Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• August 24 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD stays within a channel today.. Activity is quiet
• Canada Retail Sales much better than expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-AUg.24.2009
• USDJPY keeps using the 200 day MA above, but can not maintain the upside momentum .
• Good to meet you all at the SF Money Show
• Eurozone Industrial Orders stronger than expected
• Usd/Jpy continues its uptrend
• 8-24 Economic Calendar
• AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales
• US Comments From Jackson Hole Symposium
• ECB Comments From Jackson Hole Symposium
• Yen Opens Weaker
• Japanese Weekend News Update

August 24 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 24 Aug 2009 07:03 AM PDT New Video Now Pending

EURUSD stays within a channel today.. Activity is quiet Posted: 24 Aug 2009 06:36 AM PDT The EURUSD drifted lower initially today but found support against trendline support at the 1.4284 level.  The low reached 1.4280 but the price moved higher off the level and started to use the trendline as a level to buy against. The current trendline point comes in at the 1.4300 level and I would expect buyers to lean against this level on dips.  An additional level to watch today is the 1.4328-35 price.  This was the earlier lows for the day and the close from Friday.  There seems to be some apprehension above this level.  The high extended to 1.4344 but there was not much momentum on the move higher.    So with the quiet market, look for sellers above with buying interest above 1.4335, and support against the downside trendline support currently at the 1.4300.    Look for momentum on any breaks above or below these levels to confirm the directional bias move.

Canada Retail Sales much better than expected Posted: 24 Aug 2009 05:32 AM PDT They rise by 1.0% vs _0.2% expectation. The Ex Autos also comes in stronger at +1.0% vs +0.4%. This should benefit the CAD$ - lead to a lower USDCAD. The pair just moved below some “remembered lows from August 7th at the 1.0755 level.  Watch this level as well as the low from Friday at the 1.0761.  If the price can hold below these levels the bias will remain to the downside for the pair.  A move back above has resistance at 1.0778 (prior low for the day) with better resistance at the 1.0818 level.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-AUg.24.2009 Posted: 24 Aug 2009 05:22 AM PDT Good Morning: A fairly quiet night in the forex markets.  EuroZone Industrial new orders rose , but they are still 25% below last years orders.   No major data on the calender in North America except for Canadian retail sales.  No US data. Worldwide equity markets rose, as did metals.  Comments from  Trichet and Bernanke at the annual central bankers symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, stating that the world economy is pulling out of recession helped lift markets and added a level of confidence to the marketplace. Oil;$74.02                          Gold;$958.10  No Major Data today HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY keeps using the 200 day MA above, but can not maintain the upside momentum . Posted: 24 Aug 2009 05:00 AM PDT The 94.96 level is the 200 day MA for the USDJPY.  The price moved above the moving average this morning to a high of 95.05 but the move above was reversed back to the downside.  The inability to move above this MA keeps the longer term bias to the downside for the pair.  On the shorter term charts, the market was able to break above the 100 hour MA on Friday for the first time since August 11th.  The price on Friday closed at 94.31, just under the 100 hour MA at 94.33.  Today the low has been 94.28 which came in the first hour of trading and since then the price moved steadily higher.  The price moved above the 200 hour MA (currently at 94.78), but because of the 200 day MA resistance at hte 94.96 level today, the upside was maintained.  Finally, an attempt to break to the upside was made, but found no buyers.  As a result, the price started its move back lower and has moved back below the 200 hour MA again.  Now the price is below the 200 hour MA at the 94.78 level.  We will use that level as initial intraday resistance this morning. The 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart is also at that area (94.82 currently - see 5 minute chart below) ). If the price can stay below this level further downside pressure should ensue.  Below is support against the 100 hour MA at the 94.34 level.   I would expect buyers against the level with stops below - at least initially. A move above the 94.78 /82 level will likely solicit additional buying and a test of the 200 day MA once again. The more times the market knocks on the level, the better chance for a move to the upside, but for the time being, the bias remains to the downside.

Good to meet you all at the SF Money Show Posted: 24 Aug 2009 04:32 AM PDT Let me thank all who attended the FXDD SF MoneyShow seminars and visited us at our booth.   We will be getting the PowerPoint presentation to you shortly.   If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email at greg@fxdd.com or put a Comment on the blog at any time of course.  Thanks again. Greg Michalowski

Eurozone Industrial Orders stronger than expected Posted: 24 Aug 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone industrial orders m/m came in at  3.1% , stronger than the 1.8% expected. Y/y came in at  -25.1% , stronger than the -28.3% expected. Eur/Usd got small lift up to 1.4305 after release and has now paired back to 1.4295.

Usd/Jpy continues its uptrend Posted: 23 Aug 2009 11:27 PM PDT Usd/Jpy has been on a steady uptrend since breaking above its 100 hour M/A of 94.35. It has seen some resistance at 94.80 which is its 200 hour M/A, not yet holding above this pivotal number. If it can break above you should see slight resistance at 95.00 and then more at 95.28, previous hourly high on Aug 18th. A failed break may bring the pair back down to 94.35.

8-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Aug 2009 08:22 PM PDT

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales Posted: 23 Aug 2009 06:37 PM PDT Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales came out worse than the prior reading, as follows:  New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) - Actual: -6.9%   Prior: 5.7% New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) - Actual: -10.4%   Prior: -7.3% The AUD has started the trading week gaining strength across the board, particularly against the JPY. The market has had no reaction to the previously mentioned data.

US Comments From Jackson Hole Symposium Posted: 23 Aug 2009 04:32 PM PDT FED’s Kohn: believes that there is no inconsistency between the Fed’s pledge for maintaining low rates for an “extended period” of time and keeping inflation low. Low rates are aimed towards preventing deflation, not raising inflation expectations. He also notes the Fed has the ability to affect asset prices with policy actions. Problems lie in the flight to safety and liquidity, even at less concerning levels. FED’s Bullard: expects positive US growth in the second half of 2009. Expects TALF program to halt if everything goes well by the end of the first half of 2010. Must avoid Japan’s style inflation. Asset Backed Security purchases stemming from monetary expansion has spurred deflationary pressures. Fed can pay interest on reserves to keep inflation under control. He does not see “double dip” in US recession. Sees slow US recovery due to sluggish household spending and the excessive recovery period needed for financial sector.

ECB Comments From Jackson Hole Symposium Posted: 23 Aug 2009 04:08 PM PDT ECB’s Stark: “There is a risk that rates remain too low for too long a period of time”. He believes that firmly anchoring inflation expectations has been “a big achievement”. ECB’s Trichet: sees signs that the economy is emerging from “free fall”, but he believes that they can not rule out a “very bumpy road ahead of us”. ECB will unwind its emergency policy actions quickly once the economy improves. He has no doubt that the ECB would keep prices stable, even during the economic crisis. “The ECB has acquired a reputation for moving interest rates in a steady and persistent fashion over time. This is a conscious choice”. ECB’s Liikanen: ECB does not need to reassess its monetary policy stance. Says the “freefall is over, but we must remember the level of economic activity is still below what it was a year ago”. He still expects unemployment to continue to rise and for uncertainty to remain in the economic outlook. ECB’s Nowotny: recent data have been positive, but may not be sustainable; “don’t see any need for immediate reactions” from the ECB. Expects Euro-Zone economic expansion in 2010.

Yen Opens Weaker Posted: 23 Aug 2009 03:44 PM PDT The Yen opened the week in the far east with same momentum to the downside with which it ended last week as Gold and US equity futures regain their bid. The EUR/JPY pair broke last weeks highs from Friday and went through the 4-100hr moving average and has just traded off the 61.8% retracement which we will look to provide some resistance.

Japanese Weekend News Update Posted: 23 Aug 2009 03:10 PM PDT According to the Kyodo poll, Japan’s opposition the DPJ party, is expected to win next weekend’s general elections in Japan by a substantial margin. Projections forecast the DPJ winning over 300 of the 480 seats in lower house elections. BOJ’s Shirakawa stated that monetary policy alone cannot prevent bubbles and that central banks must coordinate more.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610