Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCAD moves closer to target resistance
- EURJPY tests support and holds so far. Watching closely
- August 11 2009 Forex Market Update
- US Non Farm Productivity rises more than expected
- Canada Housing Starts come out weaker than expected
- Canada July Housing Starts are due at 8:15 AM. US Non Farm Productivity due at 8:30
- USDJPY below 100 day MA but holding the old channel support line
- GBPUSD moves higher in early NY trade
- UK trade balance & DCLG HPI
- BOJ Shirakawa on the wires
- German final CPI & WPI
- Japan July Household Confidence
- Eur/Jpy on downturn, support not far off
- 8-11 Economic Calendar
- BOJ have left rates unchanged
| USDCAD moves closer to target resistance Posted: 11 Aug 2009 06:37 AM PDT
The 1.1048 target level is approaching as the USDCAD did in fact break the prior highs for the day at the 1.0972 and prompted the squeeze toward the retracement upside target (SEE PRIOR POST REGARDING THIS TARGET LEVEL and THIS Post). The high reached 1.1031. We are likely seeing some profit taking as the key level approaches. Oil is below $70 per barrel helping to contribute to the upside move. I would expect that upside momentum should slow as the 1.1048 level is approached with a break above signaling a move toward the next target at the 1.1176 level (50% of the recent move lower). Corrections should find support against the 1.0972-80 level now. |
| EURJPY tests support and holds so far. Watching closely Posted: 11 Aug 2009 06:28 AM PDT
The EURJPY is testing a few highs and lows from the past at the 135.98 level. Watch this level I would expect to see buyers against the level with stops on a break below. |
| August 11 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 11 Aug 2009 06:26 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. We are in a quiet period in the markets today. Perfect time to watch the Forex market update and get ready to trade. Thanks for all your comments and feedback. |
| US Non Farm Productivity rises more than expected Posted: 11 Aug 2009 05:38 AM PDT
Unit labor cost fell by 5.8% for the quarter which is the lowest level since the 2nd quarter 2000. This helped contribute to Non Farm Productivity rising by 6.4%, the highest level since September 2003. The increase is good for profits but not necessarily great for the economy as workers are being displaced and those with jobs are asked to work harder. The good news may be that if demand does increase, it could lead to the need to add workers again. |
| Canada Housing Starts come out weaker than expected Posted: 11 Aug 2009 05:18 AM PDT Rate for July comes in at the 132.1K vs expectation of 145.0K and vs a revised 137.8K in June. Single family starts fell by -1.1% while multi family housing fell by -9.0%.
The USDCAD has been able to surpass the July 29th high of 1.0932 overnight. This level should provide support for the USDCAD today. The close yesterday came in at 1.0888. This level will also be watched on the downside. The weaker dollar today may keep a lid on the USDCAD. The high today at 1.0972 will need to be breached to extend the upside. I expect some profit taking selling up at the current levels, with stops above the highs for the day.
The pair has been up for 5 of the last 6 days (counting today) as some signs of weakness have surfaced. The target on the upside remains the 1.1048 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the most recent move down from July 8th high.
|
| Canada July Housing Starts are due at 8:15 AM. US Non Farm Productivity due at 8:30 Posted: 11 Aug 2009 05:12 AM PDT Canada July Housing Starts are due at 8:15 AM. The expectation is for a rise to 145,oo0 vs. 140.7 last month. This would be the highest level since March. US will release Non Farm Productivity for the 2Q. The expectation is for a rise to 5.5%. With employment being shed, some companies are forced to be more productive in their jobs. This would be the highest level since September 2007 when productivity rose by 7%. The better stock earning this quarter are a reflection of lower costs due to cutting workers and raising productivity. |
| USDJPY below 100 day MA but holding the old channel support line Posted: 11 Aug 2009 05:00 AM PDT
The USDJPY has moved below the 100 day MA at the 95.65 level but has remained above the old channel trendline at the 96.32 level. With the price currently in between the last level of support (at 95.32) and daily moving average resistance (at 95.65) a trade to buy against a stop below the trendline is a possibility for market players. A break above the 100 day MA at 95.65 would give a upside confirmation. It is disappointing the momentum to the upside could not be maintained post the move up over the 100 day MA on Friday. Last night the BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.1% as expected. The bank acknowledged that the economy has stopped worsening, however, the central bank remains concerned about the "downside risks to economic activity and prices". Japan injected $262 billion of stimulus to help the economy weather the worst of times. Next week the GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released and it is expected to rise by 3.9% on an annualized basis after 4 quarters of declines. |
| GBPUSD moves higher in early NY trade Posted: 11 Aug 2009 04:42 AM PDT The GBPUSD has made a move to the upside as NY enters the market. Overnight the UK Deficit widened by more than expecting as the strength of the pound makes exports more expensive abroad. The pound is down versus this time last year but is up since bottoming in December. Exports to nations outside the EU fell 2.6% but exports to EU countries increased by 4.8%.
From a technical basis, the GBPUSD had a low overnight of 1.6430 which is the same low from yesterday. The inability to take out the low, has led to the short covering seen in the early trade today. The high today so far reached 1.6521. This is the next hurdle for the pair today. There is old trendline resistance at the 1.6544 level. I would expect that sellers do emerge at the higher levels. However a period of consolidation/non trend can not be ruled out. Support comes in below at 1.6473-76 for the start. If the price is able to move back above the “old trendline” the 1.6589 level (high closing price for 2009 prior to the move up to new highs on July 31st) should solicit selling interest at the level. |
| Posted: 11 Aug 2009 01:36 AM PDT UK trade balance came in at -65B , worse than the -6.3B expected. DCLG HPI came in -10.7, better than the -12.0 expected. Mixed data from the UK with not much market reaction. Gbp/Usd trading at 1.6473. |
| Posted: 11 Aug 2009 12:30 AM PDT BOJ Shirakawa sees no risk of deflationary spiral in Japan, but it will take time for decline in prices to end. Economic recovery is unlikely in his view. Overall bad news for JPY as Usd/Jpy trading 10 pips higher at 96.85 and Eur/Jpy also markedly higher at 137.30. |
| Posted: 10 Aug 2009 11:28 PM PDT German final CPI m/m came in at 0.0%, better than the -0.1% forecasted. German WPI m/m came in at -0.5%, worse than the 0.1% expected. Inially Eur/Usd was sold down to 1.4131 on news, since it has rebounded and currently trading at 1.4150. |
| Japan July Household Confidence Posted: 10 Aug 2009 10:02 PM PDT Japan Household Confidence came in at 39.4, better than the 39.2 expected and 37.6 prior reading. Usd/Jpy off about 5 pips since release , trading at 96.64. |
| Eur/Jpy on downturn, support not far off Posted: 10 Aug 2009 09:52 PM PDT Eur/Jpy since trading below 100 hour M/A seems to be on a downward trend. Support for the pair is not far off. Its 200 hour M/A lies at 136.37 . Below that is a trendline signifying an old hourly high back on July 27th. Since the break above this line on Aug. 3rd the pair has remained above this trendline.
|
| Posted: 10 Aug 2009 08:59 PM PDT
|
| Posted: 10 Aug 2009 08:00 PM PDT The Bank of Japan has released the following statements:
|
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment