Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Fed’s Dudley on the Wires
• EURUSD tests intraday resistance
• The NY Morning Forex Commenatary for February 14th 2011
• Gold is moving higher on Middle East tension
• EURUSD continues selling in NY trade
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.14.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for February 14th
• Pimco’s Kashkari discusses the “New Normal”
• Rumors of Landesbank rescue deal weighs on Euro
• Eurozone Industrial Production declines 0.1% in December
• Eur/Usd trading below 38.2% fibo on daily
• 2-14 Economic Calendar
• Aussie home loand approvals rise 2.1% in December
• Aussie Home Loans
• Japanese GDP

Fed’s Dudley on the Wires Posted: 14 Feb 2011 07:09 AM PST Says: Predicts ’substantial amount of slack in labor markets’ New York Fed district economy paused in 4th quarter Sees signs of ‘pick-up’ in pace of U.S. economic growth U.S. housing industry ’stuck at a very low level’ New Jersey economy declined a bit through end of 2010 Inflation, unemployment rates ‘unsatisfactory’ Household deliquesces ‘begin to subside’ Unemployment ‘remains stubbornly high’ ‘Conditions are in place for stronger growth’ Expects ‘continued stability in inflation expectations QE helping to spur U.S. economic growth U.S. economy ‘healthier’ but ‘not yet well’

EURUSD tests intraday resistance Posted: 14 Feb 2011 06:56 AM PST

The NY Morning Forex Commenatary for February 14th 2011 Posted: 14 Feb 2011 06:38 AM PST

Gold is moving higher on Middle East tension Posted: 14 Feb 2011 06:10 AM PST Gold has moved higher in early NY trade. Although the Egyptian situation is defused with the Mubarek resignation and the desolution of the governement, there are some reports of political tension in the streets of Bahrain.  The Egyptian model of political freedom seems to have ignited protesters throughout the region. With increased tension comes increased interest in safe haven investments like Gold. From a technical perspective, there remains key resistance which is being approached against the 100 day MA at the  $1364.79 level. Just above that level at $1365.89 is the 50% of the move down from the January 2011 high to the January 2011 low. IF the price moves above these levels, there should be increased upward momentum On the downside, the move higher took the price above teh 100 hour MA on the hourly chart, at the $1361 level. Staying above this level keeps the bulls in charge today.

EURUSD continues selling in NY trade Posted: 14 Feb 2011 05:36 AM PST Selling in the EURUSD has continued in NY. Tension within the members regarding a debt restructuring in Ireland, and Greece is reluctant to sell state owned assets by as proposed by the ECB and IMF, has the EURUSD heading to the downside.  The finance ministers from the Eurozone meet today and tomorrow. From a technical perspective the pair is testing channel support at the 1.3428 level currently. The price has moved below the declining trendline, but the price is finding profit taking buyers against the level.  Although support may hold, the move below the 100 day MA today at teh 1.3540 level should keep the bears in control, with the next longer term target being th 1.3368 level which is the 50% of the move up from the January 2011 high to the Feb 2011 high. If support holds, look for intraday resistance above at the 1.3465 area where channel trendline can be found.  Above that the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.3477 level is found.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.14.2011 Posted: 14 Feb 2011 05:15 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro had a difficult overnight session. Concerns over the fate of German bank West LB, along with the resignation of  Bundesbank President Weber, added woes to Germany’s banking sector.  Negotiations over the weekend produced no results on the fate of the bank-and the European Commission has set tomorrow as a deadline to revamp the troubled bank.    On another note-Mr. Weber was widely expected to be a top candidate to replace Jean Claude Trichet as president of the ECB.  His resignation leaves a void in the leadership role at the central bank. The dollar rallied overnight-and pushed the EUR/USD pair lower by 100bps from the opening in Asia. Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed-and US Futures are slightly lower at this time. Oil:$85.57                                                       Gold:$1357.80 No Major Data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for February 14th Posted: 14 Feb 2011 05:13 AM PST

Pimco’s Kashkari discusses the “New Normal” Posted: 14 Feb 2011 04:23 AM PST Courtesy of Bloomberg Neel Kashkari from Pimco, is on CNBC talking about the “New Normal”.  His feeling is that growth can occur but not at the pace of the prior years. His thesis is based on the fact the household debt of the US consumer is so high it cannot sustain the level of spending.  The above chart (courtesy of Bloomberg) outlines his point. Although consumer debt has fallen in the last year, the prior year projections suggest that debt is simply too high to sustain growth.

Rumors of Landesbank rescue deal weighs on Euro Posted: 14 Feb 2011 02:42 AM PST The Euro is softer across the board as the Landesbank rescue appears to be hanging in the balance. There have been reports that savings banks are blocking the proposed rescue. Eur/Usd has traded down to 1.3451, Eur/Jpy to 112.08 and Eur/Chf to 1.3087 in recent trade.

Eurozone Industrial Production declines 0.1% in December Posted: 14 Feb 2011 02:06 AM PST EZ Industrial Production for December came in at -0.1%, inline with expectations but weaker than the prior reading of 1.4%. Eur/Usd traded down to 1.3460 on news and currently hovers just above at 1.3467.

Eur/Usd trading below 38.2% fibo on daily Posted: 14 Feb 2011 01:13 AM PST Eur/Usd is trading below 1.3488, which is the 38.2% fibo of move up from 1.2873 to 1.3868. If the pair can close below this would be a bearish signal with 1.3350-60 acting as next support. If Euro can hold 1.3541 is the 100 day M/A and be the first hurdleon its way to 1.3620-30 where better resistance lies.

2-14 Economic Calendar Posted: 13 Feb 2011 08:52 PM PST

Aussie home loand approvals rise 2.1% in December Posted: 13 Feb 2011 04:33 PM PST The AUD was unchanged following the release.

Aussie Home Loans Posted: 13 Feb 2011 04:31 PM PST

Japanese GDP Posted: 13 Feb 2011 03:51 PM PST Nominal GDP (q/q) - Survey: -0.5%   Actual: -0.6%   Prior: 0.6% GDP Annualized - Survey: -2.0%   Actual: -1.1%   Prior: 4.5% GDP (q/q) - Survey: -0.5%   Actual: -0.3%   Prior: 1.1% The market had a very limited reaction to the release.

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