Forex Market Updates & Commentary

US S&P Case-Shiller Data
Canada Retail Sales Data Lower
Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30AM
ECB’s Mersch; may warn of upside inflation risks on March 3rd
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
Swiss Trade Balance
German GfK Consumer Climate
2-22 Economic Calendar
Turmoil & Outlook Push Risk Lower
Earthquake weakens NZD
Cable Trades Down to 100 Hour Moving Average
Kiwi inflation expectations as expected at 2.6%
Fitch affirms Japan’s downgrade, with stable outlook.
NZ Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 9 pm (eastern)
Moody’s changes Japan’s Aa2 rating outlook to negative.

US S&P Case-Shiller Data

Posted: 22 Feb 2011 06:03 AM PST

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind: Actual: 142.42 Prior: 143.85 Revised: 143.80

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA: Survey: -0.50% Actual: -.41% Prior: -0.54% Revised: -.55%

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY): Survey: -2.30% Actual: -2.38% Prior: -1.59% Revised: -1.62%

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI: Actual: 130.38 Prior: 135.48 Revised: 135.64

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI (YoY%): Survey: -3.40% Actual: -4.13% Prior: -1.51% Revised: -1.36%

Canada Retail Sales Data Lower

Posted: 22 Feb 2011 05:36 AM PST

Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:46 AM PST

ECB’s Mersch; may warn of upside inflation risks on March 3rd

Posted: 22 Feb 2011 02:34 AM PST

Eur/Usd jumped 40 points to 1.3612 on news.

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Posted: 22 Feb 2011 01:45 AM PST

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at -5.3B, better than the -0.2B projected.

This is a good number for GBP as it quantifies the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month,

Gbp/Usd recieved a 15 point bump to 1.6170.

Swiss Trade Balance

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 11:05 PM PST

Swiss Trade Balance came in at a 1.96B surplus, stronger than the 1.65B surplus forecasted.

Usd/Chf trades at .9480 and Eur/Chf at 1.2865, relatively unaffected.

German GfK Consumer Climate

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 11:02 PM PST

German GfK Consumer Climate came in at 6.0, stronger than the 5.8 expected and 5.7 prior reading.

Eur/Usd has not felt any affect from number as the pair continues to trade around 1.3590.

2-22 Economic Calendar

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 08:42 PM PST

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Turmoil & Outlook Push Risk Lower

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 07:38 PM PST

From the turn of the trading day we have seen extreme volatility in FX markets as global geopolitical turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East continues to hold the headlines and recently we have seen Moody’s downgrade Japan’s Aa2 rating outlook to negative (reiterated by Fitch Ratings.) On the back of this news the EUR has sold off across the board most notably against the CHF and the USD as a flight to quality and safety is on investors minds. The EUR/USD is off over a full figure this session as it trades below the 50% retracement of the move from the November 2010 highs. The 100 day moving average could be tested below that in the short-term and a more significant USD trade could be in store as the aforementioned issues continue.

eurusd

Earthquake weakens NZD

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 07:02 PM PST

A few hours ago an enormous earthquake hit Christchurch, New Zealand leaving multiple fatalities; the NZD has since sold off following the tragedy. It appears that from both an hourly and daily perspective the next downside target is the .7500 handle.

.75035 is a full hourly retracement on the move from Feb 15th lows to Friday’s highs.

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Seen here, the pair is testing the 61.8% daily line on the move from December 16th up to the high on Feb 8th. Continued selling could see the pair back at .7500; the low on Feb 15th and 16th.

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Cable Trades Down to 100 Hour Moving Average

Posted: 21 Feb 2011 06:23 PM PST

After trading mildly during the U.S session, which was on holiday, the GBP/USD saw some selling after Asia came into the equation. See below, the pair traded all the way down to the 100 hour moving average which comes in at 1.6165, but is recovering slightly. If pullback continues, the first topside target is the 38.2% line at 1.61898.

2-21-hourly