Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD back down toward support
• Business Inventories Rise & Housing Market Index Stays the Same
• Cast your vote for the FXStreet.com BEST Awards
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• NYSE and Deutsche Borse accept merger deal
• EURUSD slows NY decline and rallies back toward upside resistance
• US Business Inventories & Housing Market Index due at 10AM
• Empire Manufacturing & Import Price Index Rise as Retail Sales Fall Lower
• Retail Sales weaker, Empire Manufacturing a touch higher
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.15.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Feb 15th is available
• Import Price Index, Retail Sales & Empire Manufacturing Data due at 8:30AM
• Turkey central bank leaves benchmark rate at 6.25%
• BOE Inflation Letter
• Euro continues higher, finds 61.8% on hourly

EURUSD back down toward support Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:14 AM PST

Business Inventories Rise & Housing Market Index Stays the Same Posted: 15 Feb 2011 07:09 AM PST

Cast your vote for the FXStreet.com BEST Awards Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:55 AM PST  FXStreet is conducting their Forex Best Awards for 2011. Voting will be closed in less than 48 hours, on Wednesday Feb 16th at 08:00 PM EST (that is 1 am GMT on Feb 17th). The survey is available on all the pages of FXstreet.con: http://www.fxstreet.com (look for a yellow bar at the top of our pages).  If you do not see that bar it means they’ve already taken to the survey or said previously you did not want to participate. One vote per computer is allowed. The link below shows the complete list of all nominees with their corresponding links. I am honored to be included as one of the nominees. Your vote would of course be appreciated (but feel free to vote your conscience of course). Thank you for your consideration. CLICK HERE TO VOTE!!

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:26 AM PST

NYSE and Deutsche Borse accept merger deal Posted: 15 Feb 2011 06:25 AM PST

EURUSD slows NY decline and rallies back toward upside resistance Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:53 AM PST The data at 8:30 AM out of the US was mixed. Retail Sales were weaker (revisions were also lowered a touch). The Empire Manufacturing report was a touch stronger. Import prices showed increased prices for goods. Oil prices rising will of course lead to that result as will a weaker dollar. The EURUSD prior to the report was falling. The price moved below support at the 50% of the days trading range at the 1.3505 level - falling to 1.3498. However, the price has moved back higher and trades toward the key 100 day MA again at 1.3541 ( blue line in the daily chart below). Above that level is the 38.2% of the move down from the February 9th high to the low reached yesterday with that level coming in at the 1.3548 level (see hourly chart below).  The level held the top earlier today (with high at 1.3949). Will it hold it this time as well?  If not and the price moves higher, the next target be the 100 hour MA at the 1.3573 level (blue line in the hourly chart). On the downside now, watch for support against the 1.3515 level (38.2% of the days range - see chart below). A break below the 1.3505 level muddies the water again as the ebbs and flows of the market dominate with neither the bulls or the bears taking charge.

US Business Inventories & Housing Market Index due at 10AM Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:45 AM PST

Empire Manufacturing & Import Price Index Rise as Retail Sales Fall Lower Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:36 AM PST Price Index(MoM):   Survey:  0.8%    Actual: 1.5%    Prior: 1.1%   Revised: 1.2% Import Price Index(YoY):    Survey: 4.4%    Actual: 5.3%    Prior: 4.8%   Revised:  5.1% Advance Retail Sales:     Survey:  0.5%    Actual:  0.3%     Prior:  0.6%     Revised:  0.5% Core Retail Sales:     Survey:  0.6%    Actual: 0.3%   Prior: 0.5%    Revised:  0.3%

Retail Sales weaker, Empire Manufacturing a touch higher Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:30 AM PST The US Retail Sales rose by 0.3% in January vs 0.5% (was 0.6%) in December Ex Autos (core) rose by 0.3% also versus 0.3% (was 0.5%) in December In a seperate report the Empire Manufacturing index rose to 15.43 vs 11.92 Components were the following: Prices Paid 45.78 vs 35.79 last month Prices Received 16.87 vs 15.79 last month New Orders 11.80 vs 12.39 last month Shipments 11.31 vs 25.39 last month Delivery Time 0.00 vs -6.32 last month Inventories 9.64 vs 4.21 last month Unfilled Orders -4.82 vs -11.58 last month Number of Employees 3.61 vs 8.42 last month Average Workweek 6.02 vs 2.11 last month Import prices were higher at 1.5% for the month of January The dollar has weakened on the reports

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.15.2011 Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:20 AM PST Good Morning: Continued disharmony in the Middle East brought Brent Oil to a 2 year high.  With the region controlling 3/5 of the world oil reserves, the protests are causing concern for global economies.  With Egypt’s Mubarak ceding power to the military-the protests in the region are growing.  Bahrain is now in it’s second day of protests against the government, and protesters in Yemen were marching toward the presidential palace.  Iran also saw demonstrations in the biggest anti government rally since the disputed presidential elections in 2009. On the FX arena-the Euro had good news as the German ZEW investor confidence survey rose for the 4th month in a row.  Both German and France missed their target with GDP data-but the markets shruged this off, as many feel that the weather in Europe had an effect on the data. In the UK-CPI data showed inflation at 4%-which is adding enormous pressure for UK monetary officials. Oil:$85.27                                                                           Gold;$1373.10 TIME FOR  EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. EMPIRE MANUFACTURING FEB. 15.OO II.92 8:30A.M. IMPORT PRICE INDEX MoM JAN. 0.90% 1.10% 8:30A.M. IMPORT PRICE INDEX YoY      JAN. 4.40% 4.80% 8:30A.M. ADVANCE RETAIL SALES  JAN. 0.50% 0.60% 8:30A.M. RETAILS SALES LESS AUTOS JAN. 0.50% 0.50% 8:30A.M. RETAILS SALES EX AUTOS & GAS JAN. 0.40% 0.40% 9:00A.M. TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS DEC. $40.0B $39.0B 9:00A.M. NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS DEC. $85.1B 10:00A.M. BUSINESS INVENTORIES DEC. 0.70% 0.20% 10:00A.M. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX  FEB. 17.O 16.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Feb 15th is available Posted: 15 Feb 2011 05:15 AM PST

Import Price Index, Retail Sales & Empire Manufacturing Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 15 Feb 2011 04:37 AM PST

Turkey central bank leaves benchmark rate at 6.25% Posted: 15 Feb 2011 04:01 AM PST

BOE Inflation Letter Posted: 15 Feb 2011 02:35 AM PST Osborne: Retreat on deficit cuts would make MPCs job harder. Deficit retreat would risk rate tightening. Commodity price rises are driving U.K inflation. Dropping fiscal plans would stoke inflation. Welcomes BOE view that inflation will fall by 2012. King: VAT, pound decline, and energy prices are boosting inflation. Sees “great deal of uncertainty” on inflation outlook. MPC central view is for inflation to ease in medium-term. Oil, Pound impact may have been below 2%.

Euro continues higher, finds 61.8% on hourly Posted: 15 Feb 2011 02:28 AM PST The session high of 1.3546 finds the EUR/USD at the 61.8% line on the move mentioned earlier (Feb 11th down to yesterday’s lows), but immediately came off. The euro is still continuing higher despite mostly worse than expected economic releases out this session with the exception of a better than expected Italian trade balance. Further upward momentum could see the pair visit 1.35764: where the 100 hour moving average and an old support level converge.

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