Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- AUDUSD breaks higher
- USDJPY reaches target level at the 38.2% Fibo support.
- USDCAD back down at support
- Dollar not impressed with better data
- Canada Wholesale Sales Lower
- Philly Fed surges, Mortgage delinquencies fall to 8.2%
- EURUSD moves higher toward next target
- The NY Morning Forex Commentary
- US Philadelphia Fed Index & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM
- Gold moves higher on Mideast tensions
- USDCHF falls further on Iran tension. Approached next target at 0.9498
- USDJPY breaks below the 100 hour MA and floor support
- Jobless Claims Rise, CPI Data Better Across the Board
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2011
- Initial Claims rise more. CPI a touch higher
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:32 AM PST
The AUDUSD moved above the 1.0072 area on the daily chart. This was a high from January 19th and the high for trading from Monday.
Off the hourly chart it also represents the 50% of the move down from the February 4th high to the low reached on the 15th. That level came in at the 1.0071 With the two charts in agreement, when the price moved above the 1.0072 level, the market used the level as a spring board for the last move higher. That move has taken the price up to a new week high for the day and week of 1.0130. On the downside now, if the market has room to roam to the upside, look for the price to hold corrections down to the the 1.0088 (38.2% of the surge higher - see chart below). If that level holds, the bullish bias remains in charge.
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| USDJPY reaches target level at the 38.2% Fibo support. Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:49 AM PST
The move below the 100 hour MA and floor support at the 83.49 level targeted the 83.12 level (SEE PRIOR POST BY CLICKING HERE). The low has reached the 83.14 and is finding the bids. Look for dip buyers against the level with additional support at the 200 hour MA at the 83.04 level. ON the topside the 83.47-50 level will be the target. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:43 AM PST
The USDCAD tested the 0.9849 level on the move back above the old low at 0.9830 but could not break through. With the dollar selling, the USDCAD has sold off too. The price is back down testing the 0.9830 level. Will buyers come in at the level? The risk is limited, and so is the range. Above 0.9850 or below 0.9830? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dollar not impressed with better data Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:17 AM PST
The better/great Philly Fed index (highest since Jan 2004) is not really impressing the dollar. The EURUSD sold off but has rebounded back higher toward the high. The USDJPY rallied but is back down and making new lows. The USDCHF is back down testing its key support target at the 0.9494-99 area. There could be a couple reasons for this. One is the market is moving to risk pairs and selling the dollar. The other idea (and more logical) is that the inflation component rising to 67.2 from 54.3 (CPI was higher as well), with ambivalence from the Fed, could be the thief that keeps the investors from the dollar. Don’t fight it. The dollar is under pressure. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST
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| Philly Fed surges, Mortgage delinquencies fall to 8.2% Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST Leading Indicators (MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.1% Prior: 1.0% Revised: 0.8% JAN vs. DEC Philadelphia Fed: Survey: 21.0 Actual: 35.9 Prior: 19.3 Philadelphia Fed index surges to 35.9. This is the highest level since January 2004 FEB vs. JAN Prices Paid: 67.2 vs 54.3 Prices Received: 21.0 vs 17.1 New Orders: 23.7 vs 23.6 Shipments: 35.2 vs 13.4 Unfilled Orders: 14.9 vs 8.7 Delivery Time: 10.0 vs 2.3 Inventories: 2.1 vs 6.8 Number of Employees: 23.6 vs 17.6 Average Workweek: 12.8 vs 10.6
In a separate report the Mortgage Delinquincies for the 4Q fell to 8.225 from 9.13%. This was better than expected.
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| EURUSD moves higher toward next target Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:55 AM PST
The EURUSD has moved through the 1.3585 level (50% of the move down from the Feb 9th high) and approaches the high for the day at 1.3609. A move above this target will look toward the 1.3623 level and the 1.3630 level (See chart above). This is the 61.8% and the trendline resistance. This area should provide good selling interest from the market. On the downside, the market will want to see the price stay above the 1.3575-85 level for the pair. Failure to do so, will likely be a disappointment for the pair. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:34 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Philadelphia Fed Index & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:18 AM PST
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| Gold moves higher on Mideast tensions Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:00 AM PST Gold has also moved higher on the back of Iranian ship moving toward the Suex Canal. The price is above the $1379.56 level and looks toward $1383.50 trendline resistance as the next target (see hourly chart below).
The market players will be looking for the 1379.50 level to provide support on any corrective move now. This level is the 61.8% of the move down from the Jan 2011 high to the 2011 low trading range .
In addition, the level is the 38.2% of the days trading range today. With support defined at the level, a break back below will not be welcomed and likely suggests the market has the mideast event discounted.
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| USDCHF falls further on Iran tension. Approached next target at 0.9498 Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:47 AM PST The talk in the market again is that Iran says will send 2 warships to the Suez Canal has the USDCHF moving lower. The next level of support/target for the USDCHF comes in at the 0.9498 level. A move through this level should solicit more flight to quality buying for the CHF (selling of the USDCHF)
On the topside, staying below the 0.9536 will be eyed by the intraday momentum traders. This is the 38.2% of the sharp fall to the downside. If the market is caught long, sellers should enter against this area.
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| USDJPY breaks below the 100 hour MA and floor support Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:38 AM PST
The USDJPY is breaking below the 83.49 level and will start to look toward the 83.12 level. The Initial Claims were not supportive of a measureable improvement in the employment situation. The Inflation data was not good inflation from growth. Look for the price to find seller against the 83.54 level now.
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| Jobless Claims Rise, CPI Data Better Across the Board Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST Consumer Price Index (MoM): Survey: 0.3% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.5% CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM): Survey: 0.1% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.1% Consumer Price Index (y/y): Survey: 1.6% Actual: 1.6% Prior: 1.5% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.9% Actual: 1.0% Prior: 0.8% CPI Core Index SA: Actual: 222.587 Prior: 219.179 Consumer Price Index NSA: Survey: 220.176 Actual: 220.223 Prior: 219.179 Jobless Claims: Survey: 400K Actual: 410K Prior: 383K Revised: K Continuing Claims: Survey: 3893K Actual: 3911K Prior: 3888K Revised: K | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2011 Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST
The Yen took center stage in overnight trading-as speculation that the unrest in the Middle East will continue and spread throughout the region-thus the demand for safer assets will grow. The nervousness through the Middle East was further increased today-as reports that Iranian warships on their way to Syria are looking to pass through the Suez Canal. Currencies that are perceived as safe havens will be the winners in the near future-until geopolitical issues calm down. Demonstrations for the 3rd day in Bahrain escalated with protesters demanding the ouster of the Prime Minister, and demanding a taste of democracy. Demonstrations also continued in Yemen and Libya. The GBP was also stronger as comments from BOE member Andrew Sentance that interest rates should rise in the near end. World equity markets were lower-as are US Futures. Jan 2011 CPI prints at .4% , and jobless claims increased by 25K. Oil:$84.88 Gold:$1379.80
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Initial Claims rise more. CPI a touch higher Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:34 AM PST Initial Claims moved to 410 vs expectations of 400k. Last week, the number came in at 383k (revised to 385k) but it was influenced by weather. CPI rose by 0.4% vs 0.3%, The ex food and energy came in at 0.2% vs 0.1%. YoY came in at 1.6% and 1.0% for ex food and energy Canada sales rose 0.8%. The dollar initial surged higher but has since come back down. The EURUSD remains contained by the 200 hour MA above and the 100 day MA on the downside. Looking for a break.
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