Friday, February 18, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Iranian troops shoot at protesters

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:11 AM PST

It is being reported that Iranian troops shoot at protesters. Watching Gold and CHF

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USDJPY remains between the “Goal Posts”

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:07 AM PST

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USDJPY is in between the Goal Post as defined by the 100 hour MA aat the 83.50 level and the 200 hour MA at the 83.14 level currently. When it trades in between these levels I call the situation “trading between the Goal Posts”.  The levels become support and resistance but on a break higher or lower, the market should find momentum in the direction of the break. The price has been contained between the Goal Posts for the last 24 hours.

EURUSD eases back down and finds buyers

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:58 AM PST

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The EURUSD eased back down after the NY surge higher. The move to the highs stalled a the 1.3644 where three separate attempts above the level were tried and failed. Omie, a FXDD fan, pointed out, the level corresponded with the 50% retracement of the move down from the February high to the February low (see chart above).

The correction to the downside has found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the days move (1.3609 low versus 38.2% level at 1.3607).  The price  found buyers which has taken the price back toward the earlier high for the day.  (see chart below).  

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The 1.3338/44 level is the next upside target resistance (trendline and the 50% level cited above on the daily chart).  I expect intraday sellers against the level with stops on a move above.

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The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:19 AM PST

Watching EURUSD corrective selling levels for clues

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:32 AM PST

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The EURUSD surge higher took the price from 1.3546 to 1.3644 in a short period of time as shorts were forced to cover.  The surge higher was likely helped by the selling that forced the pair down earlier in the day.  The market traders got caught. They were forced to cover.

Now the question is are there more shorts out there. In which case, expect to see buyers emerge between the 1.3615 to 1.3626 level.  These levels represent the highs from earlier in the day.   The other key level to hold would be the 1.3607 level which is the 38.2% of the surge higher (see chart above).  

So far, the correction has only come down to the high from the first few hours of trading today. IF this is the least the market can do, it suggests the shorts are still caught and worried, and a move to the 1.3662 level is the next target and could happen quickly.

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Another target level above comes in at 1.3686

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.18.2011

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:27 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Euro lost steam overnight as German Producer Prices rose faster than expected-thus fueling speculation that monetary officials may need to increase interest rates in the region, which would put a stranglehold on any economic recovery.  German PPI was up 1.2% for January-twice what analysts expected.  Investors are starting to get weary of the debt crisis and uncertainty that is plaguing the Euro Zone.
Cable had a good day-on the heels of stronger than expected Retail Sales.  Year to year data shows that Retail Sales in the UK rose 5.3%, showing strong signs of growth as the UK pushes itself out of the economic bob-slade-forex-trading-8-150x200 doldrums that has been weighing heavily on the country.

World equity markets were mixed, and US Futures are slightly higher.

Oil:$86.40                                                               Gold:$1385.20 

No Major US Data Today.

FXDD WILL BE AT THE NY TRADERS EXPO  at the Marriott Marquis in New York City from Feb.20-22-  Come by and say hi (booth #5607)
 
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

EURGBP rises with the EURUSD

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:18 AM PST

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The EURGBP surged higher with the EURUSD but is running into 100 hour MA and the 50% midpoint of the 4 day trading range (at 0.8401-03) that has contained the up and down trading of late in the currency pair.  This level should be an area that traders lean against to take profit, with stop buying above.

EURUSD surges on ECB comment. Resistance at 1.3637

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:10 AM PST

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ECB Bini Smaghi has commented that the ECB may have to tighten rates in a Bloomberg report, and this caused the EURUSD to surge higher. The price moved above the 200 hour MA in the process and is currently taking out the high for the day at the 1.3626 level. The next target resistance comes in at the 1.3637 level and above that the 1.3661 level (trendlines in the chart below). Earlier today the EURUSD was sold off on the back of banking concerns. Borrowings from banks at the ECB were elevated this week which could suggest bank funding issues. The higher rate comment has negated that news, but it may still solicit the sellers at higher levels against key technical levels. So be aware.

ECB Bini Smaghi says may need to raise interest rates

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:02 AM PST

This is sending the EURUSD sharply higher in early NY trading

The NY Opening Forex Commentary

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:56 AM PST

CAD core CPI (m/m) 0.3% and core CPI 0.0%

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:01 AM PST


Canadian CPI at 7 am

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:28 AM PST

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2-18-cad-core

U.K. PM Cameron Speaking in London

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:25 AM PST

  • U.K recovery will be choppy.
  • Gov’t policy means BOE can keep rates lower for longer.
  • Path to rebalancing the economy is difficult.
  • Balls attack on King shows a complete “lack of judgment”.

Zhou Speaks to Bloomberg TV

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 02:29 AM PST

PBOC Governor Zhou made comments to Bloomberg television that the reserve ratio hike is just one means to fight inflation and that China will also raise rates to counter inflation if necessary. He added that China will allow more Yuan gains.

China raises reserve ration by 50 basis points.

Posted: 18 Feb 2011 02:27 AM PST


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