Forex Market Updates & Commentary

EURUSD heads to new lows. 100 day MA a focus
Surprise! US Employment Report confuses traders
Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Hard, Unemployment Rate Lower
US Unemployment comes in mixed
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.4.2011
US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Data Due at 8:30AM
The Technical Levels to eye through the US Employment
ECB Notwotny retracts inflation remark
Canadian Employment Rate Worse
Canadian Unemployment in 5 minutes…
ECB’s Paramo speaks to reporters in Spain
Market Stagnant in Anticipation of U.S. Non-Farm at 8:30
Italian CPI slightly better: 0.4%
In 20 minutes…
UK Halifax HPI better at 0.8%; sterling moves higher on the release.

EURUSD heads to new lows. 100 day MA a focus

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved to new lows and is approaching the key 100 day MA level. The market will be watching the 1.3566 level and the 38.2% of the move down at the 1.3595 for bias clues. IF the levels can hold, the downside pressure should remain. If the price moves above each, the bearishness loses some of its steam.

fxdd-pic-1896

Surprise! US Employment Report confuses traders

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:54 AM PST

Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Hard, Unemployment Rate Lower

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey: 146K Actual: 36K Prior: 103K Revision: 121K

Change in Private Payrolls: Survey: 145K Actual: 50K Prior: 113K Revised: 139K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey: 10K Actual: 49K Prior: 10K Revised: 14K

Unemployment Rate: Survey: 9.5% Actual: 9.0% Prior: 9.4%

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp: Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.1%

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp: Survey: 1.7% Actual: 1.9% Prior: 1.8%

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees: Survey: 34.3 Actual: 34.2 Prior: 34.3

US Unemployment comes in mixed

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:30 AM PST

NFP : 36 vs 146 expected - surprise
Private Payroll: 50 K vs 145K - surprise
Unemployment Rate: 9.0% - surprise
Manufacturing :49K vs 10K expected - surprise
Hourly earnings +0.4% vs 0.2% - surprise
Benchmark survey changed show 300K less jobs in 2010
The underemployed fell to 16.1% from 16.7% last month

This is a confusing report. USDJPY is indicative. Sharp fall on the payroll changes, followed by a rally back higher on the unemployment rate. The weather likely had an effect with Construction falling (-38K) along with Transportation jobs. The Manufacturing job increase is strong.

Labor force deline of 600,000 leads to sharp fall in the unemployment rate

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.4.2011

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:28 AM PST

Good Morning:

A quiet session overnight before this morning’s US employment data.

The USD stayed near it’s weekly high, as speculation that the employment data this morning will show that the US added more jobs.
The majors traded in narrow ranges as traders squared up positions before this morning’s release.
With a large blizzard that caused problems throughout a big section of the country during the time that the US government gathers the NFP data-the numbers this morning may be a bit misleading. We will wait and see.

Protests in Egypt gained support as they called for today to be the “day of departure” for President Mubarak.
Today may well be a “decisive” day in Egypt’s future-and the world will be watching.

World equity markets rose-US Futures are also higher at this time.

Oil:$91.13 Gold:$1348.70

TIME		FOR	EST.
8:30A.M.	CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS	140K	103K
8:30A.M.	CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLS	140K	113K
8:30A.M.	CHANGE IN MANUFACT. PAYROLLS	10K	10K
8:30A.M.	UNEMPLOYMENT RATE	9.50%	9.40%
8:30A.M.	AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP.	0.20%	0.10%
8:30A.M.	AAVG. HOURLY EARNING YoY ALL EMP.	1.70%	1.80%
8:30A.M.	AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMP.	34.3O	34.3O

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

For those lovers of US “Football”-enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl.

US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:09 AM PST

The Technical Levels to eye through the US Employment

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:37 AM PST

ECB Notwotny retracts inflation remark

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:15 AM PST

In a German newspaper yesterday, ECB Notwotny had implied that the ECB inflation projection was 1.8%. This was above the ECB last projection of 1.5%, it is still below the 2.0% threshold the ECB likes to maintain. The problem is the forecast is not to be released for another month. CPI inflation is currently above that level at 2.4%. This gives more credence to the more calming remarks from Jean Claude Trichet after their interest rate meeting, but it let the proverbial cat out of the bag.

However, Notwotny is now retracting the comment saying that the 1.8% prediction is not that of the ECB.

Canadian Employment Rate Worse

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:00 AM PST

Unemployment rate - Survey: 7.6% Actual: 7.8% Prior: 7.6%
Net Change in Employment - Survey: 15.0K Actual: 69.2K Prior: 22.0K

Canadian Unemployment in 5 minutes…

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 03:56 AM PST

ECB’s Paramo speaks to reporters in Spain

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 03:37 AM PST

We are always following our mandate.
See short term pressures on inflation due to energy.
Inflation expectations “anchored” in line with effects.
Important to avoid second-round effects.
ECB’s bond buying independent of EFSF decisions.
Bond purchases will help “normalize” debt markets.
ECB decisions not “contingent” on government decisions.
ECB can only lend to solvent institutions.
We have “all levers” to stem banks addiction to funds.
ECB “closely” monitoring price developments.

Market Stagnant in Anticipation of U.S. Non-Farm at 8:30

Posted: 04 Feb 2011 02:44 AM PST

So far this session most pairs have been trading sideways as the market waits in anticipation of the U.S. non-farm employment change number due out in less than 3 hours. Seen here the EUR/USD has been trading inside of a 3o pip range as we are now half way through the current trading day. Additionally: the USD/JPY has a 19 point range and USD/CHF a 35 point range.

*Note: ECB President Trichet is due to speak at 6:30.

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