Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Dallas Fed Index Rises
• Pending Home Sales Data Falls, Milwaukee Data Rises
• Chicago Purchasing Manager Higher than Forecast
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.28.2011
• US Personal Income Rises, Spending Slightly Lower & PCE Core Stays the Same
• Income up, Spending not as good
• Canada GDP Data Better & Current Account Lower
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• US Personal Income & Spending, Along with Core PCE Index Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada Current Account & GDP Data due at 8:30AM
• Feds Bullard says economy is in good shape
• Eurozone CPI
• 2-28 Economic Calendar
• Japanese prelim ind production worse at 2.4%, retail sales better 0.1%

Dallas Fed Index Rises Posted: 28 Feb 2011 07:34 AM PST Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index comes in at 17.5 vs a prior of 10.9.

Pending Home Sales Data Falls, Milwaukee Data Rises Posted: 28 Feb 2011 07:01 AM PST NAPM-Milwaukee:     Survey: 59.9     Actual:  63.0      Prior: 57.0 Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  -2.3%    Actual: -2.8%      Prior:  2.0%     Pending Home Sales (YoY):      Actual: -4.4%     Prior:  -3.6%

Chicago Purchasing Manager Higher than Forecast Posted: 28 Feb 2011 06:48 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.28.2011 Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:57 AM PST Good Morning: The USD dropped to the lowest level since November 2010-as speculation that the Fed will continue to maintain it’s economic stimulus program weighed heavily on the dollar. The Euro moved higher-as markets participants anticipate that the ECB may signal that they are looking to increase interest rates. Higher than anticipated inflation in the EU is prompting the ECB to look at increasing borrowing costs in the region. If this is the case-than the interest rate differential will widen-which will be negative for the greenback. The Asian equity markets were mixed, European markets are higher-and US Futures are also higher at this time. Oil:$97.75                                                                     Gold:$1412.50 TIME FOR EST PRIOR 08:30AM PERSONAL INCOME  JAN O.4%  O.4% 08:30AM PERSONAL SPENDING  JAN  O.4%   O.7% 08:30AM PCE DEFLATOR (YoY)       JAN 1.30% 1.20% 08:30AM PCE CORE (MoM)  JAN  O.1%   O.O% 08:30AM PCE CORE (YoY) JAN  O.8%   O.7% 09:45AM CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER  FEB  67.5O   68.8O 10:00AM NAPM-MILWAUKEE  FEB  6O.O       57.O 10:00AM PENDING HOME SALES MoM  JAN -2.40%    2.O% 10:00AM PENDING HOME SALESYOY  JAN     ——-   -3.6O% 10:30AM DALLAS FED MANUFACT  FEB     12.6O      1O.9O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Personal Income Rises, Spending Slightly Lower & PCE Core Stays the Same Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:38 AM PST Personal Income:           Survey: 0.4%         Actual:  1.0%     Prior: 0.4%         Qtr IV vs  Qtr III Personal Income:  3.9% vs 2.5% Compensation:  3.3% vs 3.4% Wage & Salary:  3.4% vs 3.5% Disposable Inc:  3.3% vs 1.7% Personal Income: 4.4% vs -5.1% Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.4%         Actual: 0.2%         Prior: 0.7%       Revised: 0.5% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.3%         Actual:  1.2%         Prior: 1.2%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual:  0.1%         Prior: 0.0%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  0.8%         Actual:  0.8%         Prior:  0.7

Income up, Spending not as good Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:34 AM PST Canada GDP MoM rises by 0.5% vs 0.3% expected With Income up by a robust 1.0% and Spending up by a less than expected 0.2% (vs 0.4%), the savings rate rose by 5.8% from 5.4%. This is the highest level since August 2010.

Canada GDP Data Better & Current Account Lower Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST Gross Domestic Product (MoM):    Survey:  0.3%         Actual: 0.5%        Prior:  0.4%    Gross Domestic Product (YoY):    Survey:  2.8%         Actual: 3.2%        Prior:  3.0%       Revised: 3.2% Quarterly GDP Annualized:     Survey:  3.0%         Actual: 3.3%        Prior:  1.0%     Revised: 1.8%

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Feb 2011 05:04 AM PST

US Personal Income & Spending, Along with Core PCE Index Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Feb 2011 04:39 AM PST

Canada Current Account & GDP Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Feb 2011 04:34 AM PST

Feds Bullard says economy is in good shape Posted: 28 Feb 2011 04:09 AM PST The only wild card is the Middle East. QE can be used as a policy tool if needed because the economy slows because of the rise in oil prices. Fed is determined to get back to normal.

Eurozone CPI Posted: 28 Feb 2011 02:05 AM PST Eurozone CPI y/y came in at 2.3%, weaker than the 2.4% expected. Core CPI y/y came in at 1.1%, weaker than the 1.2% expected. Eur/Usd mad enew highs going into this data and currently trades just off the highs at 1.3823.

2-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 Feb 2011 09:16 PM PST

Japanese prelim ind production worse at 2.4%, retail sales better 0.1% Posted: 27 Feb 2011 03:52 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 25 Feb 2011 02:49 PM PST   CLICK HERE FOR THE PDF REPORT

USD/CAD holding against key support level near 0.9794 Posted: 25 Feb 2011 08:25 AM PST The USD/CAD is holding against a key support level near 0.9794, during Friday morning’s trading. There is tremendous pressure with a long term bias to the downside. The next major level below this comes into view near 0.9707. On the top side there is a double area of resistance at 0.9927, which coincides with the blue downward sloping trend line. Above this the 38.2% fibonaci level is holding at 0.9950. Above that the 50% level is seen at 0.9999 PAR. It will likely take fresh activity in next weeks trading to spur the pair back on to activity.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Rises
• FXDD Week ahead in trading this Monday 9:30am
• GDP Data Comes Out Weaker than Expected
• GDP & Personal Consumption Data due at 8:30AM
• Swiss KOF Economic Barometer
• UK Q4 GDP
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• French Consumer Spending
• 2-25 Economic Calendar
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence -28; worse than expected.
• Tokyo CPI
• FXDD Traders Course Lesson 5 Feb 25 2011
• USDCHF making a new low
• The NY Midday Forex Commentary. Register for next webinar
• USDJPY tests trendline support and finds some profit takers

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Rises Posted: 25 Feb 2011 07:05 AM PST February Michigan consumer sentiment grows 2% to 77.5 vs the predicted survey of 75.5. Feb Final vs. Feb Prelim vs Jan 2011 Consumer Confidence: 77.5 vs 75.1 vs 74.2 Economic Conditions: 86.9 vs 86.8 vs 81.8 Economic Outlook: 71.6 vs 67.6 vs 69.3

FXDD Week ahead in trading this Monday 9:30am Posted: 25 Feb 2011 06:58 AM PST FXDD Week ahead in trading this Monday, February 28th at 9:30am - Sign up to save your seat online

GDP Data Comes Out Weaker than Expected Posted: 25 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST Annualized:      Survey: 3.3%          Actual: 2.8%            Prior:  3.2%          GDP Price Index:     Survey:  0.3%         Actual: 0.4%       Prior:  0.3%  Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  0.4%         Actual: 0.5%        Prior: 0.4%    Personal Consumption:     Survey: 4.2%          Actual: 4.1%           Prior:  4.4%

GDP & Personal Consumption Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 25 Feb 2011 05:27 AM PST

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer Posted: 25 Feb 2011 02:37 AM PST KOF Economic Barometer came in at 2.18, stronger than the 2.08 expected. Usd/Chf trades at .9290 and Eur/Chf at 1.2815, relatively unchanged.

UK Q4 GDP Posted: 25 Feb 2011 01:35 AM PST UK Q4 GDP fell -0.6%, a downward revision from prior -0.5% reading. Gbp/Usd felt affects of this number, losing 30 points to currently trade at 1.6115.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Posted: 25 Feb 2011 01:09 AM PST Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at 1.5%, weaker than the 2.1% expected. Eur/Usd is just off session low (1.3794), currently trading at 1.3802.

French Consumer Spending Posted: 24 Feb 2011 11:47 PM PST French Consumer Spending m/m came in at -0.5%, stronger than the -0.7% expected. Eur/Usd continues to trade around 1.3820.

2-25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Feb 2011 08:47 PM PST

UK GfK Consumer Confidence -28; worse than expected. Posted: 24 Feb 2011 04:33 PM PST

Tokyo CPI Posted: 24 Feb 2011 04:31 PM PST The market had a limited reaction to Tokyo’s CPI which came in at -0.4%; worse than the -0.3% forecast and -0.2% prior reading.

FXDD Traders Course Lesson 5 Feb 25 2011 Posted: 24 Feb 2011 02:38 PM PST FXDD Traders Course Lesson 5 Feb 25 2011 - Watch now This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

USDCHF making a new low Posted: 24 Feb 2011 10:53 AM PST The USDCHF has just made a new low - moving through the low at 0.9239. The next major target is at 0.9190 where the bottom side trendline is found (see chart above).

The NY Midday Forex Commentary. Register for next webinar Posted: 24 Feb 2011 09:09 AM PST

USDJPY tests trendline support and finds some profit takers Posted: 24 Feb 2011 08:15 AM PST The USDJPY has moved sharply lower today and got within 9 pips of trendline support at the 81.55 level (see daily chart).  I would expect this level to continue to find profit taking buyers at least for the trading day today with a break being the risk.  On the hourly chart the last leg to the downside is steep (see chart below).  The price may have  reached a bottom against channel support, however. With the daily support and the support off this chart, there is reasons to lighten up at the levels. Of course, we know that trends are directional and fast, so any move below the levels would not be welcomed.  How will we know the bottom is in place and further upside is a possibility?  I think the first clue would be from the 5 minute chart where the 100 bar MA has been tested but not been able to sustain any momentum above the level (blue line in the chart below). The current MA comes in at the 81.81 level  A move above this level will be needed give the bulls any chance for a further move higher.  If it is taken out, the next target becomes the 200 bar MA at the 81.97 level (see same chart below) and ultimately a move above the 38.2% of the last move down at the 82.02. If these levels are taken out, the bulls should find some more upside momentum. If not, the bears remain firmly in charge.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests upside target on ECB Weber comments
• ECB Weber says only one way for interest rates…up
• Feds Bullard could adjust QE
• Economic Statistics: US Home Sales fall to 284K
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Feb 24th
• US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM
• GBPUSD moves above 100 hour MA at 1.6200 but has resistance above
• Gold moves higher as Mideast tension continues to dominate
• Durables good and bad, and Initial Claims better
• Jobless Claims Outlook Positive, Durable Goods as Expected with Ex Transport Lower
• NY Opening Forex Commentary for Feb 24th
• Durable Goods, Jobless Claims & Chicago Fed National Activity Data to be Released at 8:30AM
• UK CBI Realized Sales makes 8 month low
• Gbp/Usd tests 200 hour m/a
• Swiss employment level up 1.2% for the year

EURUSD tests upside target on ECB Weber comments Posted: 24 Feb 2011 07:28 AM PST The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.3811 level. A move above this level will likely lead to further buying. So far, the move higher has seen profit takers come in against the level. Risk is defined. Risk is limited.

ECB Weber says only one way for interest rates…up Posted: 24 Feb 2011 07:17 AM PST This is leading to a move higher in the EURUSD

Feds Bullard could adjust QE Posted: 24 Feb 2011 07:12 AM PST Would adjust QE program meeting by meeting Economic prospects better than November Oil prices significant for US consumers Job moves are slow and deliberate but expects unemployment to decline slowly

Economic Statistics: US Home Sales fall to 284K Posted: 24 Feb 2011 07:00 AM PST The Month supply rise to 7.9 months from 7.0 month last month. Median New Home Price $230,600 This is up 5.7% from a year ago. By regions: Northeast 34,000 vs 22,000 Midwest 41,000 vs 35,000 SOuth 143,000 vs 164,000 West 66,000 vs 104,000 Overall, a weaker report but if I were to rank importance at this point in the cycle the Existing Home sales is more important. With an overhang of supply still prevalent in the market, New Home construction is not the smart place to see advances. Builders and buyers realize this. So a substantial move higher is not really expected.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Feb 24th Posted: 24 Feb 2011 06:40 AM PST

US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM Posted: 24 Feb 2011 06:19 AM PST

GBPUSD moves above 100 hour MA at 1.6200 but has resistance above Posted: 24 Feb 2011 06:16 AM PST The GBPUSD has been bouncing between the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.6150 area and the 1.6200 level. The pair is breaking above the 100 hour MA at the 1.6200 level now and the market will now look for continued buying momentum.  The  high over the last eight hours of trading comes in at 1.6213 and a move above this level should lead to further upside momentum.  A failure on the break would likely lead to a rotation back to the downside. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the GBPUSD has resistance at the 200 bar MA at the 1.6206 level as well.  This area is therefore a tough level.   There could be profit taking sellers all the way up to the 1.6213 level.

Gold moves higher as Mideast tension continues to dominate Posted: 24 Feb 2011 06:04 AM PST Gold has moved higher again today, but the range is fairly narrow suggesting perhaps a better balance of buyers and sellers. With Saudi Arabia talking about increasing oil production, there is less an upward bias.  Nevertheless, the tension in the Middle East and oil prices still at the $100 a barrel price level, the safe haven trade seems to be continue to be in full swing. Of course the technicals, will give the clues about the fundamentals. So outlining the important levels is important. The price yesterday moved above the shallow trendline that defined the top earlier in the  week (see daily chart above). The low today dipped just below the trendline support $1409.67 level. This level will be a key borderline to watch on the downside today. From the daily chart, the next key topside target would extend up to the $1424 level where the November 2010 high comes in along with the 2011 high (1st trading day of the year). Off the hourly chart, there is topside trendline that comes in at the 1419.40 level currently. This is a closer target for the pair today and becomes the next target that has to be breached. On the downside, the high from yesterday at the $1410.95 level will be another support level.  If this level and the $1409.67 level (from the daily chart) are breached, some further profit taking can be expected. Until then,however, the bias is still to the upside for the pair.

Durables good and bad, and Initial Claims better Posted: 24 Feb 2011 05:37 AM PST Durable Goods headline number was as expected with a 2.7% gain (vs 2.8%) but the numbers are showing that ex Transportation fell by a much larger than expected -3.6% +0.5%. The decline however, was not as bad given the sharp revision in the previous month. That showed a revised 3% gain versus an initial gain of 0.5% so overall, there was good and bad in the report. The Initial Claims fell to 391K from a revised 413K (revised from 410K). Any improvement in jobs is good for the economy and should be good for the dollar. USDJPY is up a little on the news but the trend continues.

Jobless Claims Outlook Positive, Durable Goods as Expected with Ex Transport Lower Posted: 24 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey:  405K    Actual: 391K   Prior: 410K    Revised:  413K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3880K    Actual: 3790K    Prior: 3911K  Revised 3935K Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: 2.8%      Actual: 2.7%   Prior:  -2.5%    Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  0.5%      Actual: -3.6%     Prior:  0.5%    Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air:   Survey:  -1.0%     Actual:  -6.9%    Prior:  1.4%     Revised: 4.3% Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air:    Actual:  -2.0%    Prior:  1.7%      Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index:  Survey:  0.09%     Actual:  -.16%    Prior:  0.03%     Revised: %

NY Opening Forex Commentary for Feb 24th Posted: 24 Feb 2011 05:29 AM PST

Durable Goods, Jobless Claims & Chicago Fed National Activity Data to be Released at 8:30AM Posted: 24 Feb 2011 04:35 AM PST

UK CBI Realized Sales makes 8 month low Posted: 24 Feb 2011 03:05 AM PST CBI Realized Sales came in at 3 which is an 8 month low for the index. This number was off an estimate of 30 and prior reading of 37. Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6165.

Gbp/Usd tests 200 hour m/a Posted: 24 Feb 2011 12:29 AM PST Gbp/Usd tested its 200 hour m/a of 1.6146 in recent trade and could not break below. Short term resistance lies at 1.6165 which is the 61.8% fibo of move from 1.6272 down to 1.6099. Stronger resistance should come in at 1.6201 where the 100 hour m/a lies.

Swiss employment level up 1.2% for the year Posted: 24 Feb 2011 12:20 AM PST Swiss employment level y/y came in at 1.2%, inline with expectations. The number of people employed is 4.086 million, just above the 4.085 million estimate, Usd/Chf has been trading close to session lows in recent trade and is currently at .9380. Eur/Chf trades at 1.2735.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY tests 100 day MA and 50% retracement
• Existing Home Sales come out better at 5.36 MM
• Platform of the week training TODAY at 4pm
• Existing Home Sales expected at 5.22 MM
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Industrial New Orders rose 2.1% in December
• British Bankers Assoc. Mortgage Approvals
• BOE voted 3-5-1 to keep rate at 0.5%, bond plan at 200B
• Swiss PPI rose 0.1% in January , as expected
• French CPI down 0.2% in January
• 2-23 Economic Calendar
• USD/JPY Lower as Risk Unwinds - Somewhat
• Aussie construction work worse at 0.8%, wage price index slightly better at 1.0%
• Aussie data at 7:30 (eastern)
• Japanese trade balance .1918 T

USDJPY tests 100 day MA and 50% retracement Posted: 23 Feb 2011 07:13 AM PST

Existing Home Sales come out better at 5.36 MM Posted: 23 Feb 2011 07:01 AM PST The month supply comes in at 7.6 months. This is good. Short Sales are 37% of sales. All cash sales climb to 32%. Sales are at an 8 mo. high. Average price falls to $206,700 so the sales increase as price comes down Median Price also falls sharply to $158,800 from $168,800 Since 32% of sales were for cash, this suggests blocks of homes may have been bought at distressed prices. The demand seems to be in the lower end of the market. The thought is likely that more speculators are buying homes that they can later rent out. Earlier today, mortgage Applications rose by 13.2% after declining by -9.5% and -5.5% over the last two weeks. The Purchase index rose by 5.5%. The Refinancing Index rose by 17.8%. The average rate fell to 5% from 5.12%. This is down from a high of 5.14% two weeks ago. If we see refinancings increase, it could see be a signal that more people are being hired -especially at the higher rates (north of 5%). The housing changes proposed by Geithner a few weeks ago is likely to prevent certain people from buying. Increased foreclosures also points toward more rentals. As a result, the rental market will likely remain robust.

Platform of the week training TODAY at 4pm Posted: 23 Feb 2011 07:01 AM PST Platform of the week training TODAY at 4pm - FXDD AutoChartist will be covered. Register here

Existing Home Sales expected at 5.22 MM Posted: 23 Feb 2011 07:00 AM PST Month Supply was 8.1 months last month. I will be watching that for a clue as to the direction of the industry. Remember weather was horrible in January

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 23 Feb 2011 06:54 AM PST

Eurozone Industrial New Orders rose 2.1% in December Posted: 23 Feb 2011 02:07 AM PST EZ Industrial New Orders rose by 2.1% in December, a decline of  0.8% was expected. Eur/Usd has gained about 10 points on data, currently trading at 1.3710.

British Bankers Assoc. Mortgage Approvals Posted: 23 Feb 2011 01:37 AM PST BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 28,900, a shade below the 29,000 expected. This number has not affect on Gbp. Gbp/Usd currently at 1.6255.

BOE voted 3-5-1 to keep rate at 0.5%, bond plan at 200B Posted: 23 Feb 2011 01:34 AM PST Dale joined Sentance and Weale in vote for interest rate increase, as the market expected. Gbp/Usd rose to 1.6270, currently at 1.6250.

Swiss PPI rose 0.1% in January , as expected Posted: 23 Feb 2011 12:47 AM PST Swiss PPI for January came in at 0.1%, as expected. Usd/Chf trades at .9475 and Eur/Chf at 1.2855.

French CPI down 0.2% in January Posted: 22 Feb 2011 10:34 PM PST French CPI m/m came in at -0.2%, weaker than the -0.1% expected. No affect on Eur/Usd as the pair trades at 1.3695.

2-23 Economic Calendar Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:45 PM PST

USD/JPY Lower as Risk Unwinds - Somewhat Posted: 22 Feb 2011 07:32 PM PST We have seen risk trades unwind and a flight to quality over the last 24hrs on the back of geopolitical turmoil (North Africa/Middle East) and a major earthquake in New Zealand.  However, the dynamic has changed somewhat as we see the EUR/USD rally on rate increases being priced in following hawkish comments out of Europe and that USD sell off seems to be affecting the USD/JPY pair which has moved down to the 50% retracement of the latest move and coincidentally the 100 day moving average. It will be interesting to see if the pair can find support at this level, even if the USD were to move lower against the Euro.

Aussie construction work worse at 0.8%, wage price index slightly better at 1.0% Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:35 PM PST

Aussie data at 7:30 (eastern) Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:13 PM PST

Japanese trade balance .1918 T Posted: 22 Feb 2011 03:53 PM PST Trade exports (y/y) - Survey: 7.4   Actual: 1.4   Prior: 13.0 Trade Imports (y/y) - Survey: 8.1   Actual: 12.4   Prior: 10.6 The market had a limited reaction to the release.

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