Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- October 16th 2009 Weekend Forex Report looks at a number of currency pairs to determine the bullish or bearish bias
- $EURUSD remains above 100 hour MA at the 1.4877 level
- USDCAD stays below resistance at the 200 hour MA (1.0425)
- GBPUSD key resistance at the 100 day MA today
| Posted: 16 Oct 2009 11:56 AM PDT |
| $EURUSD remains above 100 hour MA at the 1.4877 level Posted: 16 Oct 2009 10:10 AM PDT
The EURUSD has had one hourly bar close below the 100 hour MA today (1st hourly close below the moving average since 4:00 ET on October 12th). This move was reversed in the next hour. However, 4 separate hourly bars have moved below this key moving average today. Is this an indication of a further correction for the EURUSD? For those looking that way, the market did have a double top at the 1.4967 level yesterday and today. That often leads to some selling and indeed we did see that today. For the bulls, the move below and back above the 100 hour MA is signficant especially since the market has not been below thay key moving average since the 12th. Another thing in the favor of the bulls is the inability to take out the lows from Wednesday or Thursday. Those levels came in at 1.4839 and 1.4842 respectively.
On the shorter term chart, the price has moved above the 100 bar MA on the last move higher to 1.4911. However, the price is currently just below the 100 bar moving average at the 1.4887 level. If the price can stay below 1.4887 and next wander back below the 100 hour moving average at 1.4877 there may be some further selling into the Friday’s close. Watch these levels for the clues to the action in the pair. |
| USDCAD stays below resistance at the 200 hour MA (1.0425) Posted: 16 Oct 2009 08:00 AM PDT
The USDCAD has made some bullish overtures today. The price moved above what I conider key technical resistance at 1.0296 (goes back to 2008 when the price used the level as a ceiling and floor). That is bulish. The price has moved above the 100 hour MA which currently comes in at 1.0305 level. That is bullish.
The bearish slant is although the bias above the 100 hour MA is positive, we are currently seeing sellers against the 200 hour MA which comes in at the 1.0425 level. I would expect that the ability to hold the topside resistance against this level will encourage longs from lower levels, to take profit against this level and for new shorts to enter against a stop if the price moves above the moving average. So although there is reason for upside hope in the pair (above 100 hour and 1.0296), until the 1.0425 level can be breached, look for intraday sellers to take the low risk trade. On a break higher, however, expect continued short covering to target 1.0492 where the 38.2% retracment level is located. |
| GBPUSD key resistance at the 100 day MA today Posted: 16 Oct 2009 07:19 AM PDT
The 100 day MA for the GBPUSD comes in at the 1.6349 level. The price has moved above the level today on a number of occassions, most recently to a high of 1.6367 but each time the price has moved back lower. The level is more important on a daily close. However, the market will be paying attention to the level intraday as well. If the price trades above - buy. If the price trades below - sell. It should have a influence on trading intraday as well as being important longer term. |
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