Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• FXDD Weekend Forex Report
• Subscribe to FXDD Daily Forex Video Commentary
• GBPUSD below 200 hour MA and above 100 hour MA. What next?
• The $USDJPY moves through month midpoint at 90.16. 89.89 and 89.65 next targets
• October 30th 2009 Midday Forex Report is available for viewing
• The London Fixing was particularly volatile today. A look at the EURUSD and GBPUSD
• NZDUSD pressured today. Has it gone too high?
• USDCHF jumps again. SNB rumored to be in the market again
• EURUSD moves down toward support at 1.4771
• GBPUSD remains contained in by the range

FXDD Weekend Forex Report Posted: 30 Oct 2009 02:20 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.  Greg Michalowski runs through the majors, the commodity pairs, and the “risk pairs’ (AUDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY), in his weekly technical report. He analyzes each of the pair via the daily chart and the hourly chart and gives his bias from each perspective given the technicals.  If you want to recieve the daily commentary’s produced by Greg and Shawn, email Greg at greg@fxdd.com.  Alternatively, simple go to http://forex.fxdd.com and all the videos can be found there.  If you are interested in opening an account you can also email Greg and he will have a customer representative get back in touch with you.  Thank you for your continued business and have a great weekend. ——————————————————————————– Trading in the Foreign Exchange market involves a significant and substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your age, income, personal circumstances, trading knowledge, and financial resources. Only true discretionary income should be used for trading in the Foreign Exchange market. Any opinion, market analysis or other information of any kind contained in this email is subject to change at any time. Nothing in this email should be construed as a solicitation to trade in the Foreign Exchange market. If you are considering trading in the Foreign Exchange market before you trade make sure you understand how the spot market operates, how FXDD is compensated, understand FXDD’s trading policy and rules and be thoroughly familiar with the operation of and the limitations of the platform on which you are going to trade. This message and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed. It may contain sensitive and private proprietary or legally privileged information. No confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission. If you are not the intended recipient, please immediately delete it and all copies of it from your system, destroy any hard copies of it and notify the sender. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute, print, or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended recipient. FXDirectDealer, LLC reserves the right to monitor all e-mail communications through its networks. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorized to state them. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this message is indicative only, is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted.

Subscribe to FXDD Daily Forex Video Commentary Posted: 30 Oct 2009 11:46 AM PDT To all FXDD Customers, We are having some technical issues sending out our videos via the MT email system. Until that can be resolved, you can always find our videos by going to http://forex.fxdd.com . That will never change.  Alternatively, you can email me at greg@fxdd.com and I will be happy to send you the reports via normal email after they are produced.  The choice is yours. Thanks for your patience and your support, Greg Michalowski.

GBPUSD below 200 hour MA and above 100 hour MA. What next? Posted: 30 Oct 2009 11:05 AM PDT The 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.6445 level.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.6416 level.  The price has been very volatile but if the price can stay below the 1.6445 level on this correction, the downside might reassert itself. Keep an eye on the 1.6445 level with a break of 1.6416 likely to pressure further.  The Target on the downside? 1.6362 = 100 day moving average. The target on the upside, would be 1.6468.

The $USDJPY moves through month midpoint at 90.16. 89.89 and 89.65 next targets Posted: 30 Oct 2009 10:29 AM PDT In the commentary posted this morning we outlined the key resistance against the 100 and 200 hour MA (CLICK here for the post).  The price did use these key level as resistance,and this led to a sharp fall in the currency pair.  The price has now moved through the midpoint of the months high low range which comes in at the 90.16 level.  Stops are being triggered with little in the way of support until 89.55.  However, there may be some minor support at 89.89 which was the high price on October 14th.  Look for resistance at 90.16 with stops above.

October 30th 2009 Midday Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 30 Oct 2009 10:09 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

The London Fixing was particularly volatile today. A look at the EURUSD and GBPUSD Posted: 30 Oct 2009 09:12 AM PDT The London Friday Fixing (12 Noon New York time), was particularly brutal with the EURUSD falling sharply, the GBPUSD falling sharply only to bounce back higher after the event. The EURUSD moved to a low of 1.4721 (target was 1.4702)  and has bounce back up to where it is back up to test the 1.4771 level (midpoint of the months range).  I would expect sellers up at this level, but the market is extremely illiquid at the moment.  Look for a market pause with additional resistance at 1.4790. The GBPUSD had a more wild ride. The price broke below the flag trendline on the downside, rebounded then broke a 2nd time.  This move was the charm and the price moved to the 100 hour MA at the 1.6413 level and bounced back above the old trendline up to a high of 1.6522.  Your guess is as good as mine after that move.  My hunch is to the downside but with a stop above the 1.6526 level.

NZDUSD pressured today. Has it gone too high? Posted: 30 Oct 2009 08:35 AM PDT The NZDUSD is pressured today after rallying strongly yesterday on the back of the stronger US GDP. The pair has been trenling up for most of 2009 on the back of higher commodities and global recovery theme.  The geographic proximity to the growth areas of the world has also benefitted the pair.  However, the price has been under pressure of late and the Reserve Bank of New Zealands reluctance to talk about raising rates like its neighbor Australia, has the currency on the defensive.  In short, the pair could have gone too far too fast and is due for a correction. From a technical perspective, the price is below the trendline at the 0.7264 level.  Watch this level on the upside today.   If the price can stay below this level and close the week below, then the target from a longer term perspective could extend down to the 100 day MA at the 0.6834 level currently. Now this longer term and requires that the price stay below this trendline to start (and then being able to reach interim targets along the way) but it is worth noting on a Friday.  Shorter term, the price remains below the 100 hour MA at the 0.7362 level currently. This is bearish. The price is also below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.7286 level currently (and moving down).  As a result, the daily, hourly and 5 minute chart are all giving a negative bias. For a trade, as long as the price remains below 0.7264 and below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, the downside is preferred with the thought that the low from Thursday is the next target (0.7160).  A break below that level could increase the downward momentum. Like all the trades we analyze, the moves are dependent on completing the technical steps along the way, and keeping the bias to the downside.  IF that bias changes, the trades are covered. SO monitor the key technical levels along the way.

USDCHF jumps again. SNB rumored to be in the market again Posted: 30 Oct 2009 07:22 AM PDT Another rumor of the SNB in the market buying USDCHF and EURCHF The 1.0285 level is upside channel resistance. On the downside now, what the 1.0242 level for support. This is the midpoint of the move down from the end of September high.

EURUSD moves down toward support at 1.4771 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 07:19 AM PDT The midpoint of the October high low range comes in at 1.4771. This  was also a low level from Tuesday, held for a period on Wednesday and used the level as support yesterday.  Look for the price to provode some support today with a break, targeting 1.4702.

GBPUSD remains contained in by the range Posted: 30 Oct 2009 07:13 AM PDT The GBPUSD remains contained by the top and bottom flag formation. The topside resistance comes in at the 1.6566 level. The downside comes in at the 1.6504 level.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• October 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report
• US data as expected. Canadian GDP for August lower than expectations
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.30.2009
• $USDJPY approaches upside resistance starting at 91.31
• Live Training Re-broadcast from Thursday Oct 29 2009
• GBPUSD contained by channel. Looking for directional break as the week comes to a close.
• EURUSD moves lower as NY enters. Moves away from 100 hour MA/Fibo retracement level.
• $EURCHF soars then comes down on invervention rumblings
• Today’s Economic Data
• Eurozone Unemployment
• UK Nationwide HPI
• German Retail Sales
• 10-30 Economic Calendar
• Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires
• Aussie Private Sector Credit

October 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report Posted: 30 Oct 2009 06:52 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

US data as expected. Canadian GDP for August lower than expectations Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:46 AM PDT The 8:30 in the US came in more less as expected. The Personal Income and Spending was a touch higher but in line.  In Canada, the GDP fell by -0.1% for the month versus an expectation of +0.1%.  Absent a US reaction to their data, the USDCAD has taken the opportunity to move sharply higher. The pair is approaching retracement resistance at the 1.0785 level.  A move above this level will next target the highs for the week at the 1.0820 level.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.30.2009 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:39 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY was the overall winner in overnight trading.  Concerns that worldwide central banks are moving to quickly to discontinue the stimulus packages put into place to combat the global economic recession caused nervousness in the market place.  The main question being discussed by economists is if the recession is really over or not. Equity marksets are mixed, and US Futures lower this morning. Consumer spending fell in Sept, after the “cash for clunkers” rebate program ended. Oil:$79.35                         Gold:$1043.40 HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND and GOOD LUCK

$USDJPY approaches upside resistance starting at 91.31 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:33 AM PDT The 200 and 100 hour moving averages (green and blue line in the chart above), come in at the 91.31 and 91.41 level currently.  Look for these levels to provide upside resistance for the USDJPY today.  A break to the top side would target good resistance at 91.72 where the low from July and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from July is found. On the downside, look for support at the 91.01 level where the 100 bar MA is found on the 5 minute chart.  90.91 and 90.75 are further intraday support levels for today.

Live Training Re-broadcast from Thursday Oct 29 2009 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:30 AM PDT Watch the re-broadcast here from Thursday Oct 29 2009 HERE Also if you attended, and have not done so, please complete the survey. Thanks Greg and Shawn Next Training on Tuesday Nov 3 2009 4pm

GBPUSD contained by channel. Looking for directional break as the week comes to a close. Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:19 AM PDT The GBPUSD remains contained with a flag formation developing. The bottom trendline comes in at 1.6506.  The topside comes in at the 1.6568 level currently.  This is normally a bullish formation,however, I would prefer to see which trendline is broken.  In between traders can play the range by buying against the support and selling against the resistance.  A break should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break.  The downside target comes in at the 1.6468  then 1.6443 (200 hour MA - green line in the chart above). A break on the topside will look toward the  1.6600 area as the 1st target with additional resistance at 1.6620.

EURUSD moves lower as NY enters. Moves away from 100 hour MA/Fibo retracement level. Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:57 AM PDT The EURUSD moved lower as the NY entered.  The price move has taken the pair below the 1.4828 level where the 38.2% retracement and the 100 hour MA was located.  The price has been moving above and below this level for most of the day and this is the latest break.  Even though the moves today have not developed into a sustained trend, the longer a price stays around a key level without making a firm directional move, the more likely a move is forthcoming.  This break lower has extended to new lows and looks toward the next target at the 1.4771 level. This level is the midpoint of the October high low range (the month ends today). Look for sellers against a stop above the 100 hour MA.

$EURCHF soars then comes down on invervention rumblings Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:47 AM PDT Note, however, that there is a separate newswire report that no intervention has been seen.  The EURCHF shot up from a low of 1.5081 to a high of 1.5173 but has since moved back down to 1.5130 area.  The  pair remains near the midpoint of the range deemed to be neutral by the Swiss National Bank (1.5000 to 1.5300 range).  If the pair wanders down toward the base, there is likely to be the rumblings.  Today’s low may have been low enough to warrant a response (despite the dealer denials).  Note however, that each time the central bank has come in, the gains tend to be short lived and with the decline back down today, the pattern seems to be the same. By the way, the price peaked at the 100 day MA, which is more or less flatlined at the 1.5171 level (high 1.5173)

Today’s Economic Data Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:39 AM PDT In addition to the above schedule, the White House will release a report on the economic stimulus.  The report will highlight how 1 million job losses were saved.  The GDP rebound for the 3rd quarter is proof of it. The problem is that millions have lost their jobs  and the question becomes is there enough stimulus given the headwinds from job losses to continue the trend and probably just importantly, the people who are working will their confidence in the economy continue. Much is dependent on housing still. Much is dependent on things like the stock market.  Much will be dependent on how everyone else is feeling.  Even though millions have lost jobs, there still are many more who have kept their jobs.  Where all have suffered is in the wealth from decline home prices.  This has effected everyone and may keep the dollars in the pockets rather than out being spent during the Holiday Season.

Eurozone Unemployment Posted: 30 Oct 2009 03:08 AM PDT Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 9.7%, inline with estimates and up0.1% from last months 9.6% reading. Though the unemployment rate increased Eur/Usd and Eur/Gbp were both bought up a bit on release. Eur/Usd is up 10 pips to 1.4842 and Eur/Gbp traded up to .8985 and has now settled back to .8975.

UK Nationwide HPI Posted: 30 Oct 2009 12:05 AM PDT UK Nationwide HPI m/m came in at 0.4%, weaker than the 0.7% expected. Sterling is relatively unchanged after release, trading at 1.6535.

German Retail Sales Posted: 30 Oct 2009 12:03 AM PDT German Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.5%, weaker than the 1.0% expected. Y/y came in at -3.9%, weaker than the -2.2 expected. Not good numbers  for Euro. eur/Usd has lost 10 pips since release, currently trading at 1.4825.

10-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Oct 2009 08:42 PM PDT

Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:18 PM PDT Speaking at the Economic Club Dinner in Chicago, Secretary Geithner made the following comments: The U.S. GDP report today was ” very encouraging”. U.S financial system and economy are “stable”. The U.S. needs more investment and export-led growth. It is important to see more private demand lead growth. He sees a “remarkable” improvement in confidence in the U.S. We need to “lead against” the “financial headwinds”. There is still “uncertainty” facing the U.S. economy.

Aussie Private Sector Credit Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:34 PM PDT The AUD sold off slightly following the worse than expected release of Australia’s Private Sector Credit for the month of September. The details of that release are as follows: Private Sector Credit (MoM) - Survey: 0.2%   Actual: -0.2%  Prior: 0.1% Private Sector Credit (YoY) - Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 1.7%   Prior: 2.5%

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURUSD holding the 1.4771 level as stock action settles in
• Oct 29 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY jumps to topside resistance at 91.23/28 level
• EURUSD jumps above the 1.4771 level
• US GDP comes in better than expectations.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.29.2009
• US GDP to dictate the direction today. Due out at 8:30 AM
• $GBPUSD corrects 50% of the move down at 1.6471
• ECB Weber/EUs Junker on the newswires
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence
• UK Net Lending to Individuals & Mortgage Approvals
• German Unemployment Change Better Than Expected
• 10-29 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Industrial Production

EURUSD holding the 1.4771 level as stock action settles in Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:53 AM PDT The stock market is now open 25 or so minutes and the gains have been pared a little with the Dow up 41 points.  The EURUSD nevertheless remains above the key 1.4771 level which was the midpoint of the October high/low range.  THIS level will be watched closely today with buyers against the level and sellers likely on a break.  On the topside, the close from Tuesday came in at 1.4804. The market has stalled at this level.  Better resistance comes in at the 1.4827 level (38.2% of the move down) and the 1.4840 level (a key retracement level on the way down).  Pick low risk spots but expect further volatility for the morning with a large influence by the stocks.

Oct 29 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY jumps to topside resistance at 91.23/28 level Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:58 AM PDT The 200 hour MA is at 91.23. The 50% retracement is at 91.28.  This level should slow the rise. The markets are still digesting the data this morning and the stock market reaction will be a big influence as well.  A break above has the 91.52 as the next target (61.8% and 100 hour MA).

EURUSD jumps above the 1.4771 level Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT This level was the midpoint of the move up from the October low to the October high.  The level held support on the way down and broke below yesterday. The move above will be watched now. If the price can hold on a correction, the upside would next target 1.4827 and 1.4840 area.  Look for good sellers against this level.

US GDP comes in better than expectations. Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:32 AM PDT GDP up  3.5%.  Better than expectations. Consumption rose by 3.4% also better than expected.   Real GDP                                        3.5% Personal consumption                  3.4%               Durable goods                  22.3%  Gross private investment             11.5%  Exports                                            14.7%  Imports                                             16.4%  Government consumption           2.3%   Durable Goods purchases - up 22.3% - led the upside as the cash for clunker program kicked in and pared inventories. The change in inventories contributed 0.94% to the GDP.  Exports subtracted -0.53%. Governement added 0.48% and Personal Consumption added 2.36% (motor vehicles added 1.01%  for the quarter) and investment added 1.22% Initial Claims came in at 530K down from 531K last week. The Continuing Claims fell however to 5797 K from a revised 5,945K last month.  Canada Industrial Production Prices fell 0.5% (vs -0.2%) while Raw Material Prices also was lower than expectations at -1.1% vs -0.5% expecations.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.29.2009 Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:18 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD and JPY fell overnight ahead of this morning’s GDP data. Today’s data may show that the US economy may be exiting the recession. If speculation is correct on the GDP data-demand for higher yielding assets will rise. Asian and European equity markets were lower.  US Futures are looking positive for this morning’s opening. Oil:$77.76                   Gold:$1034.50 Today’s data: GDP Q3:                      exp: 3.2%                      prior:-.7% Jobless Claims:        exp: 525k                     prior: 531k Havae a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US GDP to dictate the direction today. Due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:17 AM PDT The US GDP will be released at 8:30 and set the tone for the day. The expectation is for a rise of  3.2% annualized.  The way the number is reported, the quarterly change from the prior quarter is annualized.  So a quarter on quarter gain of 0.8% may be annualized to a 3.2% annualized rate.  Within the report Personal Consumption is expected to rise by 3.1% after a decline of -0.9% last quarter.  This was boosted by things such as the cash for clunker program over the quarter.  The GDP was also boosted last quarter by an increase in government spending and other stimulative measures especially in the housing sector.  Note this is the first cut of the report and as such has some estimates of data which have yet to be released or are likely to be revised.  Typically a better number should benefit the stock market and in turn hurt the dollar.  THe opposite would be true for a worse than expected number.   Be careful however, that a weaker number may be interpretted as a delay in Fed policy change which would allow companies to continue to benefit from lower rates.  In other words, expect anything.  The story after will fit the market move.  Buyers and sellers will decide the direction.  So watch the charts for clues. When a key piece of economic data is released often the volatility increases.  As a result, so does risk in trading.  Therefore it is advised to be cautious and lessen positions if you do not feel comfortable with the risk.  Key levels to watch for the EURUSD, on the topside a move above the 1.4771 would be a positive development and would target a move to 1.4827 area. On the downside a break below the 1.4702 level should target lower levels for the pair (1.4673 the next target). For the GBPUSD watch the 1.6483 level on the upside.  With a break targeting the 1.6524 level.  On the downside, the 1.6419 level is support (200 hour MA).  Remember the 1.6362 level (100 day MA today).  For the USDJPY a break above the 90.92 level would be a good sign (back in the hourly channel).  91.23 is the next upside target.  On the downside, 90.16 is the midpoint of the move up from the October low.

$GBPUSD corrects 50% of the move down at 1.6471 Posted: 29 Oct 2009 04:38 AM PDT The GBPUSD has been the favored currency over the last few days, rising to the midpoint of the move down from Friday’s weak GDP day.  The midpoint comes in at the 1.6471 the high for the day extended to the 1.6476 level.  The September Mortgage Approvals were higher than expectations coming in at the 56.2K level versus expectations of 53.6K  and up from 53K last month. This was the highest level in 18 months. From a technical basis, the 1.6471 level will continue as upside resistance.  A break of the level will next target the 1.6524 level which is the 61.8% of the move down.   On the downside look for some small initial support at the 1.6443 level.  A move back through the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (currently at 1.6410 and rising ), should signal a move down toward the closing level from yesterday at 1.6372. REMEMBER the 100 day MA is 1.6362.  Next week the BOE meets and at that time they will decide whether to expand the 175 billion pound QE program.  The odds are pointing for a continuation in a close decision.

ECB Weber/EUs Junker on the newswires Posted: 29 Oct 2009 04:18 AM PDT Say that they may look to stop 12 month loans next year.    In addition EUs Junker is also speaking and he is commenting how the the EURO overvaluation hurts exports but that he is not all that worried about the level.  Like comments from Noyer yesterday, he also warns that the Chinese has to change thier attitude which is in reference to a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar.  As the dollar has fallen so has the Yuan and the Yuans decline vs the EURO is hurting their exports.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Posted: 29 Oct 2009 03:05 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -18, slightly weaker than the -17 forecasted, but slightly stronger than the -19 prior reading. This number normally is not a high impact market mover and falling in betwenn last months reading and the forecast should only add to the indifference. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.4750.

UK Net Lending to Individuals & Mortgage Approvals Posted: 29 Oct 2009 02:38 AM PDT UK Net Lending to Individuals came in at 7B asexpected. Mortgage Aprrovals came in at 56,215, better than the 53,600 forecasted.. Good number for the British Pound which has made gains most of the session. Not sure if this number will have that big of an impact based on current level of  Gbp. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6430, Gbp/Jpy at 149.10, Eur/Gbp at .8980 and Gbp/Chf at 1.6825.

German Unemployment Change Better Than Expected Posted: 29 Oct 2009 02:04 AM PDT German Unemployment Change came in at -26,000, better than the 17,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% , better than the 8.35 expected and 8.2% prior reading. This is a positive  indicator for the Euro which has lost about 300 points since the beginning of the week against the Usd. Eur/Usd is currently trading at 1.4743, the session high has been 1.4751.

10-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Oct 2009 08:51 PM PDT

Japan’s Industrial Production Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:11 PM PDT The Yen gained a bid on the back of a better than expected September Industrial Production reading. The release was as follows: Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:1.0%   Actual:1.4%   Prior:1.6%  Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:-19.3%   Actual:-18.9%   Prior:-19.0%

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• New Home Annualized sales level is worse than expectations. Sends EURUSD and GBPUSD back to support at 1.4771 and 1.6362
• VideoOct 28 Forex Market Update
• $EURUSD tests upside resistance at 1.4806
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.28.2009
• FXDD Online Training Thurs Oct 29 2009 4pm
• Durable Goods come in as expected.
• $EURJPY tests 134.84 after moving through the level in London morning.
• Durable Goods and New Home Sales due at 8:30 and 10:00
• GBPUSD continues move to the downside. Watch 1.6316 as upside resistance.
• $EURUSD moving through the 1.4771 support level.
• AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement support level at 0.9037
• German Import Prices
• 10-28 Economic Calendar
• NBNZ Business Confidence

New Home Annualized sales level is worse than expectations. Sends EURUSD and GBPUSD back to support at 1.4771 and 1.6362 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT The New Home Sales came in at 402K vs 440K expectations. The prior month was revised to 417K from 429K last month.  The Month supply of homes came in unchanged at 7.5 months This is down from 10.4 months a year ago which is good news, but the fall is disconcerting.  The EURUSD is back down testing the 1.4771.  Look for some support against the level. Meanwhile the GBPUSD has moved down to the 100 day MA at the 1.6362 as that currency pair continues to trade in a volatile fashion.

VideoOct 28 Forex Market Update Posted: 28 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Free Online Training Next Class Thursday Oct 29 2009 4pm New York Time SIGN UP HERE Note: The training takes place at FXDD.webex.com, you must sign in there at 4pm on the day of training. Thanks ———————————————- WATCH THE RE-BROADCAST HERE FROM TUESDAY OCT 27th 2009

$EURUSD tests upside resistance at 1.4806 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:52 AM PDT   Watch the 1.4806 level.  The level is where the 100 and 200 bar MA come in on the 5 minute chart. The Durable Goods data did not surprise on the downside and this keeps the GDP big up number tomorrow in tact.  This is leading to a profit taking bid.  Watch resistance.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.28.2009 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:49 AM PDT Good Morning: Speculation that central banks are beginning to make preperations to withdraw economic stimulus packages helped the JPY rise, as demand for higher yielding assets wanes. World equity markets fell, as disappointing earnings from SAP to Cannon added to stocks woes.  US Futures are lower this morning.  Commodities fell accross the board. Oil:$$79.05                 Gold:$1034.00 Durable Good prints at 1%–as expected. New Home Sales:       exp: 440K            prior: 429K Haave a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

FXDD Online Training Thurs Oct 29 2009 4pm Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:34 AM PDT FXDD Free Online Training Next Class Thursday Oct 29 2009 4pm New York Time SIGN UP HERE Note: The training takes place at FXDD.webex.com, you must sign in there at 4pm on the day of training. Thanks ———————————————- WATCH THE RE-BROADCAST HERE FROM TUESDAY OCT 27th 2009

Durable Goods come in as expected. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:31 AM PDT The Headline came in at +1.0% but the revision was lowered to -2.6% from -2.4%. The Ex Transportation value came in at +0.9% with a revision to -0.4% from 0.0% last month. Military aircraft led the transportation increase of 1.1%.  The commercial planes and automobiles declined.  Orders for non defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, fell by 0.2%. This is the measure used to calculate GDP and for the quarter the category showed a decline of -1.9%, but this was up sharply from a -14% plunge in the 2nd quarter. This will therefore contribute on a QoQ basis. Tomorrow GDP for the 3rd quarter is expected to show a 3.2% gain on an annualized basis.  The improvement is a bounceback from the 2nd quarter losses.   Although the 3.2% gains is a marked improvement, the calculations annualized the QoQ gain to an annualized rate.  As a result, a gain off a low level can be a bit misleading.  The report did not surprise to the downside.  As a result, the market is finding profit taking buyers.   GBPUSD has moved back above the 1.6316 resistance level and the EURUSD is back above the 1.4771.  Watch these levels on the downside to now provide intraday support.

$EURJPY tests 134.84 after moving through the level in London morning. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:26 AM PDT Yesterday we targetted the 134.84 level as target support (CLICK HERE FOR THE POST). Overnight the price 1st tested the level, bounced and then fell through the level to a new low of 134.35.  The price is now back up testing the 134.84 level.  Of course the economic data at 8:30 will have an influence with weaker data likely to continue the decline and stronger number starting a further upside correction. Be on alert.

Durable Goods and New Home Sales due at 8:30 and 10:00 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:13 AM PDT Below are the expectations for the respective releases. A weaker number should continue the dollar buying. A stronger number should lead to dollar selling. Earlier today the Mortgage Applications fell by 12.3% after a -13.7% decline last week.  The Purchase index fell by another -5.2%. This is after a -7.6% decline last week and a -5% decline the prior week.   The Refinance Index fell by -16.2% for the week after an equally as sharp -16.8% decline last week.   YoY, however, the refinance index is up 58% thanks to low mortgage rates.  The average rate for a 30 year mortgage fell to 5.04% from 5.07% last week.

GBPUSD continues move to the downside. Watch 1.6316 as upside resistance. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:50 AM PDT The GBPUSD has broken below the two day modest uptrend line at the 1..6328.  It has also moved below the 38.2% retracement level of the move up from the October low of 1.5706.  The level  comes in at 1.6316 and will now be upside resistance for the pair.  If the pair should move back above this level, we should see the pair move back up to the 1.6333 level.  The next downside target comes in at 1.6250 and below that the 1.6200 level.  Longer term, the GBPUSD has moved away from 100 day MA at the 1.6362 level and should start to put some room between the MA level (1.6362) and the price. The 1.6112/18 area has had some recent lows/highs and should slow a decline.  Below that is the 38.2% of the move up for 2009 which has seen the price move from a low of 1.3502 to a high of 1.7041.  This level comes in at the 1.5689. The low this month came in at 1.5706 as early buyers came in against the level.

$EURUSD moving through the 1.4771 support level. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:27 AM PDT The 1.4771  level is the 50% retracement level of the move up from the October 2nd low to the high this week.  Yesterday the price stalled at this level (well 1.4770) . Today,the low has reached 1.4773 so far.  A break should lead to lower levels for the pair, with the next stops. Overnight, the high reached the 1.4840 level.  The significance of that level?  It was the 38.2% retracement of the same move from October 2nd and the level that caused a gap move yesterday on the break to the downside.  The next target is the 1.4741 level for the pair which is the trendline support off the daily chart below.  The level after that is the 61.8% retracement level for the pair at 1.4702 (see hourly chart above). Longer term for the EURUSD it is important to target possible levels. Off the summer low price of 1.3748, the 38.2% retracement support comes in at the 1.4560 level.  Although this level is a ways off (and the reaching of the level is contingent on the pair remaining bearish on the short term and intermediate charts) , this is a modest longer term correction of the move up since the summer.  Below that level is the other support at 1.4405 and below that trendline support and 100 day moving average support at the 1.4359 area.

AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement support level at 0.9037 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:07 AM PDT As per yesterdays post (CLICK HERE), the 0.9037 level in the AUDUSD is the 38.2% retracement support for the pair.  The market just dipped to the level and has bounced modestly. Look for buyers against the level with stops on a move below.

German Import Prices Posted: 28 Oct 2009 12:02 AM PDT German Import Prices m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the -0.7% expected. This number though unfavorable for the Euro should have minimal market impact. eur/Usd currently trades at high of session 1.4840.

10-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 Oct 2009 08:52 PM PDT

NBNZ Business Confidence Posted: 27 Oct 2009 07:15 PM PDT The New Zealand Business Confidence for October was released slightly lower than the prior month at 48.2 versus 49.1 and Business Conditions had a reading of 30.5. The Kiwi had a positive reaction to this report moving off the lower part of its daily trading range. The pair has hit some resistance at the 21 hour moving average, which had supported that the pair throughout the NY trading day.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610