Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• August 20, 2009 Morning Forex Commentary
• EURCHF back at the 100 day MA. Better data out of Switzerland may keep pressure on the pair.
• EURJPY tested 38.2% retracement. Breaking 100 hour MA in the NY morning
• USDJPY falls on the data. Watch 94.00 resistance intraday
• Initial and Continuing Claims show employment weakness still
• EURUSD is in the midst of a non trending today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.20.2009
• GBPUSD tests our resistance area and comes down to support
• US Weekly Initial/Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index due out today
• Sterling approaches 100 hour M/A
• Swiss ZEW survey
• Gbp Retail Sales m/m came in at as expected at 0.4%
• Swiss trade balance
• Sterling trading above 200 hour M/A
• 8-20 Economic Calendar

August 20, 2009 Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 20 Aug 2009 06:44 AM PDT Video Pending

EURCHF back at the 100 day MA. Better data out of Switzerland may keep pressure on the pair. Posted: 20 Aug 2009 06:09 AM PDT The EURCHF is hanging around the 100 day MA at th 1.5167 level.    Yesterday, the price moved below the MA for the first time since June 24th. The break took the pair down to test the 200 day MA at the 1.5132 level (low came in at the 1.5134 level).  However, the price did rebound from the break.  The SNB has recently said they are comfortable with the EURCHF between 1.50 and 1.53.  Today, Switzerland did have better economic data. The Swiss Trade Balance  showed that exports rose (+4.1%) and the Swiss ZEW Index of investor confidence rose to a 3 year high.  This helps to confirm the worst may be over.  It may also pressure the EURCHF and test the central banks stated lower band. Watch the 100 day MA today.  A break could lead to some further selling and another test of the 200 day MA.

EURJPY tested 38.2% retracement. Breaking 100 hour MA in the NY morning Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:52 AM PDT The EURJPY tested the 38.2% level overnight at the 134.66 level (high 134.62).  Profit takers kept the price under the level and the Initial Claims helped push the pair below the 100 hour MA at the 133.83 level (blue line in the chart above) .  The price is currently testing that level currently.  A successful test  and move back lower, should pave the way for further declines toward the low from yesterday.  If the price can move back higher, an upside drift might ensue as the wait for the stocks to open is the next event for possible clues to direction.

USDJPY falls on the data. Watch 94.00 resistance intraday Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:37 AM PDT The USDPY continued it fall after the Initial Claims data. The pair stayed above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart for most of the day, but started to drift lower in the late London morning hours.  The price first moved below the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart above) and then after testing the 200 bar MA, fell below that level as well (green line).  Now the pair is back down toward some support at the 93.84 price (last low before moving higher yesterday). Below that level is support at the lows from yesterday at 93.66 (double bottom). Watch corrective resistance against the 94.00 level which is the 61.8% resistance level of move higher yesterday and today (broken on the data today).

Initial and Continuing Claims show employment weakness still Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:31 AM PDT Initial Claims 576K worse than expected Continuing Claims also rise more than expected to 6241 from 6239 but higher than the estimate of 6215K.  The numbers are not good for stocks and could lead to some selling of the risk trades.  Watch support levels in the EURUSD and the GBPUSD.

EURUSD is in the midst of a non trending today Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:18 AM PDT The EURUSD is non trending today.  The low has been defined by a floor at the 1.4207 area.  The upside has some progressively lower highs that have formed a trendline which currently comes in at the 1.4244 level.  A break of the trendline will continue to have resistance up at the 1.4266 level but this would be the target area.  A break below would look toward support at the 1.4175 to 1.4183 area.  The 1.4183 level is the midpoint of the 2008 high to low range.    Quiet market for the pair, but let the price action dictate the next directional move.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.20.2009 Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:16 AM PDT Good Morning: A fairly quiet night in the FX world- GBP was the pair that generated the most movement.  UK retail sales were positive, but other monetary policy reflected deeper issues.  The UK is on track to have the 2nd highest budget deficit in the G-20.  Only the US will have a larger budget deficit.  Budget deficits are expected to grow-as worldwide government stimulus programs continue. World equity markets rose overnight as China’s markets rebounded.  Speculation that the drop in China’s equity markets was overdone-as China continues to have earnings and economic growth. US Futures are higher, metals and oil also rallied overnight. Oil:$72.25                                       Gold:$943.60  Today’s Data: Jobless Claims:               exp: 550K                prior: 558K Lead Ind:                           exp:   .7%                 prior: .7% Philly Fed:                         exp: -2.0                  prior:-7.5 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD tests our resistance area and comes down to support Posted: 20 Aug 2009 05:11 AM PDT The nights high last night reached 1.6604.  The level was the top extreme of our 1.6589 to 1.6605 resistance area.  The high occured as the economic data was being released. Although the MoM Retail Sales data came out as expected, the UK Budget deficit was larger than expected at 8 billion pounds. Typically in July there is an improvement due to tax receipts. Not this year.  So the GBPUSD sold off and has been testing the 100 hour MA.  That level comes in at the 1.6464 level and will need to be broken on the downside to confirm the direction (and stay below).  On the upside, I would expect sellers against the 200 hour MA at the 1.6493 level and against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6525 area (blue line in the 5 minute chart above).    The close yesterday was 1.6527 and there is a number of lows and highs today at that area (”remembered” prices that the mkt will watch).  It may not get that high given the 200 hour resistance level. However, the economic numbers may lead to a rise toward the level.  So be aware and prepared.

US Weekly Initial/Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index due out today Posted: 20 Aug 2009 04:49 AM PDT Initial Claims will be released at 8:30 AM. Expectation is for a decline to 550 K from 558 K last week.  The 4 wk average came in at 565 last week up from 556.5K the week prior.  The gain was the first in 6 weeks.  The Continuing Claims which has been falling of late, is expected to rise to 6215K from 6202K.  Although the data for both measures have been improving, the Initial Claims still are at high levels and the Continuing Claims improvement is thought to include some workers who’s benefit time period has run out.  The US Leading Indicators for the month of July will be released at 10:00 AM along with the Philadelphia Fed Index.  The Leading Indicators is expected to show a 0.7% increase.  This would be the 4th increase in a row - the first time the index has risen 4 consecutive months since July 2004. The Philly Fed Manufacturing index is expected to improve to -2.0 from -7.5. This index is the second regional indice for the Month of August to be released. Last week, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose more than expected to 12.08 (vs 3.0 expected).   The data should be favorable as a bottoming scenario is in place.  The problem is will demand follow the supply increase due to inventory replenishment.   This is what the market is struggling with at the moment.

Sterling approaches 100 hour M/A Posted: 20 Aug 2009 04:07 AM PDT Sterling has come off 130 pips from highs made after release of retail sales figures earlier in the session and is now poised to break lower through its 100 hour M/A (1.6466). A break below here may bring  Gbp/Usd down to next support level which is the 1.6430 area. If it holds look for the pair to attempt to break higher above 1.6500 where the 200 hour M/A lies.

Swiss ZEW survey Posted: 20 Aug 2009 02:02 AM PDT Swiss Zew economic survey came in at 18.6, higher than the prior reading of 0.0. there were no estimates for this number. Usd/Chd trading at 1.0655.

Gbp Retail Sales m/m came in at as expected at 0.4% Posted: 20 Aug 2009 01:34 AM PDT Gbp Retail Sales m/m came in at as expected at 0.4% y/y came out better then expected at 3.3%; survey at 2.7% Money supply m/m came out better at 1% Money supply y/y also came out better then expected at 13.6% Gbp/Usd rallied up to a high of 1.6604 then pull back to 1.6570

Swiss trade balance Posted: 19 Aug 2009 11:19 PM PDT Swiss trade balance came in at 2.35B, better than the expected 1.79B and 1.57B prior reading. Not much market reaction as Usd/Chf remains trading arorund 1.0650 and Eur/Chf 1.5175.

Sterling trading above 200 hour M/A Posted: 19 Aug 2009 09:57 PM PDT Sterling has been trading above its 200 hour M/A (1.6500) since it broke during the US session. It seems after this break there has not been that much upward momentum. It will be interesting to see if Europe will attempt to push Gbp/Usd lower. The pair has traded down to 1.6503 during Asian session. If it does break  the 100 hour M/A lies at 1.6469.

8-20 Economic Calendar Posted: 19 Aug 2009 08:50 PM PDT

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610