Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD moving above the 1.6605 ceiling level
• Existing Homes sales come out better then expected
• USDJPY remains pressured as the dollar remains pressured pre Bernanke speach at 10 AM
• GBPUSD stays below key resistance at 1.6589 10 1.6605…for now
• August 21 2009 Morning Forex Report
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.21.2009
• Eurozone PMI
• German PMI stronger than expected
• Gbp/Usd below 100 hour M/A
• 8-21 Economic Calendar
• EUR/USD Fading into the Weekend?
• JPY Making a Push
• China News Update
• US News Update from Jackson Hole Wyoming
• NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m

GBPUSD moving above the 1.6605 ceiling level Posted: 21 Aug 2009 07:05 AM PDT The GBPUSD is breaking through the resistance at the 1.6605 level and moving higher.  The 1.6605 level should now provide support for the pair.

Existing Homes sales come out better then expected Posted: 21 Aug 2009 07:01 AM PDT Existing Home sales come out at 5.24 million vs expection of 5.0 Million annualized rate. The month supply 9.4 months.  Still sticky.  Median price down 15% YoY. The dollar has moved up against the USDJPY. The pair is running against resistance at the 200 bar MA and 100 bar MA at hte 93.76 to 93.84 area.  A break above should solicit additional short covering but look for seller initially.

USDJPY remains pressured as the dollar remains pressured pre Bernanke speach at 10 AM Posted: 21 Aug 2009 06:47 AM PDT The USDJPY has maintained its bearish bias as the dollar remains pressured overall. The market seems a bit worried about the Fed’s exit strategy plan. Chairman Bernanke speaks later this morning at the Economic Summit in Wyoming today (at 10AM) and it seems the market is looking for details of an exit strategy.  I am not sure he knows thefull specific  plan yet.  Sure he can speak about cutting back on the quantitative measures and the widening down of the bond purchases (they already indicated that the 300 billion bond purchase would wind down in October). However, rate changes are a different story.  Also the unknown of the unwinding of bond purchases is also a slippery slope.  Will rates go up as a result?  What does that do to the economy?  Is the economy healthy enough or is the recovery just an inventory thing?  All of which creates uncertainty and that should continue to hurt the dollar as uncertainty prevails.  From a technical perspective, the USDJPY has been using the 100 hour MA as resistance level since August 13th.  The move since that time has taken the pair down from around 96.50 to the low today of 93.42.  The pair today tested the 1moving average comes in today tat hte 94.34 level currently and this level will need to be breached to ease some of the bearish bias.  On the shorter term 5 minute chart the price just printed  a new low of 93.42, moving below the prior low at 93.47.  The move lower should have solicited further declines. Howevr, the price has moved back above the 93.47 level.  This could be a clue a short term bottom is in place.  A move back toward intraday resistance at the 93.76 level currently (blue line in chart above) can not be ruled out.  A break of the low, should lead to lower levels for the pair.

GBPUSD stays below key resistance at 1.6589 10 1.6605…for now Posted: 21 Aug 2009 06:13 AM PDT The GBPUSD has been able to stay below the resistance ceiling against the 1.6589 to 1.6605 area after an initial sell off overnight.   The high reached so far has taken the pair to t he 1.6580 level.  A break of the key area - starting with the 1.6589 level - should lead to further gains for the pair as dollar selling continues to take hold.  The pair was largely contained by resistance at the 1.6525 are yesterday.  The failure to move higher initially led to a sharp decline  in the pair in early trade today.  However as stocks bottomed and economic data in the EUROZONE came out better than expected the GBPUSD joined the upside move.  The market used the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart as a spring board toward the key resistance at the 1.6525 level  Once that level was broken, the pair had another surge to the highs for the day.   The stalling at the highs is not surprising.   Look for support intraday against the 1.6517- 1.6525 level.  A break of this level will not be welcomed and should lead to further selling pressure.  The upside has the aforementioned hurdles to get through.  If they are breached the next upside target would be 1.6631

August 21 2009 Morning Forex Report Posted: 21 Aug 2009 05:40 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.21.2009 Posted: 21 Aug 2009 05:15 AM PDT Good Morning: Better than expected service data from Germany along with increased manufacturing data from France fueled the Euro in overnight trading. Positive data reinforces speculation that the global meltdown is easing. News overnight that China will be instituting tighter bank lending practices left the Asian session mixed.  The positive news from the EuroZone has added to the Euro and pushed equities higher. US Futures are also higher this morning.  Metals and oil are also higher. Oil:$73.94                                  Gold:$944.50Today’s data: Existing Home Sales:               exp: 4.99M            prior: 4.89M   HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Eurozone PMI Posted: 21 Aug 2009 01:03 AM PDT Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 47.9, stronger than the 47.8 expected. Services PMI came in at 49.5, stronger than the 46.6 expected. Good numbers for euro at face value though I think the release of the French and German PMI’s earlier in the session has stolen the thunder of these results with Eur/Usd trading close to highs upon release.

German PMI stronger than expected Posted: 21 Aug 2009 12:31 AM PDT German manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, better than the 47.1 projected. German services PMI came in at 54.1, better than the 48.8 projected. Good numbers for Euro as Eur/Usd makes new highs breaching 1.4270.

Gbp/Usd below 100 hour M/A Posted: 20 Aug 2009 09:17 PM PDT Gbp/Usd is now trading below its 100 hour M/A of 1.6455. Next level of support is 1.6430 which is a remembered level of support/resistance in recent weeks of trading. If it breaks below 1.6430 sterling can tumble down to 1.6375-80 level, which is area of recent lows.

8-21 Economic Calendar Posted: 20 Aug 2009 08:29 PM PDT

EUR/USD Fading into the Weekend? Posted: 20 Aug 2009 06:36 PM PDT With an empty news calendar in Asia and an extremely light calendar in NY tomorrow the Euro has a lot of room to the downside, not withstanding any large orders which helped drive the currency higher a few NY mornings ago. The first support level on the horizon looks to be the 50% retracement level of the short-term move, which should coincide with the 200 hr moving average in the very near term.

JPY Making a Push Posted: 20 Aug 2009 06:13 PM PDT The Yen has caught a bid to open trading in the far east as yields on treasuries fall and equities trade lower. On a short-term perspective of the EUR/JPY we see the pair approaching the 100 hr moving average as it broke the trendline. A break here could lead us toward the lower end of the 132 handle.

China News Update Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:53 PM PDT Former PBoC member and economist Yu Yongding says that the  Bank of China should try to reduce its level of intervention on the exchange rate as much as possible.  Eventually the Yuan should be demanded as a reserve currency, but they are far away from this stage.

US News Update from Jackson Hole Wyoming Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:47 PM PDT The University of Harvard’s Feldstein commented during a CNBC interview that it would be a mistake for the Fed to raise rates at now with unemployment expected to continue to rise and disposable personal income falling. Former Fed Governor Mishkin commented that he feels strongly that Bernanke needs to be reappointed. Fed’s Hoeing commented that the Fed has addressed much of the crisis, but the focus now falls on how to proceed forward in removing the stimulus at the right time. He added that the mood at this year’s Jackson Hole conference is the worst is behind us.

NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m Posted: 20 Aug 2009 03:47 PM PDT The New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (MoM) came out at 3.9%; much better than its prior release of -3.8%. The market had little to no reaction to this number as the Kiwi trades off session highs against the USD and is currently trading at .6771.

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