Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Bernanke plays it safe in his opening remarks.
- Bernanke Unemployment to likely remain high
- Bernanke to speak shortly. What does he see now?
- USDCAD moves toward support. Range tight today.
- Rebroadcast of live education from Feb 8th 2011
- EURUSD tests upside resistance pre-Bernanke
- FXDD to present on FXStreet tomorrow
- Fed’s Geithner on the Wires
- Gold pushes against upside resistance
- The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- MBA Mortgage Applications are down 5.5%
- Euro Testing Previous Support
- UK trade balance -9.247B
- UK Trade Balance in 15 Minutes..
- GBP/USD Advancing
| Bernanke plays it safe in his opening remarks. Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:27 AM PST FOMC’s Bernanke played it safe in his opening comments, saying Unemployment will likely remain high for some time. What is high? Is it 9% is it 9.5%, is it 8%. The dollar has fallen on the less positive remarks. Q and A will likely keep the market on guard. For a look at the key levels now in the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD, click on the following link. |
| Bernanke Unemployment to likely remain high Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:00 AM PST
For the complete text of the Chairmans written testimony click on the FOLLOWING LINK Regarding employment the chairman noted that the 1 MM jobs created in 2010 is not sufficient to account for the number of new entrants into the labor market. Note, however, that despite that the unemployment rate has declined from 9.8% in November to 9.0% in January. It seems the Fed Chairman is either anxious to see a surge in job creation or he does not believe the unemployment rate. His question and answer portion will hopefully explore what the Fed Chairman thinks. He did not give any estimates or projections for GDP, Employment or inflation in his opening prepared remarks. The market seems to voting in terms of a more dovish Fed as the dollar has continued it’s move lower. |
| Bernanke to speak shortly. What does he see now? Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:59 AM PST
I will be interested to see the Fed Chairman’s estimates for the Fed’s Central Tendencies for GDP, Inflation and Unemployment. In November, the Fed was projecting unemployment to be between 8.9% and 9.1% in 2011. Since that time, the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.7% to 9.0%. Does the Chairman believe it? What about GDP? This is what I will be watching. |
| USDCAD moves toward support. Range tight today. Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:39 AM PST
The 200 hour MA at the 0.9923 level is the target support for the USDCAD. This level should provide support but if it gives way, expect further selling. The pair has been mired in a narrow trading range today with a high at 0.9954 and a low at 0.9928. The Average True Range over the last 22 trading days (a proxy for a month of trading) is at 73 pips (see daily chart below) . The 26 pip range today, suggests that there likely will be an extension at some point today. As a result, anticipate a move in the North America session today. For traders you can anticipate a move on a break of either extreme. If the price moves above the 0.9954 level look for additional buying (use a tight stop -10/12 or so pips below the break point) . Conversely, a break of the 0.9928 level (followed by a move below the 200 hour MA) should signal lower levels for the pair (protect with a similiar tight stop of 10-12 pip). The trade is simply a range extension play. If a normal range is anticipated, the pair should have some room to roam in whatever direction the pair breaks.
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| Rebroadcast of live education from Feb 8th 2011 Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:38 AM PST
Rebroadcast of live education from Feb 8th 2011- Watch now This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| EURUSD tests upside resistance pre-Bernanke Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:19 AM PST
On the downside the 1.3661 level was the high for the day prior to the last move higher. The correction off the high came down to this level and found buyers. If the price can stay above this level the intraday shorts will likely feel the pinch/squeeze. |
| FXDD to present on FXStreet tomorrow Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:05 AM PST FXstreet.com - Free Access Day TomorrowJoin us on Thursday, February 10th at FXstreet.com LIVE and enjoy our guest experts’ webinars FOR FREE! FEATURED WEBINARS: Risk! Risk! Risk! at 16:00 GMT/11:00 am EST, by Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency and Trading Analyst at FXDD Defining risk is important for your forex trading. In this webinar, Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency Analysts from FXDD, will show some of the ways he chooses to define risk and how defining risk helps reduce trader’s fear US Pre-Market Open These webinars and more will be presented throughout the trading day. So register and enjoy! CLICK HERE FOR THE SCHEDULE IMPORTANT: FXStreet webinars are run using the hotComm technology (Live Audio and Video presentations). To attend, you need to have the hotComm software installed on your computer. More info go and important software information CLICK HERE |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2011 05:44 AM PST Says:
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| Gold pushes against upside resistance Posted: 09 Feb 2011 05:43 AM PST |
| The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 09 Feb 2011 04:53 AM PST FOMC Chairman Bernanke is to testify on Capital Hill today at 10:00 AM. For a preview and a look at the key technical levels to eye today in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF, watch today’s Morning commentary. |
| MBA Mortgage Applications are down 5.5% Posted: 09 Feb 2011 04:12 AM PST The weekly mortgage applications fell -5.5% for the current week after rising 11.3% last week. The average 30 year mortgage rate rose to a 5.13%. This was the highest rate in 10 months. The Purchase index fell 1.4%. The Refinancing Index fell 7.7%. As rates go up, it may have the effect of lowering things like the refinancing index, but if people can get jobs the 5.1% mortgage rate is still an attractive 30 year rate historically for a mortgage. New jobs may also allow someone to refinance whereas before they were not able to with their bank. |
| Posted: 09 Feb 2011 03:11 AM PST You can see below that the EUR/USD is testing the 1.3615 level, which has shown the pair hourly support multiple times this month. A sustained move through this level could see the pair visit 1.35912; the 23.6% fibo line on the hourly move from February 2nd highs to the low on the 7th. Continued support could see the pair back at the 38.2% line.
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| Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:33 AM PST |
| UK Trade Balance in 15 Minutes.. Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:14 AM PST
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| Posted: 09 Feb 2011 12:38 AM PST In recent trade, the GBP has been making gains against the USD and seems to be making a pass through the 23.6% line on the move from Feb 3rd highs to yesterdays lows. A close above this 1.6085 level could be a bullish signal in which case we would look to 1.61217 as the next target; both the 38.2% line and 100 hour moving average come in near this level.
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Prior to the FOMC Bernanke testimony on Capital Hill, the EURUSD has moved to test resistance against the 200 hour MA and the 50% retracement of the move down from the February 1st high to the low on February 4th. Those levels come in at the 1.3677 and the 1.3684 level respectively.
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