investment growth is expected to put upward pressure on prices of capital goods. Analysis:  The PBoC continue to see the need for stimulus however, the inflation fear due to expansion (i.e. investment) may need to be addressed down the road.  Overnight the Shanghai index was down -5.5% at one point as rumors of banks increasing capital requirements hurt equities. These rumors were eased later and the stocks rebounded.  The index still ended down -2.59%.   The UK FTSE  and Euro bourses are mainly unchanged this morning.  Gold is up $6. Spot oil is unchanged.  The Dow futures are up 40 points.   President Obama is expected to reappoint Bernanke this AM.   To make a change now would probably not be in the best interest of the continuity of the plans already enacted and the unwinding that needs to be eventually orchestrated.

Morning. US Case Schiller, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed and House Price Index due out this morning. Posted: 25 Aug 2009 04:54 AM PDT Case Schiller 20 largest markets YoY -16.4% vs -17.06% last month.  This is due at 9:00 AM and has been recovering as prices seem to stabilize.  Supply/foreclosures remain a problem as too many homeowners are upside down and jobs continue to remain weak.  The Case Schiller Home price index came in at 139.84 last month. US Consumer Confidence (10 AM) is expected to rise to 47.9 from 46.6 in July.  It will be curious to see how Consumer Confidence moves along. The declines are steadying  at a lower pace but will the consumer continue to feel better or has their expectations been permanently damaged due to so much uncertainty. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index (10 AM) comes on the heals on better Empire and Philadephia Fed Indices over the last week or so.  The expectation for the index is for a gain to 16 from 14 in July.  This would be the 4th straight month with the index above the 0 level.  The manufacturing has been boosted by a lower dollar (makes exports more competitive abroad) and the need to replenish inventories.  Stimulus measures like Cash for Clunkers also provide stimulus effects for a multitude of businesses as the auto industry gets a boost. Finally, at 10 AM we will also get the House Price index for the 2q and for June.  This index show the change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The data is a bit dated as it is only for June and the 2Q.  There are also a multitude of more timely house data. ;

BBA mortgage approvals (UK) Posted: 25 Aug 2009 01:33 AM PDT BBA mortgage approvals came in at 38,200, better than the 37,800 expected and the 35,600 prior reading. No market reaction to number as Gbp/Usd holds at 1.6370.

Swiss employment level slightly worse than expected Posted: 25 Aug 2009 12:18 AM PDT Swiss Q2 final employment level came in at 3.95M, less than the 3.96M expected. Y/y came in at -0.4%, worse than the -0.1% expected. Usd/Chf currently trading close to session highs at 1.0635.

Eur/Usd breaks lower after much indecisiveness Posted: 25 Aug 2009 12:06 AM PDT Eur/Usd has broken below a trendline of recent hourly lows and is testing its 100 hour M/A of 1.4259 If the pair can remain below this trendline (1.4274) there is a chance it can break below the 100 hour M/A. If so the next support level is 1.4220, its 200 hour M/A.

German Final GDP inline with forecasts Posted: 24 Aug 2009 11:04 PM PDT German final GDP q/q came in at 0.3% and y/y came in at -5.9%, both inline with forecasts. Initial reaction to Eur/Usd has been a slight sell off down to 1.4279.

8-25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Aug 2009 08:35 PM PDT

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610