Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Weber to step down as head of Bundesbank
• EURUSD fails on move below and moves higher
• EURUSD moves back above the 100 day MA
• IMF demand more changes in Greece
• Philadelphia Fed Survey shows increased confidence
• Michigan Sentiment comes in as expected
• Fed’s Geithner on the Wires
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• EURUSD holds 100 day MA at 1.3541. 1.3507 eyed
• US Trade Balance Unchanged
• US Deficit widens, but Canada surprises
• Canada Merchandise Trade Data Stronger
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.11.2011
• Gold bullish but still contained despite tension
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for February 11th is avaialble for viewing

Weber to step down as head of Bundesbank Posted: 11 Feb 2011 07:41 AM PST After the rejection as the next head of the ECB failed this week, it is not a surprise that Axel Weber has announced he will step down from his position of President of the Bundesbank on April 30th. Meanwhile, Italian Finance Minister Tremonti is on the newswires saying Italy is supporting Mario Draghi as the replacement for Jean Claude Trichet citing that he is an “excellent candidate.”

EURUSD fails on move below and moves higher Posted: 11 Feb 2011 07:31 AM PST

EURUSD moves back above the 100 day MA Posted: 11 Feb 2011 07:23 AM PST The 1.3507 break failed and the price moved higher. The price is back above the 1.3541 level which is the 100 day MA. A failure to extend the downside, should lead to short covering as the weekend approaches.

IMF demand more changes in Greece Posted: 11 Feb 2011 07:20 AM PST The WSJ is reporting that Greece is on track for stabilizing the economy but it needs to accelerate economic changes and commit to large-scale privatization. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703786804576138012480589274.html?KEYWORDS=imf+greece

Philadelphia Fed Survey shows increased confidence Posted: 11 Feb 2011 07:01 AM PST GDP Estimate 3.6% for current quarter vs 2.4% GDP estimated to be 3.2% growth in 2011 vs 2.5$ previously Unemployment is projected to average 9.1% in 2011, and 8.5% in 2012 and 7.8% in 2013 NFP is estimated to grow by 129,100 in the current quarter and 188,300 over the 2nd quarter.  For 2011 they see and average of 134,900 in 2011 and 226,100 in 2012. Although better, these estimates are consistent with a modest recovery and is likely not enough to prompt a move by the Fed in 2011 at least.  Next week the Fed will release their estimates for the Central Tendencies for 2011 and beyond. The Fed in the November report estimated that Unemployment would average 8.9% to 9.1% in 2011.

Michigan Sentiment comes in as expected Posted: 11 Feb 2011 06:56 AM PST Comes in at 75.1 vs expectation of 7.50. This is up from 74.2 and the highest level since January 2008. Despite the higher level, the index remains around the low levels from 2005 to 2008 Source:Bloomberg

Fed’s Geithner on the Wires Posted: 11 Feb 2011 06:52 AM PST Says: Housing reform will proceed ‘very carefully’ Americans must have access to affordable housing Private capital will fill gap left by government exit Housing faces ‘fundamental change’ to government role Changes will reduce government vulnerability Seeks to move toward legislation in next couple of years There’s consensus on a path toward reform GSES will meet commitments during transition

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 11 Feb 2011 06:18 AM PST

EURUSD holds 100 day MA at 1.3541. 1.3507 eyed Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:50 AM PST

US Trade Balance Unchanged Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST

US Deficit widens, but Canada surprises Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:34 AM PST The US Trade deficit widened on the surge in oil imports. Total imports increased by 2.6% Exports increased by 1.8%. Exports to China climbed to a record high. The number is for December and should lead to lower GDP all things being equal. In Canada there Trade situation moved to a surplus of 3B C$ and this has the USDCAD moving lower.

Canada Merchandise Trade Data Stronger Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:34 AM PST Canada Int’l Merchandise Trade:    Survey: -0.3B   Actual: 3.0B   Prior: -0.1B   DEC vs. NOV Billions $ Total Balance: $2.999 vs -$0.115 United Stated: $5.090 vs $2.987 Japan: $0.083 vs $0.036 European Union: $0.380 vs $0.386 Other OECD: -$0.730 vs -$1.035 All Other: -$1.825 vs -$2.488

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.11.2011 Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:27 AM PST Good Morning: Geopolitical events took center stage in all markets as tensions mounted throughout the Middle East after President Mubarak defiantly refused to leave office immediately-prompting further protests across Egypt.  President Mubarak handed Vice President Suleiman day to day powers, as he reiterated that he plans to stay on as President until elections which are planned for September 2011.  These events in Egypt will have negative effects for the markets overall. The Egyptian stock markets has been closed for 2 weeks-and there is no set date for the exchange to reopen. The USD rose as investors seek the safe refuge of the greenback amid worldwide problems. Oil  rose after President Mubarak’s comments, with the markets anticipating  instability to continue within the Middle East.  The main concern is any increase in interruptions of shipping through the Suez Canal. Equity markets are lower-and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$87.17                                                           Gold:$1363.40 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. TRADE BALANCE  DEC. -$40.5B -$38.3B 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  FEB.P 75.O 74.2O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Gold bullish but still contained despite tension Posted: 11 Feb 2011 05:22 AM PST Despite the tension in Egypt, Gold has been fairly contained. Good resistance above seems to be attracting the sellers. On the downside there has been some buying support against the 100 hour MA. SO the battle lines are drawn with resistance above and support below. Which way will the market break.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for February 11th is avaialble for viewing Posted: 11 Feb 2011 04:53 AM PST

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